Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...

After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one.

1&1 (Neutral, €22, +10%) United Internet (Neutral, €31, +13%) Telefoni...

With the Telefonica CMD around the corner (4 November), we revisit our 1&1 valuation and reassess potential synergies from German mobile consolidation. We estimate a transaction could value 1&1 equity at €6.7bn (€38/ share, +90% upside) assuming synergies are split equally, or potentially higher if Vodafone were also to bid.

Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...

The price war at the low end of the French mobile market, which began at the beginning of summer 2024, and which we have written about extensively (HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE), appears to be coming to an end, thanks to some tariff changes that should lead to higher APRUs. We show some new work on tariffs in France in this short report, that should be good for all the MNOs.

Credit Morning 10/08/2025

SoftBank Group signs an agreement to buy ABB Robotics for $ 5.4bn|AXA announces repayment of the Legacy Perp TEC|

Morning Crédit 08/10/2025

SoftBank Group signe un accord pour l’acquisition d’ABB Robotics pour 5,4 mds USD|AXA annonce le remboursement du Perp legacy TEC|

KPN/2025 safe, mixed view on Strategy update/HOLD

We slightly up our estimates and TP ahead of the 3Q25 results on 28 October and the strategy update on 5 November. We factor in the €25m IPR benefit, spread over 2Q25 and 3Q25. The competitive environment got tougher in 3Q25 in broadband, while in mobile competition remains intense in no frill. We expect KPN will achieve its 2025 guidance though, in line with consensus. On the other hand, we have a mixed view on the strategy update. We think KPN will confirm most 2027 targets but will need to tu...

Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...

New Altice France debt and equity is now trading. Given the material change in bond terms, and the creation of a new separately traded equity piece, we reassess our rating, and think that at these levels the bonds look pretty fairly valued, and so take the bond rating to Equal weight from Overweight (the old bonds ended up +20% from the lows), and initiate on the equity with a Neutral, as we think that the equity is already implying a high probability of a deal happening, and see minimal underli...

Credit Morning 10/06/2025

Seb issues a second major profit warning for this year|Isabel Marant steps back from designing collections|

Morning Crédit 06/10/2025

Seb fait un 2e gros profit warning pour cette année|Isabel Marant se met en retrait de la conception des collections|

INFORME DIARIO 06 OCTUBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: SANTANDER, SECTOR BANCARIO, TELEFONICA. EUROPA: SECTOR BANCARIO El Euro STOXX 50 rompe al alza sus máximos históricos del año 2000 Las bolsas europeas han continuado con las subidas y el Euro Stoxx 50 consigue marcar máximos desde el año 2000, pasando por alto el shutdown en EE.UU. En el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores fueron Farmacia, Tecnología y B. Consumo mientras que Energía (tras los recortes del crudo), Seguros y Viajes y Ocio terminaron c...

AMX and Entel working on a joint bid for Telefonica Chile

According to a Bloomberg article, AMX and Entel are working on a joint bid for Telefonica’s Chile unit. AMX would be interested in the mobile assets of Telefonica Chile while Entel would buy the fixed business.

Telenet - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

IBERIAN DAILY 24 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. Transitional session brings gains European stock markets rallied, spurred by optimism on the positives of AI and the expected greater economic dynamism. In the STOXX 600, the gains were led by Autos and Consumer Goods, whereas defensive sectors like Pharma and Food suffered the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone the preliminary manufacturing PMI for September fell into a zone compatible with falling activity levels (49.5), while the servi...

INFORME DIARIO 24 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. Ganancias en una sesión de transición Rebote en las bolsas europeas aupadas por el optimismo sobre las bondades de la IA y el esperado mayor dinamismo económico. En el STOXX 600 lideraron las subidas Autos y B. Consumo mientras que defensivos como Farma y Alimentación sufrieron las mayores correcciones. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona el PMI manufacturero preliminar de septiembre retrocedió a terreno compatible con caí...

Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...

There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...

IBERIAN DAILY 19 SEPTEMBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, CAF, FCC, TELEFÓNICA, VISCOFAN. The Fed spurs the markets Following the expected rate cut by the Fed, European stock markets reacted with sharp rises of more than +1.5%. The IBEX lagged behind and closed with slight losses due to the lack of technology stocks. In the STOXX 600, Technology was once again the big winner, with Utilities and Basic Materials falling the most. On the macro side, in the US the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose sharply in August. Weekly jobl...

INFORME DIARIO 19 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AENA, CAF, FCC, TELEFÓNICA, VISCOFAN. EUROPA: ESSILORLUXOTTICA. La Fed anima las bolsas Tras la esperada bajada de tipos por parte de la Fed, las bolsas europeas reaccionaron con fuertes avances por encima del +1,5%. El Ibex se quedó rezagado y cerró con tímidas pérdidas por la ausencia de representación tecnológica. Así, en el STOXX 600 Tecnología volvió a liderar con fuerza los avances frente a Utilities y R. Básicos que fueron los que más cayero...

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Inmobiliaria Colonial, Benelux TMT Credits

Real Estate: Inmobiliaria Colonial was back in the market with a green bond; TMT: Benelux TMT Credits - How's it going? Where's the value?