Credit Morning 11/14/2024

Banco BPM acquires 5% stake in Banca MPS>...

Morning Crédit 14/11/2024

Banco BPM achète une participation de 5% dans Banca MPS>...

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads

In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.

TMT hybrid yields trended lower/Move up in quality

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. Over the year, TMT hybrid notes have performed well. However, we now think the tightening potential over senior notes is more limited. One can move up in quality (or lower duration) without giving up much additional spread.

Liberty Global operating companies/3Q24 Earnings: UPCB, TNETBB, ZIGGO ...

The 3Q24 earnings reports of the four high yield telecom companies that are (partially) owned by Liberty Global[a] were mixed. 3Q24 adj. EBITDA performance was strong at VodafoneZiggo and Telenet, slightly better at Sunrise, and weak at Virgin Media O2. We currently prefer Sunrise and Ziggo. Given similar credit profiles, we expect limited spread dispersion across the four companies. However, we expect that Liberty Global will look different one year from now, after (partial) network sales.

Telefonica (Neutral, €4.5, +7%) Q3 24 – Revenue, EBITDA and FCF beat

Telefonica’s Q3 results are solid, being marginally ahead of consensus across the board. In particular, strong KPIs in Spain and high organic growth in Brazil stands out, and with all guidance reiterated, we believe there could be some upside to consensus estimates.

TELEFÓNICA: MENSAJES DE LA CONFERENCE CALL RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO...

De la conference call de Rdos. 3T’24 destacamos los siguientes mensajes:  España: A pesar de un entorno de mayor competencia en el segmento de bajo costo,

TELEFÓNICA: 3Q’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Sales: € 10.023 Bn (-2.9% vs. -3.7% BS(e) and -3.3% consensus); EBITDA: € 2.946 Bn (-11.5% vs. -2.2% BS(e) and -3.2% consensus); EBIT: € 740.0 M (-30.0% vs. -9.3% BS(e) and -2.6% consensus); Net Profit: € 10.0 M (-98.0% vs. -50.2% BS(e) and -34.5% consensus); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Sales: € 30.418 Bn (-0.3% vs. -0.6% BS(e) and -0.4% consensus); EBITDA: € 9.37 Bn (-2.3% vs. +0.9% BS(e) and +0.5% consensus); EBIT: € 2.803 Bn (-5.8% vs. +1.6% BS(e) and +3.9% consensus); Net...

Credit Morning 11/07/2024

Banco BPM reports strong Q3 results and launches a takeover bid on Anima. Coty: cautious tone after Q1 results. Call and tender offer on certain bonds maturing in 2026.>...

Morning Crédit 07/11/2024

Banco BPM publie de solides résultats T3 et lance une offre sur Anima Coty : un ton prudent après les résultats T1. Rachat de certaines obligations 2026.>...

Telefonica : Q3 2024: better group FCF growth on non-recurring items

>Q3 2024 results 1% with consensus - Q3 2024 revenues are down 3% y-o-y to € 10,023m, due to negative forex changes, and in line with consensus (consensus € 9,983m, ODDO BHF € 10,356m). Q3 2024 EBITDA was down 2.5% y-o-y to € 3,260m or 1% above consensus (consensus € 3,224m). EBITDAaL was down 3.4% at € 2,595m, also 1% above expectations (consensus € 2,564m, ODDO BHF € 2,683m).2024 targets are confirmed: revenue growth of 1%, EBITDA 1-2%A, FCF > 10%. The targets ...

Telefonica : Q3 2024: better group FCF growth on non-recurring items

>Q3 2024 results 1% with consensus - Q3 2024 revenues are down 3% y-o-y to € 10,023m, due to negative forex changes, and in line with consensus (consensus € 9,983m, ODDO BHF € 10,356m). Q3 2024 EBITDA was down 2.5% y-o-y to € 3,260m or 1% above consensus (consensus € 3,224m). EBITDAaL was down 3.4% at € 2,595m, also 1% above expectations (consensus € 2,564m, ODDO BHF € 2,683m).2024 targets are confirmed: revenue growth of 1%, EBITDA 1-2%A, FCF > 10%. The targets ...

TELEFÓNICA: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 10.023 M euros (-2,9% vs -3,7% BS(e) y -3,3% consenso); EBITDA: 2.946 M euros (-11,5% vs -2,2% BS(e) y -3,2% consenso); EBIT: 740,0 M euros (-30,0% vs -9,3% BS(e) y -2,6% consenso); BDI: 10,0 M euros (-98,0% vs -50,2% BS(e) y -34,5% consenso). Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 30.418 M euros (-0,3% vs -0,6% BS(e) y -0,4% consenso); EBITDA: 9.370 M euros (-2,3% vs +0,9% BS(e) y +0,5% consenso); EBIT: 2.803 M euros (-5,8% vs +1,6% BS(e) y +3,9% consenso); BDI: 989...

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Enel, Engie, Verbund, SES, Telefonica, BT

Utilities - Enel: 9M24 robust results support our positive view. Engie: 9M24 results disappoint but YE24 guidance maintained. Verbund: poor 9M24 results as expected

IBERIAN DAILY 07 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREV...

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, AEDAS, AMADEUS, ARCELORMITTAL, INDRA, INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL, ROVI, TELEFÓNICA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. European stock markets do not welcome Trump European stock markets saw strong corrections, particularly the Ibex after D. Trump’s victory. On the contra...

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.