reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by...
Eli Lilly & Co: 1 director
A director at Eli Lilly & Co sold 1,000 shares at 818.240USD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
- Research Team ACF
ACF Thematic Research Regenerative Medicine Diabetes Treatment & Innov...
Diabetes mellitus, Type 1 (T1D) and Type 2 (T2D, 85-90% of cases), is a USD ~75bn global therapy market. Global economic costs of diabetes may exceed USD1 trn today and USD 450bn in the US, suggesting a pressing global health challenge. Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by high blood sugar levels. In 2024, consensus global estimates suggested there were ~800m adult diabetes sufferers. In 2021, according to the IDF there >530m sufferers globally. For 2027E we modestly forecas...
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TDOC TELADOC HEALTH INC.
PODD INSULET CORPORATION
ORMP ORAMED PHARMACEUTICALS
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
SAN SANOFI
TILS TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
SENS SENSEONICS HOLDINGS
TNDM TANDEM DIABETES CARE
NOVO NOVO NORDISK A/S-B
SANA SANA BIOTECHNOLOGY
HIMS HIMS AND HERS HEALTH INC (A)
KDST.TA:TASE KADIMASTEM
NLSP:NasdaqCM NLS PHARMACEUTICS
CRSP (NASDAQ) CRISPR THERAPEUTICS
TLSA TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES LTD
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels. With that said, we see potential for near-term downside as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and FANG+ (FNGS) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) display bearish false breakouts, (3) have fallen back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) are violating their 1+ month uptrends, and (5...
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
CFSL COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (ADR)
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
AKOB EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S.A. SERIES B ADS
FMX FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO S.A.B. DE C.V. ADS
BMTA BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
CCHGY COCA-COLA HBC AG
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
GSK. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC CEDEAR
IMBBY IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Cagri Data Makes Sense (BUY, TP DKK880, 11pgs)
We have conducted a deep-dive on the available literature & the CagriSema data and show that the inverse dose response is exactly what we would expect to happen and is what was seen in previous Novo studies. In fact, if we were to see the same cut of the data in REDEFINE4, we would fully expect tirzepatide to show the same thing. There is sufficient data (both clinical & in animal models) that shows that there is nothing untoward in the CagriSema data. Crucially, as we learn more about the biolo...
Moody's Ratings assigns Aa3 rating to Eli Lilly's notes; stable outloo...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned an Aa3 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the Aa3 senior unsecured notes ratings and issuer rating, the (P)Aa3 senior unsecured shelf, the (P)Aa3 senior un...
Moody's Ratings upgrades Eli Lilly's rating to Aa3; outlook is stable
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) upgraded the senior unsecured notes ratings and issuer rating of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly") to Aa3 from A1 and affirmed the Prime-1 short-term rating. At the same time, we upgraded the senior unsecured shelf to (P)Aa3 from (P)A1, and the senior unsecured medium term no...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Amycretin Data to Drive Re-Rating (BUY, TP DKK 880 [800...
After the disappointing CagriSema data, Novo shares de-rated in large part due to growing concerns about the sema patent expiry & ability to sustain growth beyond 2031. Whilst we did not share these concerns & are not worried about declines post the sema LOE for a multitude of reasons, we are aware that we are in the minority. However, with the amycretin data showing best-in class weight loss, Novo’s ability to compete with LLY, switch patients from Wegovy & deliver growth beyond 2031 is now muc...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Finding the Floor (BUY, TP DKK800 [1150], 11pgs)
The Novo Obesity bubble has well and truly burst, with every investor we spoke to asking about the worst case obesity scenario & what that means in terms of valuation. Despite Cagrisema having shown the best weight loss profile to date, we now assume the worst case estimates for Novo’s obesity franchise, with Novo only taking ~25% mkt share & treating only 7m US patients in 2030. The 2030 EBIT d/grade if cons. falls to our Cagri estimate would be just 8%, but we are fully cognisant of where sent...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma 2025 Outlook - The Correction Was Due, Tread Carefully
In the aftermath of the H224 Healthcare correction, we look forward to 2025 with a more focused stock specific approach We show sector fundamentals have remained robust despite the correction. We see 4 key themes for the Pharma sector in 2025; 1) 2025 is a very strong year for important pipeline readouts, 2) The volume impact of Medicare Part D reform will dominate the narrative in H125 & continue to be a tailwind into 2026, 3) Margin expansion should be robust at a sector level, 4) Biotech M&A...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 2025 Growth Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150, 8pgs)
Following management commentary on sales growth in 2025, we have calculated the implied sensitivity to Wegovy supply & the potential impact on consensus group sales. We show that high-teens group sales growth implies 40% US Wegovy sales growth in 2025. This is below consensus. Given our previous analysis [here] on falling Wegovy prices but higher volumes, the CTLT deal is now the most important catalyst, in our view: even more important than the cagrisema readout, which we forecast accounts for ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - CagriSema Valuation Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150)
Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Thematic - A Deep-Dive into Amylin
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Collapsing Wegovy Prices is Bullish (BUY, TP DKK 1150, 16 pgs)
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence t...
Moody's Ratings rates Eli Lilly's notes A1; positive outlook
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned an A1 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the A1 senior unsecured long-term rating and the Prime-1 short-term rating, or the positive outlook. Proceeds fr...
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