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- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 8 - Equities rebound tussling with technical moving average resistances. Fundamentals around EPS/margins still ok. Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle is typically very strong, implying 15% returns. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 12 - The equity rally turns down at key resistance points, downside risk for this week. Sell A Share longs, R2K, AUDJPY, buy the VIX. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 14 - Oil’s retreat signals a peak in inflation, yields, the Fed and Equity energy EPS. GLI & ECRI leading indicator weakness, and if it worsens, is a warning for US GDP growth and US EPS. Red lig by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 16 - After 5 days down, stocks find temporary base. Expect a multi-day rebound then further declines. AU & NZ macro data does not in our view warrant current pricing for rate hikes by the RBA or R by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 20 - Markets last night told the Fed they would need to do more to forestall a data cycle peak, weak housing and falling tech optimism than imply fewer rate hikes. Sell NZDEUR. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 22 - Markets mark time with a Thanksgiving pause. HY spread widening warns of increased risk aversion. US inflation has still probably peaked. ASX EPS has started to edge lower, making ASX rallies by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 26 - Oil’s fall will produce a downgrade cycle in S&P energy Fwd EPS estimates and will lower inflation and expectations, thus pausing the Fed and lowering yields & the USD. Cut stocks shorts. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 28 - A rolling bear market is cascading through the commodity sector due to the global data cycle peaking and slowing. Sell miners, AUD & CAD on rallies, Copper, and be long NZ curve flatteners. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 30 - Record Chinese Coal stocks imply 15-20% coal, iron ore price falls, & mining Fwd EPS downgrades. The FOMC will likely hike in Dec, but shave a hike off ‘19/’20. Their macro forecasts look “of by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 11 - US growth and lead indicators softening. Key for stocks & EPS is by how much. Stocks & HY are trading as if recession is 6mths away. Investors/HFs record long growth, short safe havens. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 20 - Sorry Jay Powell, that ain’t enough for me. Stocks and US macro data will need to weaken a lot further than currently before the Fed saves the stock market. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 3 2019 - Weaker US & China Markit Manuf PMI’s, along with Composite EU PMI’s are consistent with a global GDP downgrade cycle. That should hurt stocks and growth assets, but it didn’t last night. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Q1 2019 Review - Are Growth Assets A Buy For A Final High, Or A Sell On Rallies? by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 15 - What should equity investors believe? Should they follow lagging data and EPS estimates, and a dovish Fed? Or leading data that is collapsing but still not in analyst and market forecasts? by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 23 - Stocks have marked an end to the 4 week corrective rebound with an exhaustion peak. Earnings season positives are coming to a close and growth concerns are persisting. Sell OIl, buy $CAD. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 25 - Markets limp into the weekend, with familiar themes – slowing data, US shutdown, trade tariff talks prolonging – failing to alter prices much. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 30 - US consumer confidence falls into the Fed. FOMC have a high hurdle to meet dovish expectations. True data dependence and a FF cycle high at are probably needed. Balance sheet change may help by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 1 - What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s Fed growth optimism offset by a reminder that the data cycle is still decelerating globally. Italy in recession, Chicago Fed PMI -7pts, JP IP -2%. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 5 - US stocks pushing higher as US outperforms EU, Asia. Failure at resistance is likely though as stocks underprice global risks now. RBA should shift dovish in response to softer data. ST sell t by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 8 - Global growth and inflation concerns are deepening amongst policy makers. Earnings certainty is weakening. Sell ASX200, Dow Transports, HY bonds, Copper, buy VIX. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 12 - Stocks will find it hard to stay up with weakening data and negative US Q1 EPS estimates. Negative UK data won’t help.US GDP estimates for 2019 are too high. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 14 - Weak EU IP and a better than expected US CPI see the USD reverse yesterdays gains and drive to a new high. US still looks better than EU, at least for now. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 16 - Why are Junk/HY credits so sharply outperforming IG credit at this point of the cycle? And why have Gold equities not outperformed the Gold metal price? by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 6 - Will the RBA’s next rates move be a hike or a cut? We favour a cut. GDP growth will slow to 2%, wages, consumption and savings are sliding, as is residential & mining investment. