MAHANAGAR GAS: Margin pressures persist; volumes at a record high (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1b, CMP INR790, TP INR951, 20% Upside, Buy) MAHGL reported an inline earnings. Record high volumes of 3.45mmscmd (up 44% YoY and 9% QoQ) has been offset by a softer EBITDA margin at INR9.1/scm (down 35% YoY). EBITDA stood at INR2.8b (down 6% YoY, but up 33% QoQ). While sales volumes were soaring higher in 1QFY23 due to a base effect, we expect a muted growth in FY24 over FY23 due to a lack of growth oppo...
(MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.3b, CMP INR997, TP INR1200, 20% Upside, Buy) Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL) reported mixed 2QFY22 results, with volumes 11% higher than our estimate at 3.1mmscmd, while EBITDA/scm was lower at INR10.5 (v/s our estimate of INR12.5 and INR13.9 in 1QFY22). Thus, EBITDA came in line (at INR3b) with our estimate. The volume recovery was strong as economic activities returned to normal, with total volumes growing further by 7-8% in Oct’21 (~3.34mmscmd). The EBITDA margin decline...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
MAHANAGAR GAS: Margin sustainability the biggest question? (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR1109, TP INR1315, 19% Upside, Buy) MAHGL reported a beat on our estimates, led by highest ever EBITDA/scm (of INR13.9), on the back of improved realization, with lower gas cost. Total volumes were in line, down 17% QoQ at 2.4mmscmd (CNG down 23%), impacted by the second wave of COVID-led lockdowns. The management said that prices of CNG and PNG Industrial/Commercial are linked to prevailing pric...
MAHANAGAR GAS: Volumes remain a concern, margin normalizes (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.7b, CMP INR1196, TP INR1125, 6% Downside, Neutral) Mahanagar Gas' (MAHGL) 3QFY20 EBITDA/scm and volume growth were in line with our estimates. Lower price of alternate fuels led to lower realization in the industrial/commercial segments; however, margin was supported by lower spot LNG prices and reduction in APM gas prices. Since the start of FY20, the company has struggled to clock volume growth (3% YoY f...
MAHANAGAR GAS: Volume growth concerns intensify (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.4b, CMP INR1004, TP INR978, 3% Downside, Neutral) EBITDA/scm came in line with our estimate at INR9.9 (+22% YoY) in 2QFY20, mainly due to better price realization (MAHGL took a price hike in the first week of July) and lower spot prices. Reported EBITDA was up 23% YoY at INR2.7b. Depreciation stood at INR3.9b and interest cost at INR15m on account of adoption of Ind-AS 116. PBT was up 23% YoY at INR2.6b. The company ...
MAHANAGAR GAS: Highest ever EBITDA/scm; not sustainable (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.1b, CMP INR785, TP INR881, 12% Upside, Neutral) Mahanagar Gas has reported 1QFY20 earnings with adoption of IndAS-116. EBITDA came in at INR2.8b (+25% est.; +31% YoY), with highest ever EBITDA/scm of INR10.3 (v/s INR8.1 in 1QFY19 and INR7.9 in 4QFY19). MAHGL soucres it's gas for ind/comm on spot basis. Sharp decline in spot LNG prices compared with lack of commensurate correction in competing liquid fuels re...
Mahanagar Gas: Threat on volumes/margin from likely lapse of marketing exclusivity (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.3b, CMP INR889, TP INR1007, 13% Upside, Neutral) MAHGL’s volumes were in line with our estimate at 3.01mmscmd (+7% YoY, +1% QoQ) for 4QFY19. However, higher opex led by inventory/pipeline provisions and other repairs/maintenance costs resulted in lower EBITDA/scm of INR7.9 (our estimate: INR9.2). As a result, EBITDA of INR2.1b (+21% YoY, -11% QoQ) came in lower than our estimate of I...
Q3FY19 highlights Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported in line EBITDA/PAT of Rs2.4bn/Rs1.5bn growing 19/19.6% yoy respectively, driven by higher than expected margins. 9MFY19 EBITDA/PAT of Rs6.7bn/4.1bn grew 11% yoy (9MFY18 EBITDA/PAT of Rs6bn/3.7bn). Overall volumes of 2.96mmscmd, +8.1% yoy, in line, and well above average volume growth of 5.4% over FY14-18. CNG/Dom /Ind+Comm volumes grew 8.3/13.3/2.5% yoy to 2.2/0.4/0.4 mmscmd. 9MFY19 volumes of 806 mmscm (2.93 mmscmd) have grown by 9.8% yoy. MGL...
Mahanagar Gas: Volume growth impressive; EBITDA/scm outperformance driven by Fx (mahgl IN, Mkt Cap USD1.3b, CMP INR920, TP INR1300, 41% Upside, Buy) Against our expectation of +6% volume growth, MAHGL’s total volume growth came in at +8% YoY for 3QFY19. INR appreciation helped the company to increase its EBITDA/scm from INR8.1 in 2QFY19 to INR8.8 in the quarter. Led by higher volumes and margins, EBITDA came in at INR2.4b (est. INR2.2b, +19% YoY, +8% QoQ), while PAT came in at INR1.5b (es...
