EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Turkish automotive: ready for the ride (Ford Otosan and Tofas stay BUY, Dogus Otomotiv stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 1Q22 adjusted EBITDA in line with our and market's expectations NEUTRAL • Famur: 1Q22 EBITDA in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 1Q22 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: takeaways from the call with Hidroelectrica's management NEUTRAL • Kofola: key takeaways from CEO interview with Seznam Zpravy NEUTRAL • Cyf...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid trends prevail in annual results (in line with preliminary net profit guidance) NEUTRAL • OMV: strategy update - net zero by 2050 • Piraeus Bank: delivery of transformation plan on track • Hellenic Bank: exposure to Russia/Ukraine NEUTRAL • Tatneft: FY21 results released • EME Macro/Strategy: Germany ZEW index signals another 2008 crisis ahead • Hungary macro: another survey signalling potential Orban win
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
In late-2020, the value of bonds trading with negative yields reached an all-time high value of USD 18trn. Since then, yields have started growing worldwide, and the sum halved to c.USD 9trn as of the end of January 2022. Although rising bonds yields do not usually favour high-dividend yielding stocks (HDY), we still believe that the latter may remain an attractive investment opportunity. As these equities usually tend to have strong balance sheets (low leverage, solid cash holdings), combined w...
HEADLINES: • Greek oil & gas: a more refined business model (Hellenic Petroleum upgraded to BUY, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • Immofinanz: 3Q21 - recurring in line, retail faring well, guiding for EUR 135m pre-tax 2023E FFO I • Public Power Corporation: weak 3Q21 results on power macro headwinds NEGATIVE • Alpha Bank: 3Q21 - solid delivery • Terna Energy: 9M21 numbers - no major surprises • Ignitis Group: 3Q21 results - 4% EBITDA miss, but 2021E guidance stands NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 3Q...
HEADLINES: • Atrium: Gazit's EUR 3.63 offer - attractive (downgraded to SELL) • Kruk: harder, better, faster, stronger (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: awaiting the new strategy... (downgraded to HOLD) • Petrol Group: delivering, expanding, distributing (stays BUY) • CD Projekt: 3Q21 results miss our expectations, focus on improving sentiment on CP77 NEGATIVE • Gazprom: 3Q21 results and conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Tatneft: 3Q21 results review NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: s...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: hard to navigate amid widespread mistrust • OPAP: 3Q21 results review - a sense of normality • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q21 results - stronger than expected • Fourlis: strong rebound on 3Q21 performance • Asseco Poland: 3Q21 results review - net profit up 32% yoy, to PLN 120m NEUTRAL • PGE: 3Q21 results review - fully in line with the preliminary numbers NEUTRAL • Shoper: management call takeaways - optimistic outlook for 4Q21E POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: key takeaways...
EME Equity Market – September 2021 Market performance – Turkish equities performed the worst, followed by Greek stocks. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 4.5% in EUR terms and 2.4% in USD terms in September. Turkey’s ISE30 Index declined by 9.7% in EUR terms and lost 5.2% in TRY terms, while the Greek ASE Index declined 6.3% in EUR terms. In Poland, the WIG20 Index declined by 4.3% in EUR terms and 2.4% in local currency. The Hungarian BUX Index fell by 1.3% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in lo...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: 2Q21 results review - strong organic profit on the back of better fees, other income POSITIVE • Turkey macro: 2Q21 GDP at 21.7% yoy • MTS: details of the reorganisation process details revealed NEUTRAL • Tatneft: 2Q21 conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Mail.ru Games: August top mobile games revenues down 1% mom (-12% yoy) according to Sensor Tower NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q21 results beat expectations on stronger revenues, mostly from Cyberpunk 2077 POSITIVE • Tau...
EME Equity Market – August 2021 Market performance - The Hungarian BUX Index gained 9.8% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose 5.1% in EUR terms and 4.6% in USD terms. The best-performing equity index was the BUX, which added 9.8% in EUR terms and 6.9% in the local currency (LCU). The ISE30 Index advanced 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.8% in LCU, while Prague’s PX Index gained 6.5% in EUR terms and 6.2% in LCU. The Polish benchmark WIG20 Index added 6.1% in EUR terms and 5.1% in LCU, followed by ...
