New Lockout Rally Underway? We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25. After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ continue to hold. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. In terms of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, there are few things more bullish than indexes breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction that we had in 2022 -- but that is exactly what is happening. In last week's Compass (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled. This and the hea...
It’s late April – typically the peak of the China-dominated seasonal restocking cycle for iron ore’s seaborne trade. Landed prices for China’s imports should be relatively high right now + stable for at least the next 2-3 months. Instead, China’s Dalian exchange has reported a general 20-25% price slide over the last 6 weeks, with landed fines’ futures dipping below US$100/t this week – the lowest level since Dec-22. Yes, we’re ore price bears, but the speed/timing of this sell-off is a surprise...
What you need to know: • The precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being down slightly • Gold rallied heavily following the collapse of several major banks and the U.S. Fed guiding for a pause on rates in the near term • This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly ...
The Restocking Indicator stays on HOLD, and so matches up with our short-term expectation that iron ore prices will be range bound for the next couple of months. There has been an improvement in domestic demand, but no post-lockdown ‘fireworks’ in play. Certainly not enough to get China’s steel mills, or us, excited on the short-term steel/ore outlook. Worth keeping an eye on rising pollution levels, for this could prompt policy action and lift lump/pellet/high grade premiums – bullish for AAL/F...
It’s all happening, over in China. Based on Feb-22’s PMI data, economic activity has bounced out of lockdown-lows (again), an event that is coinciding nicely with China’s vast industrial base’s post-winter seasonal uptick. Got lots of excited investors asking us what the China-related upside risk is now, for the seaborne rust trade (China takes >70% of total trade). Problem is, for investable upside in China’s imports/prices, we need its central govt. to remove a perennial cap on the country’s t...
The sharp market bounce in January would suggest that a strong fundamental lift is coming. Problem is, China’s steel mills haven’t seen it yet. Domestic demand has slightly improved, typical for this time of year, but inventories are rising at their fastest rate since Feb 2020. Possible timing issue for the Restocking Indicator, given the earlier Chinese New Year, but the signals move from Hold to SELL anyway. So, we tell investors to be cautious chasing this rally.
Awaiting Powell's Speech Today and CPI Thursday We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023. We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490). In our view, reducing risk near resistance and adding risk near support will be key to outperforming in 2023 (alongside Sector/stock selection). Shorter...
Risk Appetites Improving While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites. Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors; the fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls. Risk-On Signals. We are seei...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Testing Key Resistance; Downgrading Health Care Throughout this recent consolidation phase we have maintained our belief that ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity -- this remains our core belief. Now, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; if they are able to break above and stay above their respective resistance levels it would signal the end ...
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