reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-da...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, November 15, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales dip wow while PEV market share increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.00): 1HFY25: Results in line; expect strong earnings growth momentum in FY25-26. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target: HK$23.00): 3Q24: Core earnings up 81% yoy and 29% qoq, beating estimates. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$21.50 to HK$23.00. J...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AMATA AMATA CORP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
3816 MISC BHD
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
CPN-R CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds a...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close a...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 b...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Blue Sky Territory for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI Since late-February, we have discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500, and that as long as the S&P 500 is above 4983 the bulls remain in control. This area was right where this pullback halted, which is when we discussed our belief that downside was limited, followed by discussing that it was "quite possible" that the lows were in for this pullback (4/29/24 ETF Pathfinder titled "Pullback Complete?"). With the S&P 5...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RRJ RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
AVA AVISTA CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
NI NIHAO MINERAL RESOURCES INT'L
EXC EXCEET GROUP SE
PCG PG&E CORPORATION
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50...
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
IMO. IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PXD PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY
MRO MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
HES HESS CORPORATION
HAL HALLIBURTON COMPANY
FANG DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC.
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC.
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLR CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC.
AR ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
SPX SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
BKR BAKER HUGHES COMPANY CLASS A
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
NOV SERIES 1
APA NOV INC.
OVV APA CORPORATION
IWC OVINTIV INC
QQEW ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
JLL JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
APTS PREFERRED APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
JOE ST. JOE COMPANY
BAM.A BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. CLASS A
TRO. TARANIS RESOURCES INC.
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
MMI MARCUS & MILLICHAP INC.
HHC HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
INVH INVITATION HOMES INC.
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
IPI INTREPID POTASH
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
XLY AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
CTO CTO REALTY GROWTH INC
CCI CALAMOS GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE & DYNAMIC INCOME TRUST
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLRE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLC SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RYH THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLY ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communications Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communication Services. We are upgrading Financials to overweight with the Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF) and banks (KRE, KBE) breaking out to new highs -- add exposure. Additionally,...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall. Breakdowns Remain Absent. There continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level, ...
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT INC.
ROL ROLLINS INC.
IT GARTNER INC.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
WCN WASTE CONNECTIONS INC.
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Neutral Outlook Is Appropriate Market dynamics have deteriorated and we are cautious yet neutral overall. Deteriorating Market Dynamics. Small-caps continue to underperform, growth is outperforming vs. value, cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials) is underperforming defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care), U.S. (IWV) is outperforming foreign equities (ACWX) as the US dollar strengthens, high yield spreads are widening, the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1.40-1...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWCO INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF
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