Following management commentary on sales growth in 2025, we have calculated the implied sensitivity to Wegovy supply & the potential impact on consensus group sales. We show that high-teens group sales growth implies 40% US Wegovy sales growth in 2025. This is below consensus. Given our previous analysis [here] on falling Wegovy prices but higher volumes, the CTLT deal is now the most important catalyst, in our view: even more important than the cagrisema readout, which we forecast accounts for ...
Three Directors at Eli Lilly & Co bought/sold 947 shares at between 0.000USD and 803.380USD. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over...
Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact...
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence t...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned an A1 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the A1 senior unsecured long-term rating and the Prime-1 short-term rating, or the positive outlook. Proceeds fr...
New analysis of 6 studies shows strong & conclusive evidence that GLP-1 use reduces Alzheimer’s (AD) symptoms, in our view. Novo are trialling oral sema (14mg) in AD, which is due to read out in Sept ’25. Following our analysis, we now assume a 70% chance of success for this trial, which is obviously very high for an AD P3 trial. We show that peak sales could be $10bn even though we assume $150/mth in the US. Furthermore, due to complex manufacturing, those sales could be much more durable. If w...
In the 1st of a 3-part series, we show that the obesity market is set to become incredibly complex, with the current duopoly to be weakened, creating several investment opportunities over the coming years. We expect >15 drugs to launch by 2027, with >5 oral & >10 injectable, with >5 different mechanisms, from ~5 different companies. This fragmentation will create much more dynamism than currently assumed by the market. The statin market provides significant learnings for this fragmentation. We s...
In 2025, Big Pharma will be exposed to further US drug pricing reform as a result of the IRA act. This is the final big change to play out and we calculate there is the potential for a mid-single digit EBIT impact for some companies, but there is material heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the impact. There is also the potential for upside for Novo & LLY. However, given the significant complexity in the reimburse-ment changes & in computing the current sales in Medicare Part D, we are re...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) affirmed the ratings of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly") including the A1 senior unsecured notes and issuer rating. At the same tome Moody's also affirmed the (P)A1 senior unsecured shelf, (P)A1 senior unsecured medium term notes program and the Prime-1 short-term rating. Mo...
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy exp...
Novo are just too good to bet against. We now increase our 2030 obesity franchise sales to $50bn and most importantly show that sema’ is only 27% of group sales in 2031. Therefore, if sema’ sales halve by 2034, it’s only a ~5% p.a. headwind to group sales 2032-34. Greater visibility on the post-sema outlook is a strong reason for the Novo multiple to be retained into 2025. We see 8 reasons why Novo will hit DKK1100 in the next year, driven by EPS upgrades, increased supply & P3 readouts. We see ...
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) assigned an A1 rating to the new senior unsecured notes offering of Eli Lilly and Company ("Lilly"). There are no changes to Lilly's existing ratings including the A1 senior unsecured long-term rating and the Prime-1 short-term rating, or the stable outlook. RAT...
For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: ...
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