LMK GROUP - NEUTRAL vs. BUY | SEK21 VS. SEK57 (+74%) Sharp business deterioration leaves LMK in cash preservation mode LMK has again disappointed with its Q2 trading update, highlighting even more rapid business deterioration that is raising major questions about cash-burn and cash preservation. With momentum set to remain very poor until marketing issues are resolved and HelloFresh adopts a more rational stance in the Nordics, we do not foresee any rerating from 0.1x EV/Sales and we even consi...
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK57 VS. SEK96 (+161%) 2023 can still be saved by revamped marketing, 2022 can no longer Post-Q1 results and roadshow with management, we took a step back and looked at what went wrong in Q1: persisting marketing and brand identification issues in Sweden. Fixing it will take time and by then we see 2022 as a tough year with topline declining in double-digits and continuous margin erosion. We have also adopted a cautious stance by only pricing in our model a very gradual and l...
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK96 Heading towards a dividend and a 5-6% yield LMK proposes a SEK1.75/share dividend for 2021 Towards a clear dividend policy: at least SEK1.75/share dividend going forward Board finally reacting to massive derating An e-commerce stock paying dividend: should we see the glass half-full or half-empty?
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK96 vs. SEK99 Feedback from roadshow: heading towards a two-phased year in 2022 Key takeaways from conference call and roadshow 2022 to be a two-phased year in terms of growth because of adjusting marketing approach 2022 contribution margin and EBITDA margin to improve Buy reiterated, TP of SEK96 vs. SEK99
MEAL KIT | HELLOFRESH, LMK Glass Ceiling Higher than we Imagined In this report, we try to answer the biggest and oldest concern of investors about meal kits: where is the glass ceiling in terms of adoption rate and how long will it take to reach it? With household adoption rate a very secret metric, we have built our own proprietary approach leading to reassuring results about the sector’s growth prospects. HELLOFRESH | Conviction BUY vs. BUY – TP EUR100 • Still a Good Recipe for Succes...
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK99(+207%) Still in a period of poor momentum with weak Q4 publication ahead Growth at constant FX might be negative in Q4 Profitability still under pressure in Q4 Don’t expect any formal guidance for FY 2022 Poor momentum ahead until mid-2022, TP maintained at SEK99 What could trigger a faster than expected rerating?
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK100 VS. SEK157 (+164%) Understanding what went wrong in Q3 and why it will take time to recover What went wrong in Q3, and especially in Sweden? Marketing issues and poor cohorts’ issues to weigh on Q4 21 and H1 22 Pending further guidance, we see FY 2022 squeezed between low growth and declining margin TP cut to SEK100 with weak operating momentum until mid-2022
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK157(+253%) Q3 growth below expectations with EBITDA surprisingly negative 8.4% sales growth at c.FX in Q3, below expectations Customer acquisition the main disappointment Worse than expected EBITDA margin decline Buy, comments regarding current trading and margins
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK157(+201%) No hard landing in sight in Q3, but emerging cost inflation Q3 growth to reach 13.6% at constant FX Cost inflation headwinds materialising on contribution margin… …offsetting our aggressiveness on marketing spending New CTO and new Head of Corporate Communications Buy reiterated as LMK remains too attractively valued to be ignored
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK157(+191%) Too value to be ignored by investors… and strategic buyers Now in deep value territory among meal kit players A window of opportunity is opening for bidders from October Who could be interested among meal kit players? HelloFresh Who could be interested among food retailers? Local ones
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK157 VS. SEK154 (+191%) LMK’s business model transformation will be less costly than expected Q3 off to a good start with another double-digit growth quarter Contribution margin should finally not decline in 2021 Marketing costs to remain below 13% We again lift our FY EBITDA estimates LMK remains a nice discounted small cap play, TP lifted from SEK154 to SEK157
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK154 VS. SEK150 (+114%) No hard-landing and better margin perspectives for 2021 Q2 growth to reach 11.5% at c.FX Becoming more optimistic on Q2 margins FY EBITDA margin decline to be more limited than anticipated LMK remains a nice discounted small cap play, TP raised from SEK150 to SEK154
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK150(+108%) Feedback from roadshow with management Summer-related seasonality to return in Q2-Q3 Offering upgrade still ongoing… …and proves to be less costly than expected What about the competitive landscape? LMK remains a nice discounted small cap play immune to a hard landing
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK150(+103%) 2021 should already be above the guided range of 10-12% growth Three reasons not to fear a “hard landing” Heading for 2021 organic growth above the 10-12% range Unchanged margin trajectory, fuelling an upgrade in the offering LMK remains a nice discounted small cap play immune to a hard landing
LMK GROUP - BUY | SEK150(+96%) Strong start to the year with 33.8% growth 33.8% sales growth at c.FX in Q1 Net recruitment of new customers being the main driver EBITDA margin declined a little bit faster than anticipated Reassuring comments regarding current trading
In an ever-growing desire to develop and assert our expertise in the food delivery segment, we are now initiating the coverage of the Nordics meal kit regional leader Linas Matkasse Group with a Buy recommendation and a Target Price of SEK150.
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