reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Research Team ACF
KDST + NLSP Combined Core Investment Case 29052025
We consider the merged platform Kadimastem (KDST.TA) + NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP:NasdaqCM). We provide an investment case analysis and a selection of merged metrics prior to any synergies. The merger creates a cross-platform pre-revenue biotech with lead programs including a proprietary stem-differentiation platform capable of delivering scalable therapies for replacing lost or damaged cells; IsletRx could revolutionize insulin production for Type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients; AstroRx® targets neurod...
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TDOC TELADOC HEALTH INC.
PODD INSULET CORPORATION
ORMP ORAMED PHARMACEUTICALS
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
SAN SANOFI
TILS TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
SENS SENSEONICS HOLDINGS
TNDM TANDEM DIABETES CARE
NOVO NOVO NORDISK A/S-B
SANA SANA BIOTECHNOLOGY
HIMS HIMS AND HERS HEALTH INC (A)
KDST.TA:TASE KADIMASTEM
NLSP:NasdaqCM NLS PHARMACEUTICS
CRSP (NASDAQ) CRISPR THERAPEUTICS
TLSA TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES LTD
Eli Lilly & Co: 1 director
A director at Eli Lilly & Co sold 1,000 shares at 716.410USD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Research Team ACF
ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025
Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market. 57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition. The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period. LCC is a prevalent symptom among lung cancer patients, and its management is...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CVGW CALAVO GROWERS INC.
CAR AVIS BUDGET GROUP INC.
A AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC.
MSB MESABI TRUST
PESI PERMA-FIX ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES INC.
HRTG HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC.
TATT TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
IIIN INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC.
SJT SAN JUAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUST
CHCI COMSTOCK HOLDING COMPANIES
SEZI SENZIME AB
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
TIGO MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR S.A.
FRAF FRANKLIN FINANCIAL SERVICES CO.
OVBC OHIO VALLEY BANC CORP
NEON NEONODE INC.
SMMT SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC
HTZ HERTZ GLOBAL HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
NUTX NUTEX HEALTH INC
ZBIO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY
VRM VROOM INC
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Pelham Smithers
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by...
- Research Team ACF
ACF Thematic Research Regenerative Medicine Diabetes Treatment & Innov...
Diabetes mellitus, Type 1 (T1D) and Type 2 (T2D, 85-90% of cases), is a USD ~75bn global therapy market. Global economic costs of diabetes may exceed USD1 trn today and USD 450bn in the US, suggesting a pressing global health challenge. Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by high blood sugar levels. In 2024, consensus global estimates suggested there were ~800m adult diabetes sufferers. In 2021, according to the IDF there >530m sufferers globally. For 2027E we modestly forecas...
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TDOC TELADOC HEALTH INC.
PODD INSULET CORPORATION
ORMP ORAMED PHARMACEUTICALS
MDT MEDTRONIC PLC
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
SAN SANOFI
TILS TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
SENS SENSEONICS HOLDINGS
TNDM TANDEM DIABETES CARE
NOVO NOVO NORDISK A/S-B
SANA SANA BIOTECHNOLOGY
HIMS HIMS AND HERS HEALTH INC (A)
KDST.TA:TASE KADIMASTEM
NLSP:NasdaqCM NLS PHARMACEUTICS
CRSP (NASDAQ) CRISPR THERAPEUTICS
TLSA TIZIANA LIFE SCIENCES LTD
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels. With that said, we see potential for near-term downside as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and FANG+ (FNGS) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) display bearish false breakouts, (3) have fallen back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) are violating their 1+ month uptrends, and (5...
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
CFSL COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (ADR)
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
AKOB EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S.A. SERIES B ADS
FMX FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO S.A.B. DE C.V. ADS
BMTA BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
CCHGY COCA-COLA HBC AG
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
GSK. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC CEDEAR
IMBBY IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Cagri Data Makes Sense (BUY, TP DKK880, 11pgs)
We have conducted a deep-dive on the available literature & the CagriSema data and show that the inverse dose response is exactly what we would expect to happen and is what was seen in previous Novo studies. In fact, if we were to see the same cut of the data in REDEFINE4, we would fully expect tirzepatide to show the same thing. There is sufficient data (both clinical & in animal models) that shows that there is nothing untoward in the CagriSema data. Crucially, as we learn more about the biolo...
Moody's Ratings assigns Aa3 rating to Eli Lilly's notes; stable outloo...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned an Aa3 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the Aa3 senior unsecured notes ratings and issuer rating, the (P)Aa3 senior unsecured shelf, the (P)Aa3 senior un...
Moody's Ratings upgrades Eli Lilly's rating to Aa3; outlook is stable
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) upgraded the senior unsecured notes ratings and issuer rating of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly") to Aa3 from A1 and affirmed the Prime-1 short-term rating. At the same time, we upgraded the senior unsecured shelf to (P)Aa3 from (P)A1, and the senior unsecured medium term no...
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