reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
A2AKZX ISHARES MSCI SAUDI ARABIA CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Despite Concerns, Tape Remains Bullish In our 4/6/20 ETF Pathfinder we highlighted key S&P 500 pivot levels which included support at 2447-2455 and resistance at 2538 & also the 2575-2642 zone. We noted eventual breakouts or breakdowns above or below these levels would tell us where equities were likely headed next. The S&P 500 broke above these resistance levels on April 6 meaning the bulls were in control and equities were headed higher -- which is where we continue to be today. Despite the bu...
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
IHIT INVESCO HIGH INCOME 2023 TARGET TERM FUND
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A2AH2C VANECK VECTORS BIOTECH ETF
IGV THE INCOME & GROWTH VCT PLC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
IWR ISHARES RUSSELL MID-CAP ETF
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A118W4 ISHARES MSCI EUROPE MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF
RSX.. VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Hanging in the balance Last week's worse-than-expected economic data further spooked investors and reignited global growth concerns. Despite the many potential risks that we can point to for this market and the economy, thus far we are not seeing any technical breakdowns, and until we do, our neutral outlook remains appropriate. • Cyclicals not breaking down. Key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market such as small-caps (IWM), banks (KBE), and transports (IYT) are not breaking down. As long as...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
CRAK VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
IOO ISHARES GLOBAL 100 ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Semiconductors, Transportation improving The S&P 500 continues to move higher on narrow leadership, which is not inspiring a bullish outlook. Currently leading the S&P 500 higher in terms of RS are Technology, Services, Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Procter & Gamble (PG). If this were a bull market, (1) PG would likely NOT be listed here as leadership, and (2) we would expect to see participation broaden out to Discretionary (RCD), Transportation (IYT), banks (KBE), Industrials (XLI), and s...
CSGP COSTAR GROUP INC
EFX EQUIFAX INC.
VRSK VERISK ANALYTICS INC
TRU TRANSUNION
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
MATX MATSON INC.
ICFI ICF INTERNATIONAL INC.
HURN HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC.
FCN FTI CONSULTING INC.
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
EXPO EXPONENT INC.
CDE COEUR MINING INC.
CBZ CBIZ INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
SSW ATLAS CORP.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
SALT ENETI INC.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAG. MAG SILVER CORP.
SVM. SILVERCORP METALS
FR. FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP.
FVI. FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC.
PAAS PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP.
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
LSTR LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC.
ODFL OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
JBHT J.B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES INC.
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
WPM WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CORP
SSRM SSR MINING INC
KNX KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
NM NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. • Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we s...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
KIE SPDR KBW INSURANCE ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 FUND
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
A14MTT ISHARES CURRENCY HEDGED MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWA ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Cyclicals at a critical juncture Our general outlook remains positive and unchanged on U.S. and foreign equities, however there are a number of concerns that still exist -- particularly as it relates to some key cyclical areas of the market. If the concerns highlighted below are eventually alleviated, we believe a more bullish outlook would be warranted. • Concern #1: Several cyclical areas of the market remain below resistance, including Financials (both in the U.S. and Europe - XLF, EUFN),...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
IYZ ISHARES US TELECOMMUNICATION
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A1138P ISHARES MSCI COLOMBIA CAPPED ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
- Shelley Moen
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