True EBITDA up 3% y-o-y, but lowers FY'25 guidance

Strong Q2, but rich valuation

Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian telcos: Telenet small positive net adds, good financials, guidance up. Kinepolis: US Cinemark strong, 5% growth in US tickets, consumption per visitor. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 2Q25 very weak, guidance maintained. PostNL: 2Q25 beats underlying slightly; FY25 guidance reiterated, EU court appeal

IBERIAN DAILY 04 AUGUST (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKING SECTOR, SANTANDER, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. Trump and the job market lead to another market selloff The tariff rise approved by D. Trump to dozens of countries instead of lower tariffs as part of the negotiations under way and the slowdown signs of the US economy led to losses >-2.5% in European stock markets. Thus, in the STOXX 600 last week was marked by the earnings calendar and by Friday’s sell-off where energy was the only sector not ending in negative territory, whereas A...

INFORME DIARIO 04 AGOSTO + RDOS. EUROPA 2T’25. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANC...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: SANTANDER, SECTOR BANCARIO, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 2T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Trump y el mercado laboral provocan otro sell-off en el mercado El incremento arancelario aprobado por D. Trump a decenas de países en lugar de reduc...

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.8, +19%) MasOrange (Equal Weight) It’s not all a...

We have been long-term Buyers of Orange, and are pleased about the YTD share price performance (+37% vs the sector +10%). Some of that outperformance is probably due to the prospect of French market repair (France is 56% of the value), but actually it is the Spanish and AME divisions that cause our target to rise to €15.8 from €14.9 post the Q2 results.

TELEFÓNICA: 2Q’25 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

2Q'25 vs. 2Q'24 Results Sales: € 8.953 Bn (-12.7% vs. -13.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 2.905 Bn (-9.8% vs. -9.5% consensus); EBIT: € 1.034 Bn (+1.3% vs. -0.7% consensus); Net Profit: € -51.0 M (€ 447.0 M in 1H'24 vs. € 104.0 M consensus); 1H'25 vs. 1H'24 Results Sales: € 18.013 Bn (-11.7% vs. -11.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 5.895 Bn (-8.2% vs. -7.7% consensus); EBIT: € 2.109 Bn (+2.2% vs. +1.3% consensus); Net Profit: € -1.355.0 M (€ 979.0 M in 1H'24 vs. € -1.200.0 M consensus);

Telefonica (Neutral, €4.4, -2%) Q2 25 – Solid quarter ahead of strate...

The main event for Telefonica shareholders in H2 will be the strategic review outcome, rather than the Q2 or Q3 results, but nonetheless these are a solid set of results with all guidance reiterated. On one hand, we see upside from consensus FCF for 2025 being too low, but on the other hand, we worry that the outcome of the strategic review might not be as shareholder-friendly in the near-term as some might like.

Credit Morning 07/30/2025

Nexans: Strong set of results and resignation of its CFO|OPmobility prices its new 2031 bonds|Altarea: recovery momentum in housing firmed up in H1 2025|Worldline: confirmation of major operating challenges in H1 2025|

Morning Crédit 30/07/2025

Nexans: Strong set of results and resignation of its CFO|OPmobility price ses nouvelles obligations 2031|Altarea : la dynamique de reprise sur le logement se confirme au S1 2025|Worldline : confirmation d’importantes difficultés au S1 2025|

Telefonica : Q2 2025: better in Spain but lower in Germany (1&1 loss)

Telefonica : Q2 2025: better in Spain but lower in Germany (1&1 loss)

TELEFÓNICA: RDOS. 2T’25 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 2T'25 vs 2T'24: Ventas: 8.953 M euros (-12,7% vs -13,0% consenso); EBITDA: 2.921 M euros (-9,8% vs -9,5% consenso); EBIT: 1.034 M euros (+1,3% y -0,7% consenso); BDI: -51,0 M euros (417,0 M euros en 2T'24 vs y 104,0 M euros consenso); Rdos. 1S'25 vs 1S'24: Ventas: 18.013 M euros (-11,7% vs -11,0% consenso); EBITDA: 5.895 M euros (-8,2% vs -7,7% consenso); EBIT: 2.109 M euros (+2,2% vs +1,3% consenso); BDI: -1.355,0 M euros (950,0 M euros en 1S'24 vs -1.200,0 M euros consenso).

INFORME DIARIO 30 JULIO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 2T’25. IDEAS DESTACADA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAIXABANK, FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, REDEIA, SACYR, SANTANDER, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: ADIDAS, DANONE, KERING, L’ORÉAL, MERCEDES BENZ GROUP. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 2T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Los resultados toman el relevo Recuperación marcada por el...

IBERIAN DAILY 30 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS...

NEWS SUMMARY: CAIXABANK, FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, REDEIA, SACYR, SANTANDER, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Results take centre stage Recovery in Europe in a session marked by the results calendar and news on the trade negotiations of the US with China and the EU. In the STOXX 600, the ral...

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.9, +14%) Q2 25: EBITDA guidance lifted thanks to...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.3% ahead of consensus, and has lifted Group EBITDAaL guidance thanks to AME. French KPIs are solid, but French retail SR growth has turned negative y/y. There are some encouraging signs on French front-book low-end mobile pricing in July (HERE), but clearly overall conditions remain difficult (albeit Orange is doing a good job of off-setting those difficulties at the EBITDAaL level in France).

Credit Morning 07/28/2025

15% tariffs on EU: exposure of the high-yield names in the luxury goods, retail and consumer sectors|Forvia: solid operating results in H1 and further savings to come|

Morning Crédit 28/07/2025

Droits de douane à 15% sur l’Europe : valeurs high yield du secteur luxe/retail/consumer exposées|Forvia : un résultat opérationnel solide au S1 et davantage d’économies à venir|

INFORME DIARIO 28 JULIO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 2T’25. IDEAS DESTACADA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: BANCO SANTANDER, IBERDROLA, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AXA. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 2T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Acuerdo comercial entre Europa y EE.UU. Semana de poco movimiento en Europa, donde finalmente se anunció el acuerdo comercial entre EE.UU. y la...

IBERIAN DAILY 28 JULY + 2Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS...

NEWS SUMMARY: IBERDROLA, SANTANDER, TELEFÓNICA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 2Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Trade agreement between Europe and the US It was a week of little movement in Europe, where the trade agreement between the EU and the US was announced in the end with a general 15% tariff (vs. the threats of 30%) that will ...