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 14 - ECB keeps a foot in both camps. Policy as expected. The weakest US stock segments – Banks, Transports, Small caps – are making new correction lows, which is bearish. Buy US 10’s, Gold, sell H by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 9 - Equities rally looking ST stretched near technical resistances. US Homebuilder new collapse a warning sign? Exit Dow Transports long (+5%) and move back to more neutral. Enter US 2-10 flatten by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 13 - Stocks retreat. Goldman stocks collapses as strategists warn of sharp drawdown risk. Sell ASX today. Sell CAD v USD & JPY as punters aren’t short enough or long enough JPY. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 15 - Key reversal days down in JPM, US Banks, as Apple breaks the 200 day. Is the USD trying for another peak? ECRI weakness needs to be confirmed by YRI, Conf Board LEI weakness. Buy Silver. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 19 - Did the Fed Friday “blinkâ€, and have they started a subtle dovish messaging shift re Fed Funds in response to a data cycle peak and falling stocks? We add USD shorts and some EM equity longs. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 21 - Markets are still saying that growth risks to Fwd EPS are dominating subtle Fed messaging shifts on rates. Prices need to fall further for buyers. USD rebound capping EM stocks. Reduce Kospi by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 23 - US stock futures hit 4 week lows. ASX Index EPS is falling, so FV thresholds should also fall. In NZ, dairy prices have fallen 30% from April, once short positions are cut, add to NZD shorts. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 27 - Fundamental Fwd EPS growth for ’19 is worsening. An Oil EPS downgrade cycle is near. MT/LT technical are negative. But a seasonal ST rebound in stocks and yields is underway. Buy miners sell by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Nov 29 - Fed’s Powell gives equities a boost. But markets are wrong to expect a swift change in Fed forecasts or dots. A Dec hike is still very likely. Disappointment is a risk. Exit US flatteners, bu by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 4 - Tariff optimism barely held – a ST S&P peak near 2815-25 is likely. The US 2-10 curve has flattened 15bps, but 2y-1y and 3y-2y OIS curves are already inverted, flashing warnings. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 17 - The weakest US sectors – Banks, Small Caps, Homebuilders – are breaking down. Global PMI/activity data is slowing, and the Fed may not validate market pricing. Fed disappoint risk is high. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 21 - Stocks are behaving like they’re in a sustained bear market not a correction. In Q1, a US GDP and inflation downgrade cycle will unfold. This will weaken stocks, yields, & will peak the USD by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 4 - Weaker Apple revenues, algo driven FX flash crashes, falling US 10yr yields. Whatever the reason, markets are set to downgrade global growth prospects. This will not favour growth assets. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 10 - Do markets need more from the Fed? A hiking pause has boosted stocks, but do they need the Fed Fund cycle high to be 2.5%, and balance sheet contraction to also stop? by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 22 - While stocks have rebounded solidly, technical resistance is at 200 day averages and Nov highs. Our sense is stocks will pullback this week or next, once they’ve tried and failed at there. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 24 - Canadian rates markets are wrong to expect rate hikes when retail sales growth is zero and consumer and business confidence are falling. Sell CAD. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 29 - The 3 downgrade cycles - fwd EPS, GDP and inflation – are continuing. Further Fwd EPS falls would be a stocks hurdle. So also may be a Fed that doesn’t fully validate equity market wishes. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 31 - Powell Fed delivers dovish trifecta, a patient pause, no preset hikes, and larger balance sheet. Stocks to test resistances, USD to decline significantly. Buy S&P, AUD, NZD US 10s. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 4 - Stronger US jobs and manufacturing data say the US is still better than the ROTW. Close ST USD shorts and precious metals long and await to reset. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 7 - The NZ U/E rate cycle has bottomed, and the AU U/E base is not far away. The RBA & RBNZ will both be cutting by year end. Stay long yields/flatteners, short AUD & NZD. Wait to sell ASX. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 11 - Growth assets have rallied too far relative to growth and inflation estimates and Fwd earnings estimates. Beware. Equity technical are toppy. Buy Gold & Silver, sell USD Index today. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 13 - Resell USD on key reversal day down, despite looking better than the EU. NFIB data was weak, but JOLTS strong. Equities up on trade deadline extension. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 3 - Delay of higher tariffs is ST positive for stocks, but hurdles remain. Beware excessive optimism. CB’s are giving less and higher cost credit. HY spreads are widening as they would 6-9mths bef by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 18 - Despite rising LT recession probability models, ST recession odds in the next 3-6mths remain near zero according to our models, as data hasn’t weakened enough yet to be alarmed. IP tonight. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily For Jan 2 2019 - A key first week of 2019 for US stocks as S&P tussles with 2600 resistance. The US is on the verge of a GDP downgrade cycle. Consumer Confidence has peaked, PMI’s are softening. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL
- Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 17 - Long positioning, increasing rate cut expectations, and a multi day USD rebound have all weighed on AUD & NZD in the last 24hours. Expect a further retracement lower in both. by ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL