reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
STRATEGY We are upgrading our outlook back to neutral following improvement in market dynamics alongside significant bullish false breakdowns at 6480-6520 on the S&P 500 (SPX), 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the Russell 2000 (IWM). We continue to have our doubts that SPX can sustain a breakout above 7000, but as long as the bullish gaps from April 8th remain unfilled on SPX, QQQ, and IWM, it signals bulls remain firmly in control in the near-term. The indexes have ignored all “bad” ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
New Lockout Rally Underway? We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25. After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ continue to hold. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view...
ZEUS OLYMPIC STEEL INC.
TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORP
STLD STEEL DYNAMICS INC.
RYI RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION
CMC COMMERCIAL METALS COMPANY
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SMSMY SERIES 1
ELA SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LTD. ADS
ENTERGY LA LLC DEB 5.875%41
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking Out to All-Time Highs We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place as long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785. Short-term support on SP...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500). We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range if it gets there, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on the SPX. Technolo...
LPG DORIAN LPG
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TRT1 TRANSATLANTIC PETROLEUM LTD.
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SDRL SEADRILL LTD.
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
VAL VALARIS LTD
ALCC ALTC ACQUISITION CORP
SMR NUSCALE POWER CORP
FRO FRONTLINE PLC
NE NOBLE CORP (NEW)
NNE NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY
TNK SEADRILL LTD
CPLPB TEEKAY TANKERS LTD.
TK CARGOPORT LOGISTICS CA PFD B
TEEKAY CORPORATION LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Communications and Energy We remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities and we are encouraged by recent developments highlighted below which are primarily of the bullish variety. • Upgrades: We are upgrading Comm. Services (XLC) to overweight and equal-weighted Energy (RYE) to market weight due to an RS breakout for the XLC and bullish RS reversals for several energy ETFs (RYE, XOP, IEO). Add exposure. See charts below and Sector comments on pages 4-5 for actionable ideas. • A...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
CARZ FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLOBAL AUTO INDEX FUND
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KCE SPDR KBW CAPITAL MARKETS ETF
EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
A14MTT ISHARES CURRENCY HEDGED MSCI GERMANY ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip†strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
ARGT GLOBAL X FTSE ARGENTINA 20 ETF
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
TUR ISHARES MSCI TURKEY ETF
VUG VANGUARD GROWTH ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
PALL ABERDEEN STANDARD PHYSICAL PALLADIUM SHARES ETF
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 FUND
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWU SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
XOP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IGV BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWS SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
XSW SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KRE. VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
CRAK INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBC INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DBO ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
EWH ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
IEO ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EFNL ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWJ SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
XRT MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market remains indecisive • Outlook and breadth indicators are mixed: Last week's retest of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average has held, a critical support level, but a long-term breadth indicator has shown deterioration. That is, during the recent retest, a higher percentage of S&P 500 constituents closed below their respective 200-day moving average... see below. Other indicators such as the Discretionary/Staples ratio, Advance-Decline lines, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-da...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
ECH ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
EZA ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
CUT GUGGENHEIM MSCI GLOBAL TIMBER
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWM ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA ETF
PPA POWERSHARES ETF TRUST AEROSPACE & DEFENSE PORTFOLIO
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
EGPT MARKET VECTORS EGYPT INDEX
FBT FIRST TRUST NYSE ARCA BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX FUND
ARGT GLOBAL X FTSE ARGENTINA 20 ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Volatility prevails • Long-term bullish outlook remains. In our last ETF Pathfinder, we voiced our expectation for a continued period of heightened volatility marked by backing and filling. We also noted important levels on the S&P 500 that we are watching - the recent high of ~2,873 as the top-end of the range, and the recent low of ~2,532 as the bottom-end. Nothing has changed regarding these expectations, and we expect markets will continue to consolidate within the aforementioned range. ...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
SLX. MARKET VECTORS STEEL INDEX FUND
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EWK ISHARES MSCI BELGIUM CAPPED ET
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
PICK ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRODUCERS ETF
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
REMX. MARKET VECTORS RARE EARTH/STRATEGIC METALS ETF
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.