HEADLINES: • Lukoil: stronger 2Q21 results than expected POSITIVE • Tatneft: neutral 2Q21 results • LiveChat Software: reports mediocre 1Q21-22 (calendar 2Q21) results NEGATIVE • Petrol Group: 2Q21 results review - very good numbers, beating our estimates NEUTRAL • Bittnet Systems: 2Q21 results review - weak quarter with 14% yoy drop in EBITDA NEGATIVE • Gradus: 2Q21 EBITDA below our expectations amid impairments of biological assets NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: new Competition Board probe in the...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: strong 2Q21 with adjusted EBITDA up 91% yoy, 5% above our estimates POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 2Q21 results review - EBITDA up 44% yoy, in line with consensus NEUTRAL • PGNiG: production begins from the Duva Field in the Norwegian North Sea • Cyfrowy Polsat: changes in mobile tariffs and 5G access now included in all plans POSITIVE • CCC/Allegro: CCC has launched its official Sprandi store on the Allegro marketplace POSITIVE • Eurocash/Dino: small store sales s...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
EME Equity Market – July 2021 Market performance – Turkish ISE30 Index gains 6.0% in July, while Russian MOEX declines by 1.9%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.1% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in July, despite most of the followed sub-indices being in the black. The best-performing equity market was in Turkey, which added 6.0% in EUR terms and 2.6% in TRY terms, followed by the Czech PX Index, which gained 4.9% in both EUR and CZK terms. The Hungarian BUX Index added 1.1% in EUR and 2.9...
HEADLINES: • Russia oil and gas: facing the new reality • CCC: PLN 500m issue of convertibles of eObuwie to Softbank POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: key takeaways from Friday's conference call on entry into China and investments POSITIVE • Polish banks: National Bank of Poland also responds to Supreme Court request • Santander BP: issues profit warning related to massive FX mortgage litigation risk provisions NEGATIVE • InPost: e-grocery JV with Metro launched POSITIVE • Dino: 91 new stores added...
We have updated our valuations for the Russian oil companies, raising our price targets (PT) by 22%, on average, to reflect our expectations of a stronger oil market in the medium-term (USD 70/bbl for 2022-24E). We have also reviewed the capital allocation options for the sector in light of government calls for higher investments and a rising climate change agenda. Our top pick is Tatneft (stays BUY, new PT USD 63), while we downgrade Rosneft to HOLD (new PT USD 9.1), due largely to its strong s...
EME Equity Market – June 2021. Market performance – Russian equities stood out, rising 7%, in June. The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe index grew by 4.7% in June in EUR terms, continuing May’s good performance. June was also a good month for Russian stocks, advancing 7% in EUR terms and 3.2% in local currency terms. The second-best performance in EUR terms came from the BET Index (+3.7% mom; and 3.9% in local currency terms); while the Hungarian index saw a mild gain of 0.6% in EUR terms, but was...
HEADLINES: • Tatneft: 1Q21 results - expectedly strong, more details on dividends emerging • Terna Energy: adjusted 1Q21 numbers, including US operations write-off • CD Projekt: activist investor Abri Advisors wants to recall top executives after Cyberpunk fiasco NEUTRAL • European refining and petrochemicals margins monthly: May 2021 NEUTRAL • Greece macro: 1Q GDP flash confirms investment recovery • Romania macro: slightly louder inflationary signals • PGNiG: Danish Environmental and Food...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Borealis-tic strategy (stays BUY) • OMV: appoints new CEO • Kcell: valuation still demanding vs. peers (stays SELL) • Wizz Air: 4Q21 - expects to fly around 30% capacity in calendar 2Q, sees net loss likely for FY22E NEUTRAL • Aeroflot: 1Q21 cash burn down, to fly 130% of 2019 capacity in 3Q, possible pressure ahead on yields POSITIVE • HeadHunter: announces launch of follow-on offering of 4,500,000 ADSs NEGATIVE • Hungary macro: meaningful monthly increase across sectors, b...
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