reports
Eli Lilly & Co: 1 director
A director at Eli Lilly & Co sold 1,000 shares at 734.930USD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
Moody's Ratings assigns Aa3 rating to Eli Lilly's notes; stable outloo...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Aa3 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the Aa3 senior unsecured notes ratings and issuer rating, the (P)Aa3 senior unsecured shelf, the (P)Aa3 senior uns...
- Jonathan Moreland
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
SFNC SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION CLASS A
SBH SALLY BEAUTY HOLDINGS INC.
RGEN REPLIGEN CORPORATION
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
HRTX HERON THERAPEUTICS INC
CROX CROCS INC.
CNC CENTENE CORPORATION
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CBZ CBIZ INC.
AKAM AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ASA ASA
WY WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY
KODK EASTMAN KODAK CO
MXCT MAXCYTE INC
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
ADC AGREE REALTY CORPORATION
PETS PETMED EXPRESS INC.
SGMS SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION
GBLI GLOBAL INDEMNITY PLC
AMBC AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CYRX CRYOPORT INC.
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
UA UNDER ARMOUR
SMRT INC.
BHC SMARTSPACE SOFTWARE
SONO BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC.
ESTA SONOS
TROX ESTABLISHMENT LABS HOLDINGS
AMPY TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
PINE AMPLIFY ENERGY
FOUR ALPINE INCOME PROPERTY TRUST
ASAN SHIFT4 PAYMENTS
DLHC INC.
LUMN ASANA
GRNT DALEIGH HOLDINGS CORP
PRCT LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ENVX GRANIT SKOPKE
PTLO PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORP
BRCC ENOVIX CORP
BRBR PORTILLOS INC
MSDL BRC INC
INSG BELLRING BRANDS INC
SUNS MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDING
INSEEGO CORP.
SUNRISE REALTY TRUST
- Jonathan Moreland
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
DLY LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
FLDM FLUIDIGM
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
SGMS SCIENTIFIC GAMES CORPORATION
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
CYRX CRYOPORT INC.
SMRT SMARTSPACE SOFTWARE
CLAR CLARUS CORPORATION
AVNS AVANOS MEDICAL INC.
ASAN ASANA
LUMN LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
PRCT PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORP
MSDL MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDING
MDRR MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT INC.
- Jonathan Moreland
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
SBH SALLY BEAUTY HOLDINGS INC.
RYAM RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC
PSX PHILLIPS 66
LPSN LIVEPERSON INC.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
KURA KURA ONCOLOGY INC.
ICUI ICU MEDICAL INC.
CROX CROCS INC.
ASA ASA
KODK EASTMAN KODAK CO
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
ADC AGREE REALTY CORPORATION
PETS PETMED EXPRESS INC.
UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC.
SGU STAR GROUP L.P.
UA UNDER ARMOUR
BHC INC.
ESTA BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC.
AMPY ESTABLISHMENT LABS HOLDINGS
PRKA AMPLIFY ENERGY
DLHC PARKS! AMERICA INC
PRCT DALEIGH HOLDINGS CORP
TSE PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORP
NRGV TRINSEO PLC
MSDL ENERGY VAULT HOLDINGS INC
INSG MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDING
FINS INSEEGO CORP.
ANGEL OAK FINANCIAL STRATEGIES INCOME TERM TRUST
- Jonathan Moreland
RPD RAPID7 INC.
PRGS PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
CROX CROCS INC.
AMH AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT CLASS A
WY WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY
MXCT MAXCYTE INC
GBLI GLOBAL INDEMNITY PLC
LMB LIMBACH HOLDINGS
BRT BRT APARTMENTS
PMTS CPI CARD GROUP
BHC BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC.
ESTA ESTABLISHMENT LABS HOLDINGS
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
AMPY AMPLIFY ENERGY
ALKT ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY
XPOF INC.
VTRS XPONENTIAL FITNESS
WBD INC.
MSDL VIATRIS INC
SUNS WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
LNW MORGAN STANLEY DIRECT LENDING
SUNRISE REALTY TRUST
LIGHT & WONDER INC.
- Jonathan Moreland
TLYS TILLYS
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
RGEN REPLIGEN CORPORATION
PENN PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC.
NMFC NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
HRTX HERON THERAPEUTICS INC
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CBZ CBIZ INC.
