Expecting a Rally Through Early-2026 We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059. Additionally, we discussed since our 10/14/25 Compass how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569, which coincided with the 3-month upt...
                                                                                Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking Out to All-Time Highs We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place as long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785. Short-term support on SP...
                                                                                Downgrading Industrials and Materials to Underweight We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as uptrends remain intact; the formation of new uptrends has been our expectation since late-April (4/30/24 Compass). Near-term we continue to expect to see support at the upside gaps from June 12 and also the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (5375-5408) and QQQ ($467-472). These are strong support levels. Longer-term, we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and the QQQ is above...
                                                                                Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
                                                                                S&P 500 Testing Short-Term Support Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the major indexes and all Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500 Levels. We see short-term support on the S&P 500 at 3630-3645. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 followed by 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropr...
                                                                                S&P 500 Testing Support Amid Uncertainties Short-term support levels have been violated on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 due to uncertainties surrounding rising COVID-19 cases/potential stay-at-home orders, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding new stimulus and the election outcome. While we remain constructive over the intermediate-term, short-term breakdowns have shifted our near-term outlook to a more neutral stance. · Key S&P 500 Levels. We believe caution is warranted fo...
                                                                                S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
                                                                                Bulls Still In Control Supported by several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish and believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · Zero Breakdowns. Major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Small- and mid-caps) remain in uptrends and not one S&P 500 Sector is breaking down. The absence of breakdowns is bullish. · Breadth Remains Healthy. Breadth indicators including advance/decline (A/D) lines and the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MAs continue...
                                                                                Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
                                                                                Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
                                                                                Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...
                                                                                The major averages (S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq) are showing signs of stalling out, with all breaking below uptrends that began at the lows of March. While we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves, this could very well be the beginning of the meaningful pullback that we have been concerned about. Price action today and in the coming week will help offer major clues as to whether this is yet another buying opportunity or a near-term top. We believe this is more likely to be the latter and wo...
                                                                                Despite Concerns, Tape Remains Bullish In our 4/6/20 ETF Pathfinder we highlighted key S&P 500 pivot levels which included support at 2447-2455 and resistance at 2538 & also the 2575-2642 zone. We noted eventual breakouts or breakdowns above or below these levels would tell us where equities were likely headed next. The S&P 500 broke above these resistance levels on April 6 meaning the bulls were in control and equities were headed higher -- which is where we continue to be today. Despite the bu...
                                                                                Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...
                                                                                Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...
                                                                                Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in ...
                                                                                Hanging in the balance Last week's worse-than-expected economic data further spooked investors and reignited global growth concerns. Despite the many potential risks that we can point to for this market and the economy, thus far we are not seeing any technical breakdowns, and until we do, our neutral outlook remains appropriate. • Cyclicals not breaking down. Key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market such as small-caps (IWM), banks (KBE), and transports (IYT) are not breaking down. As long as...
                                                                                Upgrading Energy to Market Weight Better economic data and optimism surrounding US-China trade (notwithstanding last Friday) has put a floor under Treasury yields and has led investors to take profits from large-caps, growth, and defensive areas of the market and migrate to small-caps, value, and cyclical segments of the market. While this shift has been a welcomed sight for the prospects of a broad-based move higher, several key risk-on areas of the market have thus far failed to break above r...
                                                                                Testing 1-month resistance All of the major averages (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) are testing key 1-month resistance levels. This test of short-term resistance comes despite new developments which continue to be of the negative variety, making it a logical area for the market to retreat. As a result, we remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook. • Negative developments continue. Copper exhibits signs of breaking down below the key $2.54-2.55 level, the small- vs. large-cap ratio (IJR/SPY...
                                                                                The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip†strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM...
    
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