reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight Our bullish outlook we initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the S&P 500 (implying 7-10% downside) and market dynamics remain healthy. To be clear, we are not calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we simply want to be prepared for anything. Shorter-term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
EME EMCOR GROUP
URI UNITED RENTALS INC.
WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORPORATION
WLDN WILLDAN GROUP
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MTRX MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
HRI HERC HOLDINGS INC.
KBR KBR INC.
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
AGX ARGAN INC.
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
HEES H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES INC.
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
ALTG ALTA EQUIP GROUP INC
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
PRIM PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. This is a hallmark of bull markets; we will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change. In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact. Gold and Silver Breaking Out as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) a...
SUM SUMMIT MATERIALS INC. CLASS A
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
MLM MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC.
KBR KBR INC.
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
ORN ORION GROUP HOLDINGS
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
USLM U.S. LIME & MINERALS
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000 Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the S&P 500). The S&P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023. It is increasingly likely that 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the S&...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support We discussed last week (6/21/23 Compass) how consolidation was likely, and so far that is what we have seen with the S&P 500 back to test the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023. We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300. However, a break below 4300 could bring selling pressure, and potential support levels to watch would be 4165-4200 followed by 4050. Structurally high...
VLRS VOLARIS AVIATION HOLDING ADS
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
HURN HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
CPA COPA HOLDINGS S.A. CLASS A
GLDD GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight Since January 2023 we have discussed how we anticipate 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view. There continues to be little traction above 4200. In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible. This seems to be playing out...
Moody's assigns Baa3 to MasTec's notes following exchange offer
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") assigned a Baa3 senior unsecured rating to MasTec, Inc.'s (MasTec) proposed notes to be issued in exchange for the existing IEA Energy Services LLC (IEA) (B2 RUR for upgrade) notes through an exchange offer by MasTec. All other ratings and stable outlook at MasT...
Moody's affirms MasTec's Baa3 senior unsecured rating; outlook stable
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) affirmed MasTec, Inc.'s (MasTec) Baa3 senior unsecured rating following the announcement that MasTec has reached a definitive agreement to acquire in cash and stock Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc. (IEA). The rating outlook is stable MasTec is acquir...
Moody's upgrades MasTec's senior unsecured rating to Baa3; outlook sta...
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades MasTec's senior unsecured rating to Baa3; outlook stable. Global Credit Research- 24 Nov 2021. New York, November 24, 2021-- Moody's Investors Service upgraded MasTec, Inc.' s senior unsecured rating to Baa3 from Ba2.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
MAN MANPOWERGROUP
MMM 3M COMPANY
OSR OSRAM LICHT AG
CMCSA COMCAST CORPORATION CLASS A
ALLE ALLEGION PLC
BLMN BLOOMIN' BRANDS INC.
LII LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMCX AMC NETWORKS INC. CLASS A
WWD WOODWARD INC.
WU WESTERN UNION COMPANY
VALE.N VALE S.A. ADS
V VISA INC. CLASS A
UPLD UPLAND SOFTWARE INC.
UHS UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC. CLASS B
TWOU 2U INC.
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SMFG SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC. (ADS)
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
PKXN POSCO
OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC
NWL NEWELL BRANDS INC
NTGR NETGEAR INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
MNST MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION
MEI METHODE ELECTRONICS INC.
LOCO EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS INC
HVT HAVERTY FURNITURE COS. INC.
GLW CORNING INC
GKOS GLAUKOS CORP
FISV FISERV INC.
EEFT EURONET WORLDWIDE INC.
CVLT COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC.
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
CORT CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED.
CHGG CHEGG INC.
B BARNES GROUP INC.
AVT AVNET INC.
ATI ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED
ALSN ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS INC.
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
CYH COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC.
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
MGI MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL INC.
SCS STEELCASE INC. CLASS A
TTC TORO COMPANY
VSH VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY INC.
TPB TURNING POINT BRANDS
SNAP SNAP INC. CLASS A
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
AZUL AZUL S.A. SPONSORED ADR PFD
ENR ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC.
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
EHC ENCOMPASS HEALTH CORPORATION
PINS PINTEREST INC. CLASS A
GRWG GROWGENERATION
FROG JFROG
BIGC BIGCOMMERCE HOLDINGS
XPER XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION
BTRS BTRS HOLDINGS INC (A)
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
LOGN LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A.
HEI HEICO CORPORATION
VMW VMWARE INC. CLASS A
GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC.
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
TKR TIMKEN COMPANY
REGI RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP INC.
PII POLARIS INC.
NLSN NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
LEA LEAR CORPORATION
KHC KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY
KAMN KAMAN CORPORATION CLASS A
IIVI II-VI INCORPORATED
FISV FISERV INC.
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CRS CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION
APD AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS INC.
ALV ALLIANZ SE
WEED CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION
ELY CALLAWAY GOLF COMPANY
MBUU MALIBU BOATS INC. CLASS A
MSM MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO. INC. CLASS A
NX QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION
SAM BOSTON BEER COMPANY INC. CLASS A
CENTA CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO A
SJM J.M. SMUCKER COMPANY
VFC V.F. CORPORATION
MX MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORP.
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
DLX DELUXE CORPORATION
DD DUPONT DE NEMOURS INC.
LEV THE LION ELECTRIC CO.
SBTX SILVERBACK THERAPEUTICS
ENS E SPLIT CORP.
ADV ASI INTERMEDIATE CORP.
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