Alba reported Q1 23 net profit of BHD47.4mn, above our expectation of BHD36.8mn. The main reason for the bottom-line beat was a realised gain on an interest rate swap position. While sales volume was lower than we had expected, this was offset by lower direct costs. A call with management will take place on 10 May. The shares trade at 4.2x 2023 earnings and 3.4x EV/ EBITDA. The results of the Line 7 feasibility study later this year could act as a catalyst for the shares. [
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will report Q1 23 results on 4 May. We expect aluminium price weakness to translate into a lower quarterly result. [/article-assets/body-iMDqC0xPKykUYkaxPNQFioIXKJkQRvZLb5zMXwxM.png] We forecast the company to post a net profit of US$98.0mn, compared with US$389.4mn in Q1 2022 and US$104.6mn in Q4 2022. Despite the slight qoq increase in aluminium pricing, we anticipate a sequential profit decline, primarily due to lower sales volume. It should...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will report its Q1 results on 12 May. We expect another strong performance, buoyed by high aluminium prices. LME aluminium spot prices hit record-high levels in March, with a closing price of US$3,877/mt on 4 March. Alumina prices over the period were c12% of aluminium prices, printing at an average of US$365/ton. We expect the company to post net profit (adjusted) of BHD210mn for the quarter, compared with BHD181mn in Q4 21 and BHD52mn in Q1 21. Aluminium Bahrain (AL...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will report Q3 21 results on 31 October, as we highlighted in our previous note. We expect the company to post another record net profit (adj.) of BHD140mn for the quarter, which could beat the previous record profit of BHD92mn in Q2 21 and the net loss of BHD12mn in Q3 20. Alba management and investors have had a good year so far, with impressive bounce-back in profits, thanks to favourable aluminium prices. Year-to-date, LME aluminium prices have increased 45% to US...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will report Q2 21 results on 1 Aug 2021, as we highlighted in our previous note. We expect the company to post adjusted net profit of BHD107mn for the quarter, which could make for the highest profit on record since 2011. This compares with net profits of BHD52mn in Q1 21 and -BHD16mn in Q2 20. GLOBAL ALUMINIUM DEMAND CONTINUES TO OUTWEIGH SUPPLY The metals and commodities price rally continued in Q2 21 with aluminium prices rising by 14% qoq to US$2,400/tonne. Deman...
Since our last update, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) stock has gained 25% to BHD0.65, moving above our previous target price of BHD0.63 (now increased to BHD0.83). This is a faster increase than seen in global aluminium prices, which have increased 17% over the same period. We raise our 2021 EPS forecast for Alba to BHD0.244 (previously BHD0.053) after Q1 21 EPS of BHD0.037. The Q1 21 profit of BHD52mn printed 63% above the Q4 20 figure of BHD32mn and beat our net profit estimate of BHD48mn – see ...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will report Q1 21 results on 3 May 2021. We expect the company to post a net profit of BHD45mn for the quarter which will be the highest in profits since Q4 2012. This compares to a net profit of BHD32mn in Q4 20 and a net profit of BHD5.8mn in Q1 20. The metal and commodities price rally in Q1 21 saw Aluminium prices gain 11% qoq to US$2,188. Although speculations of a commodity supercycle continue to grow, it might still be early to call, in our view. Nevertheless, ...
We update our estimates for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) post a Q4 20 net profit of BHD32mn. This was an impressive bounce back from a net loss of BHD11.6mn in the previous quarter and also beat our net profit estimate of BHD29.9mn–see preview note. It also marks the highest Q4 profits in the company's past five decades. The stock trades at 8.6x 2020f EV/EBITDA (versus peers at 7.7x) and offers a 2021f and 2022f free cash flow (FCF) yield of 20% each. We are optimistic of sustained high aluminium...
Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) will report Q4 20 results on 10 Feb 2021. We expect the company to post a net profit of BHD29.9mn for the quarter. This compares to a net loss of BHD11.6mn in Q3 20 and a net profit of BHD13.8mn in Q4 19. During the quarter, aluminium prices rose 11% qoq to close 2020 at US$1,980. This was due to increased demand in the US and China, as economic and industrial activities recovered. Meanwhile, production remained stable; up by 2% to 16.4 million tonnes (mt) in Q4 20. W...
Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) will report Q3 20 results today (26 October 2020). We expect the company to post a net profit of BHD4.6mn for the quarter. This compares to a net loss of BHD16.4mn in Q2 20 and a net profit of BHD10.7mn in Q3 19. Aluminium prices improve with the recovery in Chinese demand. According to Reuters, China's aluminium consumption is now expected to grow 1.6% yoy in 2020. This claim could be supported by the increase in Asian ingot premiums, which have jumped 13% since July...
We update our estimates for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) post Q2 20 net loss of BHD16.4mn, weaker than our net loss estimate of BHD6.1mn – see preview note. The stock trades at 9.9x 2020f EV/EBITDA (versus peers at 6.9x), and offers a 2020f and 2021f free cash flow (FCF) yield of 6% and 30%, respectively. Our new (and lower) assumptions for aluminium and alumina prices suggest that net losses could continue for the next four quarters until Q2 21. We reduce our valuation estimate by 11% to BHD0.58....
Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) will report Q2 20 results on 26 July 2020. We expect the company to post a net loss of BHD6.1mn for the quarter. This compares to a net profit of BHD5.8mn in Q1 20 and a net loss of BHD3.3mn in Q2 19. Weak aluminium prices due to 9% yoy lower global demand, 1% yoy higher production. According to S&P Global, global aluminium consumption stood at 29.2mt in H1 20 versus 32.2mt in H1 19 (9% yoy lower). On the other hand, the global aluminium production increased 1% yoy in...
Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) will report Q1 20 results today (4 May). We expect the company to post a net profit for the quarter of BHD6.8mn.This compares to a net loss of BHD15.8mn in Q1 20 and a net profit of BHD13.6mn in Q4 19. We expect a 40% qoq decline in gross profit primarily due to 9% lower net sales (7% decrease in volume, 2% lower unit revenue).The decline in sales volume is based on the data from World Aluminium which suggests a similar decline in production from the Asia (ex-China) r...
We update our estimates to reflect lower aluminium price forecasts and trim 2019f-20f earnings by c17-28%. We now assume: (1) lower aluminium and alumina prices; and (2) higher energy costs and lower finance costs in 2019f. For the period 2021f-23f, we keep our aluminium price assumption unchanged but reduce the alumina price by 10% (in order to bring it in line with current prices). This reduces our valuation estimate for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) by 19% to BHD0.80/share. The stock trades at an ...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is one of the largest aluminium smelters in the world. The company has a 1.0mtpa primary aluminium facility and produces a range of products, such as billets, liquid metal, rolling slabs, foundry alloys and standard ingots. Alba is currently adding its sixth potline (Line-6) with a capacity of 540 kilotonnes (kt) for an investment of cUS$3bn. The Line-6 Expansion Project (The Project) is on track to start production in January 2019 and will make Alba the largest single-s...
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