Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, INDRA. Technology and Industry lead the way to start the year European stock markets have kicked off the year with gains, underpinned by the rally in AI and the rise in defence companies. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were once again Technology and Industrials (in view of the complicated geopolitical situation), whereas Food and Autos ended with the biggest drops. On the macro side, in Spain the number of unemployed for December fell unexpectedly, and the job...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AENA, INDRA. EUROPA: UNICREDIT. Tecnología e Industria lideran el arranque del año Las bolsas europeas han comenzado el año al alza apoyadas en el rebote de la IA y la apuesta por las compañías de defensa. En el STOXX 600, los mejores sectores volvieron a ser Tecnología e Industriales (ante el complejo panorama geopolítico) mientras que Alimentación y Autos terminaron con las mayores correcciones. Por el lado macro, en España el número de parados d...
NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, AENA, AMADEUS, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, EBRO FOODS, NATURGY, NEINOR HOMES, TELEFÓNICA. Awaiting new drivers Most European indices, with the exception of peripheral markets, ended with slight corrections in a session without macroeconomic data. In the STOXX 600, almost all sectors (16/20) ended with gains, led by Basic Resources and Telecommunications vs. the bigger drops of Technology and Construction. On the macro side, in the euro zone, November’s final inflation was cut one...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS HOMES, AENA, AMADEUS, CIE AUTOMOTIVE, EBRO FOODS, NATURGY, NEINOR HOMES, TELEFÓNICA A la espera de nuevos catalizadores Poco movimiento en Europa en una jornada descargada de datos macro que terminó con tímidas pérdidas en la mayoría de los índices salvo para la periferia. En el STOXX 600, casi todos los sectores (16/20) terminaron con ganancias, lideradas por R. Básicos y Telecomunicaciones frente a las mayores caídas de Tecnología y Construc...
Today, we are publishing the Automotive section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. We will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry later this week. Auto demand came in above expectations, with limited signs of an air-pock...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, AENA, COLONIAL, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, MERLIN, REPSOL, SANTANDER, TALGO. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Markets see profit taking European stock markets ended up with profit taking in a session that ended worse than it began in a technical movement to digest th...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, AENA, COLONIAL, MERLIN, REPSOL, SANTANDER, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO, TALGO. EUROPA: ALLIANZ, PROSUS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Toma de beneficios en mercado Las bolsas terminaron recogiendo beneficio...
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, ARCELORMITTAL, FCC, LOGISTA, ROVI. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Stock markets recover It was another session that ended better than it began for European markets that, after the opening bell in the US and the solid macro data releases, shifted towards green numbers. In the STOXX 6...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AENA, ARCELORMITTAL, FCC, LOGISTA, ROVI. EUROPA: DHL. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Recuperación de los mercados Nueva jornada de menos a más en los mercados europeos, que tras la apertura de las bolsas en EE.UU. y los buenos ...
3Q'25 vs. 3Q'24 Results Sales: € 1.789 Bn (+8.4% vs. +8.5% BS(e) and +7.3% consensus); EBITDA: € 1.19 Bn (+7.4% vs. +5.9% BS(e) and +5.9% consensus); 9M'25 vs. 9M'24 Results Sales: € 4.785 Bn (+8.8% vs. +8.9% BS(e) and +8.4% consensus); EBITDA: € 2.883 Bn (+8.2% vs. +7.6% BS(e) and +7.6% consensus);
Rdos. 3T'25 vs 3T'24: Ventas: 1.789 M euros (+8,4% vs +8,5% BS(e) y +7,3% consenso); EBITDA: 1.190 M euros (+7,4% vs +5,9% BS(e) y +5,9% consenso). Rdos. 9meses'25 vs 9meses'24: Ventas: 4.785 M euros (+8,8% vs +8,9% BS(e) y +8,4% consenso); EBITDA: 2.883 M euros (+8,2% vs +7,6% BS(e) y +7,6% consenso).
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, REPSOL, ROVI, SANTANDER, TALGO. Shutdown in the US Govt. European stock markets saw gains despite the US newsflow suggesting a government shutdown. In this regard, the Senate rejected the Republican party’s resolution which would have maintained Govt. financing through 21/11 as it did not include an extension to healthcare subsidies (Affordable Care Act), which could affect around 750,000 public jobs. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sector was Household, with the mixed...
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