The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM (IN), active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 3 out of 4 stars while its market behaviour remains unchanged and can be qualified as defensive. However, a marginally less favourable environment forces theScreener to downgrade slightly the title, which now shows an overall rating of Slightly Positive. As of the...
HPCL: Project execution risk gaining materiality (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.8b, CMP INR303, TP INR295, 3% Downside, Neutral) HPCL reported an EBITDA in line with our estimate on the back of lower than estimated refining throughput (at 2.5mmt, 6% lower than our estimate), despite the marginal beat on GRM (USD2.4/bbl) and marketing margins (INR5.8/liter). Refining performance was below our estimate due to delay in the ramping up of the Mumbai refinery after it was shut down for expansion. It i...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
HPCL: Project execution poses greatest risk hereafter (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.1b, CMP INR265, TP INR295, 11% Upside, Neutral) HPCL reported a beat on our estimates, driven by a better-than-expected performance from the Marketing segment. On the other hand, Refining performance was below estimate due to a planned shutdown at the Mumbai refinery and higher fuel & loss during the quarter. The management expects to commission the Mumbai expansion project by the end of the month (which would a...
HPCL: Poor margins lead miss; expect marketing to outperform (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.1b, CMP INR237, TP INR340, 44% Upside, Buy) HPCL's lower-than-expected refining and marketing margins led to an EBITDA miss in 3QFY20. We have cut our FY20 EPS by 21% owing to the huge miss during the quarter and in light of the weak GRM outlook (trimmed GRM from USD4.2/bbl to USD3.0 for 4QFY20) and the lack of improvement in diesel cracks ahead of IMO. In 3QFY20, the company recorded higher-than-expected...
HPCL: Reported GRM poor, EBITDA misses estimate (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD6.7b, CMP INR310, TP INR364, 17% Upside, Buy) Lower-than-estimated GRM (incl. inventory) and marketing margin resulted in reported EBITDA of INR24.4b (-19% YoY; -17% miss) in 2QFY20. Total inventory gain stood at INR530m (refining gain at INR660m, while marketing loss at INR130m). Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was up 38% YoY at INR23.9b. During the quarter, forex loss stood at INR1.2b versus INR8.9b in 2QFY19. PBT was at ...
HPCL: Better core GRM; throughput lower due to shutdown at Mumbai refinery(HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.3b, CMP INR245, TP INR295, 21% Upside, Upgrade to Buy) ** Lower-than-estimated GRM (incl. inventory), throughput and marketing margin led to a 61% YoY decline in reported EBITDA to INR14.5b (55% miss). Adjusting for the huge inventory loss of INR5.4b (v/s gain of INR23.3b in 1QFY19), EBITDA for the quarter was up 42% YoY at INR19.9b. Forex gain stood at INR1.9b v/s a loss of INR5.4b in 1QFY19. PAT c...
HPCL: Capex weighs heavy on the books… (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD6.4b, CMP INR291, TP INR335, 15% Upside, Neutral) We recently met the management of HPCL wherein the company’s capex plans, marketing margins and refinery margins were the main points of discussion. Key highlights: Coronal capex cycle The Vizag expansion from 8.33mmtpa to 15mmtpa is expected to get completed by FY22. Company expects to achieve stabilization of refinery in a span of 9-12months, while we believe it could take ...
HPCL: Reinforced by enhanced marketing segment performance (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD6.4b, CMP INR294, TP INR309, 5% Upside, Neutral) EBITDA increased 55% YoY to INR46.6b (75% above our estimate) in 4QFY19, supported by an inventory gain of INR9.2b (v/s a gain of INR1.6b in 4QFY18 and a loss of INR34.7b in 3QFY19). Core GRM shrank 68% YoY (-79% QoQ) to USD2.1/bbl (22% miss), resulting in core EBITDA of INR37.5b (+31% YoY, -2% QoQ). HPCL recorded a forex gain of INR5b v/s a loss of INR0.8b in 4...
Q3FY19 highlights HPCL’s adjusted EBITDA/PAT of Rs9.6bn/Rs2.5bn declined sharply by 55%/77% qoq and was well below IDFCe of Rs18.1bn/7.8bn, driven by lower thruput and heavy inventory losses. 9MFY19 EBITDA/PAT of Rs62.7bn/Rs30.6bn was lower vs 9MFY18 EBITDA/PAT of Rs77.2bn/Rs46.1bn. Refining thruput of 4.56mt was flat yoy, -4% yoy (IDFCe 4.7mt), while GRMs of US$3.7/bbl (Core US$10/bbl, highest in 11 qtrs. Inventory loss of US$6.3/bbl) were US$5.3/bbl lower yoy. IDFCe was at US$3/bbl with co...
HPCL: Hit by high inventory loss; limited ability to raise prices until elections (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD4.8b, CMP INR225, TP INR231, 3% Upside, Neutral) HPCL reported a core GRM of USD10/bbl in 3QFY19, resulting in core EBITDA of INR38.3b (more than double YoY/QoQ; our estimate: INR36.3b). Inventory loss of INR35b was higher than our estimate of INR19.7b, resulting in EBITDA of INR3.7b (-88% YoY/QoQ; our estimate: INR16.6b). Forex gain stood at INR6.97b v/s INR2.7b in 3QFY18 and a loss o...
