reports
- Philip Burnett
A Signal for 1Q25 in AT&T FirstNet Connections?
FirstNet announced this morning that it has over 7MM FirstNet Connections as of 1Q25. That is up from 6.7MM connections at the end of 2024. Because of rounding, FirstNet net adds could be 275k-325k in 1Q25; this is generally in line with quarterly FirstNet adds over the past four years. While AT&T doesn't regularly disclose the split, at 2Q23 earnings they said that just over a third of FirstNet net adds were postpaid phones (the rest are non-phone devices). We would assume that there were 90k-1...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Philip Burnett
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT hybrids offer good value/Look for quality in the belly of the curv...
In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. As the credit space still looks relatively well bid, TMT hybrid yields offer an attractive opportunity with yields above 3.5%. Higher quality TMT hybrids or lower duration TMT hybrids look most attractive from a relative value standpoint, such as the Telia, Orange and KPN hybrids. The risk/return perspective of the Infineon hybrid note looks unattractive.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
What Does Carr’s DEI Merger Ban Mean for TMUS, Media and Other Deals
Immediately after the election, investors were excited about the prospect of easier government approvals of transactions. However, as we have previously discussed, that is not the way the review process is working out. A further indication of the transaction barriers came up over the weekend, as multiple articles appeared stating that FCC Chair Carr would block any deal that requires FCC approval where a party has a DEI program. We have previously written about how Carr’s view on DEI would app...
- James Ratzer
UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.4...
Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.
- VRS RESEARCH TEAM
- James Ratzer
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick Take: T-Mobile raises prices
We have been getting questions on press reports that T-Mobile is raising prices on certain legacy plans by $5/line. The price increases were actually leaked a few weeks ago. We wouldn’t normally comment on news that broke weeks ago, but thought we would use this as an opportunity to touch on a couple of data points that have emerged over the course of the last couple of weeks.
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Research Department
IBERIAN DAILY 13 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR, OHLA, TELEFÓNICA. Stock markets take a break European stock markets ended with gains, spurred by the solid US inflation data and the renewed possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine. The IBEX, the only European index in the red, stayed above 12,800 points. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were financials (Banks and Insurance), along with Industrials, whereas Retail and Basic Materials posted the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Spain, Janu...
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 13 MARZO + RDOS. EUROPA 4T’24. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: OHLA, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO, TELEFÓNICA. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 4T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Tregua en las bolsas Jornada de más a menos en Europa, que terminó con ganancias ayudado por el buen dato de inflación en EE.UU. y la posibilidad renovada de un...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Carole Braudeau
REL RELX PLC
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
UBI UBISOFT ENTERTAINMENT SA
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
MMB LAGARDERE SCA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
VIV VIVENDI SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
WPP WPP PLC
SOI SOITEC SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
TEF TELEFONICA SA
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
OVH OVH GROUPE
FORSE FORSEE POWER SA
VIRI VIRIDIEN
LOCAL SOLOCAL GROUP
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk (and TMUS) Prevail (Kinda) Over T and VZ at FCC
In a note last fall, we predicted that if Trump were elected, Elon Musk would be the most powerful force in telecom policy, elevating satellite priorities over the policy priorities of traditional communications networks. One of the issues we pointed to where that influence might be exercised involved potential SpaceX interference with T’s cellular network. This past Friday, that FCC addressed that issue, granting a conditional waiver to SpaceX regarding out-of-band emissions (OOBE) that will i...
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