AKAM AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ASA ASA
CC CHEMOURS CO.
SSSS SUTTER ROCK CAPITAL CORP.
LFST LIFESTANCE HEALTH GROUP
ENVX INC.
BRBR ENOVIX CORP
GRNT BELLRING BRANDS INC
SMRT GRANITE RIDGE RESOURCES INC
MNR SMARTRENT INC
NBBK MACH NATURAL RESOURCES LP
NB BANCORP INC.
- Jonathan Moreland
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TFX TELEFLEX INCORPORATED
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
SHBI SHORE BANCSHARES INC.
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
NPO ENPRO INDUSTRIES INC.
MTDR MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
MMLP MARTIN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS L.P.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
KMPR KEMPER CORPORATION
IFF INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC.
EIG EMPLOYERS HOLDINGS INC.
CNOB CONNECTONE BANCORP INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CDXS CODEXIS
ARW ARROW ELECTRONICS INC.
AMH AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT CLASS A
CIVB CIVISTA BANCSHARES
OLN OLIN CORPORATION
ASUR ASURE SOFTWARE INC
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC.
CYRX CRYOPORT INC.
FTV FORTIVE CORP.
CLAR CLARUS CORPORATION
A2H9KJ NEO PERFORMANCE MATERIAL
OSPN ONESPAN
FXNC FIRST NATIONAL CORP. OF VIRGINIA
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
CCO CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR HOLDINGS INC
XRX XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION
PINE ALPINE INCOME PROPERTY TRUST
WSC WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP
LRMR LARIMAR THERAPEUTICS INC
THRY THRYV HOLDINGS
DLHC DALEIGH HOLDINGS CORP
INTA INTAPP INC
PTLO PORTILLOS INC
BRBR BELLRING BRANDS INC
AUB ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORP
AURX NUO THERAPEUTICS
OI INC.
SIRI OWENS ILLINOIS INC.
XELB SIRIUS XM HLDGS INC NEW
MUSA XCEL BRANDS INC.
LNW METALS USA HOLDINGS CORP.
LIGHT & WONDER INC.
- Jonathan Moreland
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NPO ENPRO INDUSTRIES INC.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
IFF INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC.
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC.
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
OSPN ONESPAN
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
PINE ALPINE INCOME PROPERTY TRUST
PTLO PORTILLOS INC
AUB ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORP
LNW LIGHT & WONDER INC.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8...
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Research Team ACF
KDST + NLSP Combined Core Investment Case 29052025
We consider the merged platform Kadimastem (KDST.TA) + NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP:NasdaqCM). We provide an investment case analysis and a selection of merged metrics prior to any synergies. The merger creates a cross-platform pre-revenue biotech with lead programs including a proprietary stem-differentiation platform capable of delivering scalable therapies for replacing lost or damaged cells; IsletRx could revolutionize insulin production for Type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients; AstroRx® targets neurod...
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TDOC TELADOC HEALTH INC.
PODD INSULET CORPORATION
ORMP ORAMED PHARMACEUTICALS
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
SAN SANOFI
TILS TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
SENS SENSEONICS HOLDINGS
TNDM TANDEM DIABETES CARE
NOVO NOVO NORDISK A/S-B
SANA SANA BIOTECHNOLOGY
HIMS HIMS AND HERS HEALTH INC (A)
KDST.TA:TASE KADIMASTEM
NLSP:NasdaqCM NLS PHARMACEUTICS
CRSP (NASDAQ) CRISPR THERAPEUTICS
TLSA TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES LTD
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Research Team ACF
ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025
Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market. 57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition. The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period. LCC is a prevalent symptom among lung cancer patients, and its management is...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CVGW CALAVO GROWERS INC.
CAR AVIS BUDGET GROUP INC.
A AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC.
MSB MESABI TRUST
PESI PERMA-FIX ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES INC.
HRTG HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC.
TATT TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
IIIN INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC.
SJT SAN JUAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUST
CHCI COMSTOCK HOLDING COMPANIES
SEZI SENZIME AB
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
TIGO MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR S.A.
FRAF FRANKLIN FINANCIAL SERVICES CO.
OVBC OHIO VALLEY BANC CORP
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SMMT SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC
HTZ HERTZ GLOBAL HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
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ZBIO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY
VRM VROOM INC
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
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