reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
EUSC WDMTR ERP HDG EQ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy to Market Weight Better economic data and optimism surrounding US-China trade (notwithstanding last Friday) has put a floor under Treasury yields and has led investors to take profits from large-caps, growth, and defensive areas of the market and migrate to small-caps, value, and cyclical segments of the market. While this shift has been a welcomed sight for the prospects of a broad-based move higher, several key risk-on areas of the market have thus far failed to break above r...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
PJP INVESCO DYNAMIC PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing 1-month resistance All of the major averages (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) are testing key 1-month resistance levels. This test of short-term resistance comes despite new developments which continue to be of the negative variety, making it a logical area for the market to retreat. As a result, we remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook. • Negative developments continue. Copper exhibits signs of breaking down below the key $2.54-2.55 level, the small- vs. large-cap ratio (IJR/SPY...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
PPLT ABERDEEN STANDARD PHYSICAL PLATINUM SHARES ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market at key inflection point, still vulnerable We remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook as indicators continue to send mixed signals. By and large, new developments have been negative, but many areas we often look to in order to gauge risk sentiment - which also give us clues to where the market is likely headed next - are testing important support levels. • Negative developments. Several negative developments support our belief that the market may be poised for further weakness,...
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
CARZ FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLOBAL AUTO INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
YTD S&P 500 trading range continues; Avoid broad international exposure Constructive but murky outlook for U.S. equities paints an overall mixed picture, making sector/group/stock selection critical. • Bull case: (1) advance-decline (A-D) lines and other breadth indicators (% of stocks above 50-, 200-day moving averages) are neutral to positive; (2) price and RS uptrends remain intact for risk-on segments, including Technology (XLK), biotech (XBI, IBB), and growth stocks (IUSG); and (3) the ...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
CRAK VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
RTH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
DBE INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND
DBB INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
INDA ISHARES MSCI INDIA ETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
A115LY ISHARES MSCI QATAR CAPPED ETF
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
NORW GLOBAL X NORWAY ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWU SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
XOP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IGV BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWS SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
XSW SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KRE. VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
CRAK INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBC INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DBO ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
EWH ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
IEO ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EFNL ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWJ SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
XRT MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy and Small-caps • Energy and small-caps breaking out. We are upgrading both to overweight. Continued strength in oil prices has led the XLE to breakout topside resistance... see below and page 6. Also breaking out to new highs is the Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM)... see below and page 3. • Big picture trends: Interest rates, the USD, and commodities. The 10-year Treasury yield has continued to climb, moving as high as 3.115% last week to levels not seen since 2011. Wit...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWI POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY INDEX FUND
EWU POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
DBC SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
UUP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
XOP BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
- Thierry Huteau
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