reports
- Blair Levin
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- James Ratzer
Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 265p, +47%) Was 240p Upside beyond the mythical £3bn FCF t...
BT’s target to reach £3bn FCF by the end of the decade has almost become mythical in status. Initially set back in 2021, is it the longest-standing piece of guidance (ever) in the telecoms sector? Quite possibly – and yet we are only half-way there.
- Research Department
IBERIAN DAILY 16 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, CAIXABANK, CHANGES IBEX, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, NEINOR HOMES, TELEFÓNICA. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East halt stock market gains The trade agreement between the US and China, and the solid inflation data in the US, were overshadowed by the increased geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors and the only ones in positive territory were Energy, Utilities and Pharma, with Financial Services and Telecoms falling th...
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 16 JUNIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS, CAIXABANK, CAMBIOS IBEX, NEINOR, SECTOR ELECTRICO ESPAÑA, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: KERING, UNICREDIT. La tensión geopolítica en Oriente Medio frena la subidas de las bolsas El acuerdo comercial entre EE.UU. y China y los buenos datos de inflación en EE.UU. se vieron ensombrecidos por el incremento de las tensiones geopolíticas entre Irán e Israel. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores y los únicos en positivo fueron Energía, Utilities y Farma, fr...
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Credit Outlook update/An unstoppable force against an immovable object
As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
GFC GECINA SA
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
ORSTED ORSTED
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
ICAD ICADE SA
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
GRDDY GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Research Department
IBERIAN DAILY 09 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, ENCE, FERROVIAL, NATURGY, TELEFÓNICA, VISCOFAN. Stock markets try to climb above highs Despite the absence of good macroeconomic data last week, stock markets ended with gains, fuelled by the US (the S&P500 rose around +1.7%) and by the better employment data at the end of the week. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors last weekk were Technology and Pharma, whereas Autos and Media ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, the 1Q’25 GDP ...
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 09 JUNIO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAIXABANK, ENCE, FERROVIAL, NATURGY, TELEFÓNICA, VISCOFAN. Las bolsas siguen intentando superar los máximos A pesar de una semana sin buenos datos macro, las bolsas terminaron al alza con el empuje de EE.UU. donde el S&P 500 subió un +1,1%. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores de la semana fueron Tecnología y Farma frente a Autos y Media que fueron los que más cayeron. En la Eurozona el PIB 1T’25 se revisó al alza 0,3 p.p. hasta el 1,5% a/a mientras...
- James Ratzer
The company started seeing signs of recovery as subscriber losses begu...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +56%) Was 135p Target price/ model update: T...
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
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