reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Technology Leading; Sustained New Highs Coming? Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US managed to hold at crucial $134 support. With that said, our near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision). Market dynamics have improved considerably throughout April, and while bulls remain firmly in control for as long as the $140.50-$144 gap remains unfilled on ACWI-US, the index ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLMT CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
EEM ELECTRICITE ET EAUX DE MADAGASCAR
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX US ETF
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
OOOO OOOOO ENTERTAINMENT COMMERCE LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Corrective Phase Continues As US Dollar Rises; Japan Showing Strength In our most recent Int'l Compass (9/11/20) we highlighted our belief that global equities (MSCI ACWI) were going through a corrective phase -- this remains true today. Additionally, we view the break above 94 in the US dollar (DXY) as a concerning development for global equities, and if $77 fails to hold on ACWI-US, the next stop is likely to be $75 and the 200-day MA. · US Dollar (DXY); Broad Global Indexes. Short-t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
IWR ISHARES RUSSELL MID-CAP ETF
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A118W4 ISHARES MSCI EUROPE MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF
RSX.. VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Here we go again In last week's Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are...
NEM NEWMONT CORPORATION
NG. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC.
HAM HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (ADR)
GFI GOLD FIELDS LTD. ADS
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
AU ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD. ADS
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
EGO ELDORADO GOLD CORP.
K. KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION
SVM. SILVERCORP METALS
AEM. AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED
BTO B2GOLD CORP.
FR. FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP.
PAAS PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP.
SEA SEABRIDGE GOLD
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
SBGL SIBANYE STILLWATER
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
USA.. AMERICAS SILVER CORP
NMI. KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LTD.
WPM WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CORP
SSRM SSR MINING INC
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
DUBA DRDGOLD LTD. ADS
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
VNQ VANGUARD REIT ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
IOO ISHARES GLOBAL 100 ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
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