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Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State

We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.

David Barden
  • David Barden

TMT Finance Conference Takeaways

We attended the TMT Finance Conference in NYC earlier this week and took the opportunity to meet with several private fiber companies. This short note highlights our takeaways from those meetings.

Ben Rickett ... (+2)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer

1&1 (Neutral, €22, +10%) United Internet (Neutral, €31, +13%) Telefoni...

With the Telefonica CMD around the corner (4 November), we revisit our 1&1 valuation and reassess potential synergies from German mobile consolidation. We estimate a transaction could value 1&1 equity at €6.7bn (€38/ share, +90% upside) assuming synergies are split equally, or potentially higher if Vodafone were also to bid.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+2)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Timothy Rahill

Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...

Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+2)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Timothy Rahill

Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...

Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...

David Barden
  • David Barden

3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive

If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 10/08/2025

SoftBank Group signs an agreement to buy ABB Robotics for $ 5.4bn|AXA announces repayment of the Legacy Perp TEC|

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 08/10/2025

SoftBank Group signe un accord pour l’acquisition d’ABB Robotics pour 5,4 mds USD|AXA annonce le remboursement du Perp legacy TEC|

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?

Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 10/06/2025

Seb issues a second major profit warning for this year|Isabel Marant steps back from designing collections|

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 06/10/2025

Seb fait un 2e gros profit warning pour cette année|Isabel Marant se met en retrait de la conception des collections|

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 06 OCTUBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: SANTANDER, SECTOR BANCARIO, TELEFONICA. EUROPA: SECTOR BANCARIO El Euro STOXX 50 rompe al alza sus máximos históricos del año 2000 Las bolsas europeas han continuado con las subidas y el Euro Stoxx 50 consigue marcar máximos desde el año 2000, pasando por alto el shutdown en EE.UU. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores fueron Farmacia, Tecnología y B. Consumo mientras que Energía (tras los recortes del crudo), Seguros y Viajes y Ocio terminaron c...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

AMX and Entel working on a joint bid for Telefonica Chile

According to a Bloomberg article, AMX and Entel are working on a joint bid for Telefonica’s Chile unit. AMX would be interested in the mobile assets of Telefonica Chile while Entel would buy the fixed business.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...

CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

BEAD: Update for 3 More States

In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

SATS’ Spectrum Deals with T and now VZ: How Will the DOJ React?

SATS, already having announced deals to sell spectrum to T and SpaceX, is reportedly close to a deal to sell its AWS-3 band to VZ. We expect easy approval from the FCC but given the DOJ Antitrust Division’s comments recently about the risks of leaving “the market vulnerable to increased coordination among the remaining three carriers” how will it react to the new deals? In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for reviews of the spectrum sales to incumbent wireless carriers.

Ben Rickett ... (+2)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer

UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...

We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding

Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

BEAD: Another Major Update

We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 24 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. Transitional session brings gains European stock markets rallied, spurred by optimism on the positives of AI and the expected greater economic dynamism. In the STOXX 600, the gains were led by Autos and Consumer Goods, whereas defensive sectors like Pharma and Food suffered the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone the preliminary manufacturing PMI for September fell into a zone compatible with falling activity levels (49.5), while the servi...

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