Q2FY19 highlights HPCL reported a 37% decline in PAT for Q2 to Rs10.9bn, with EBITDA of Rs21bn also declining 27%. The reported numbers are below estimates of Rs24.7bn EBITDA/ Rs12.7bn PAT. Refining thruput of 4.76mt was up 3% yoy (IDFCe 4.6mt), while GRMs of US$4.8/bbl (Core US$2.7/bbl, lowest in 10 qtrs. Inventory gain of US$2.1/bbl) were US$2.8/bbl lower yoy and below IDFCe $5.7/bbl (Core $4.5/bbl, Inventory gain $1.2/bbl). Marketing volumes of 9.1mt, growth of 4.8% yoy (IDFCe 9.1mt). Ma...
HPCL: Adj. EBITDA below estimate; core GRM at USD2.7/bbl (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD4.8b, CMP INR229, TP INR209, 9% Downside, Neutral) HPCL reported EBITDA of INR30b (est. 23.2b, +4% YoY, -19% QoQ). However, knocking off inventory gains, core EBITDA stood at INR20.1b (est. 20.8b, -5% YoY, +44% QoQ). Forex loss stood at INR8.9b against gain of INR200m in 2QFY18 and loss of INR5.4b in 1QFY19. Interest cost stood at INR2b (est. 1.5b, +28% YoY, +5% QoQ). Other income came above estimates at INR4.1b...
Q1FY19 highlights Reported EBITDA/PAT of Rs31.9bn/Rs17.2bn for the Qtr, a sharp 96/86% yoy rise respectively (IDFCe EBITDA/PAT Rs23.3bn/Rs12bn). Refining thruput of 4.52mt (115% utilization). Reported GRMs of $7.15/bbl (IDFCe $7/bbl) with inventory gains of $3.4/bbl vs a loss of $2.86/bbl in Q1FY18 (IDFCe $1.2/bbl). Marketing volumes of 9.72mt grew 5%, well ahead of estimates of 9.6mt. Strong growth in Petrol (+7%) and LPG (+11%) supported the growth. Marketing margins at Rs4622/t down 15...
HPCL: Adj. EBITDA significantly below estimate; core GRM at USD3.7/bbl (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD6.3b, CMP INR282, TP INR428, 51% Upside, Buy) HPCL’s reported EBITDA of INR37b (+129% YoY, +28% QoQ) was above our estimate of INR29b. However, total inventory gain stood at INR19b (est. of INR3.4b) – refining inventory gain stood at INR7.7b (USD3.43/bb) and marketing gain stood at INR11.4b. Adjusting for the same, EBITDA stood at INR18b (est. of INR25b; -43% YoY, -34% QoQ), significantly below our...
Q4FY18 highlights Reported EBITDA/PAT of Rs29bn/Rs17.5bn for the Qtr, a modest 1% yoy rise in EBITDA and a 4% yoy decline in PAT (IDFCe EBITDA/PAT of Rs33bn/Rs18.7bn). Refining thruput of 4.63mt (119% utilization) with FY18 thruput of 18.3mt implying 115.7% utilization for the year. Reported GRMs of $7.1/bbl (IDFCe $7.7/bbl) with inventory gains of $0.5/bbl vs a loss of $0.5/bbl in Q4FY17 (IDFCe $1.1/bbl). Marketing volumes of 9.45mt grew 6.7%, well ahead of estimates of 9.2mt. FY18 volumes...
HPCL: Adj. EBITDA significantly above estimate; core GRM at USD6.6/bbl (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD7.0b, CMP INR312, TP INR507, 63% Upside, Buy) HPCL’s reported EBITDA of INR29.2b (+1% YoY, -7% QoQ) in 4QFY18 was slightly higher than our estimate of INR27.8b. However, EBITDA adjusted for inventory gains stood at INR27.7b (-2% YoY, +64% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR22.4b, primarily led by higher GRM and lower inventory gains. HPCL reported total inventory gain of INR1.6b in 4QFY18...
Q3FY18 highlights Adjusted PAT of Rs19.5bn (IDFCe Rs14.8bn) improved 23% yoy, helped by inventory gain of US$3/bbl in refining (Rs6.4bn) and Rs.8.4bn in marketing. EBITDA of Rs31.6bn (+13% yoy, IDFCe Rs26.3bn). Excluding inventory impact, core refining metrics were relatively weak, with a US$6.1/bbl core GRM, implying a miss of US$1.1/bbl to Singapore benchmarks. Marketing volume growth of 2.2% in domestic volumes (1.7% overall) was below industry growth of 5.9% but we note growth in petrol...
HPCL: EBITDA significantly below estimate; core GRM at USD6.1/bbl (HPCL IN, Mkt Cap USD9.5b, CMP INR395, TP INR530, 35% Upside, Buy) HPCL’s reported EBITDA of INR31.6b (+7% YoY, +9% QoQ) in 3QFY18 was higher than our estimate of INR27.9b. However, EBITDA adjusted for inventory gains stood at INR16.9b (-8% YoY, -20% QoQ), much below our estimate of INR23.2b, primarily led by lower core marketing margin and GRM. HPCL reported total inventory gain of INR14.8b in 3QFY18: INR6.4b (~USD2.94/bbl...
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