Q2FY19 highlights Mahanagar Gas (MGL) delivered another strong quarter, with reported EBITDA/PAT of Rs2.2bn/Rs1.36bn growing 10.6/9.3% yoy respectively, on the back of strong volume growth and resilient margins. Earnings were above IDFCe EBITDA/PAT of Rs2/1.25bn. Overall volumes of 2.96mmscmd, +9.5% the second successive quarter of above trend volume growth (Average growth of 5.4% over FY14-18) – above IDFCe 2.9 mmscmd. CNG/Dom PNG/Ind+Comm volumes grew 9.2/11.7/8.9% yoy to 2.2/0.4/0.4 mmscm...
Mahanagar Gas: Evident from strong volumes, it’s attractive play on pollution-control focus (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.2b, CMP INR855, TP INR1133, 33% Upside, Buy) Strong volumes drive EBITDA/PAT outperformance EBITDA rose 11% YoY (+5% QoQ) to INR2.2b, ahead of our estimate of INR2.1b, led by better-than-expected sales volume. Volume growth was impressive at 9% YoY (our estimate: +6% YoY). PAT grew 9% YoY (+6% QoQ) to INR1.4b, boosted by (a) lower depreciation of INR308m (our estimate: INR3...
Q1FY19 result highlights Mahanagar Gas (MGL) reported PAT of Rs1.28bn (+3% yoy, 22% qoq), well ahead of estimates of Rs1.12bn, with EBITDA of Rs2.1bn (+4% yoy, +20% qoq) also strongly ahead of IDFCe Rs1.8bn. The beat was driven by the strongest yoy growth in volumes in the last 9 quarters at 11.9% to 2.87 mmscmd vs IDFCe 2.71 mmscmd. A strong 12.6% yoy growth in CNG to 2.12 mmscmd driven by higher alternate fuel prices, relicensing of Auto/taxi in MMR and higher private vehicle conversion ...
Mahanagar Gas: Strong EBITDA beat led by strong volumes growth and healthy margins (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.4b, CMP INR947, TP INR1097, 16% Upside, Buy) MGL's adjusted EBITDA of INR2.2b (+10% YoY, +27% QoQ) was ahead of our estimate of INR1.8b, led by higher-than-expected sales volume and better margins. Adjusted EBITDA/scm jumped to INR8.6 (est. of INR7.3; -2% YoY, +22% QoQ). Volume growth of 12% YoY was significantly ahead of our estimate of 6% YoY in 1QFY19. PAT grew 14% YoY (+35% QoQ) ...
Q4FY18 result highlights PAT of Rs1bn (+6% yoy/-15% qoq, IDFCe Rs1.26bn); Reported EBITDA of Rs1.8bn (+8% yoy, IDFCe Rs2bn). Miss driven by Rs120mn of additional provision in gas costs of which only 40mn was pertaining to the qtr. Sales volumes of 2.8 mmscmd (+6.7/2% yoy/qoq, IDFCe 2.76) with CNG/Dom/Ind+comm volumes growth at 6.7/9.0/5% respectively. Gross margins of Rs11.6/scm up 5% yoy but lower than the average levels of Rs12.2/scm seen in 9MFY18. EBITDA margins at Rs7/scm, +1.3% yoy bu...
Mahanagar Gas: EBITDA below estimate; CNG/PNG volumes up 7% YoY (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.4b, CMP INR790, TP INR936, 18% Upside, Buy) MGL's EBITDA of INR1.8b (+8% YoY, -12% QoQ) was below our estimate of INR2b, led by higher cost. EBITDA/scm stood at INR7.0 (est. of INR8.0; INR8.0 in 3QFY18, INR6.9 in 4QFY17). The company provided INR79m for Gujarat VAT adjustment with effect from Aug'18. It also provided INR37m for adjustment on account of GST. Adjusting for this, EBIDTA/scm stood at INR7....
Q3FY18 result highlights PAT of Rs1240mn (+25% yoy/-0.6% qoq, IDFCe Rs1.29bn); Reported EBITDA of Rs2bn (+20% yoy, IDFCe Rs2bn). Higher gross margins of Rs3.08bn (+19% yoy, IDFCe Rs3.05bn) offset by higher opex. Sales volumes of 2.74 mmscmd (+7/1% yoy/qoq, IDFCe 2.7) with CNG/Dom/Ind+comm volumes growth at 6.6/9.8/7.2% respectively. Gross margins of Rs12.2/scm up 11.5% yoy but lower than the record levels of Rs12.7/scm seen in Q1FY18. EBITDA margins at Rs8/scm, +12% yoy but 1% lower qoq. A...
Mahanagar Gas: EBITDA above estimate; CNG/PNG volumes up 7%/8% YoY; Upgrade to Buy (MAHGL IN, Mkt Cap USD1.4b, CMP INR974, TP INR1228, 26% Upside, Upgrade to Buy) MGL’s reported EBITDA of INR2b (+20% YoY, flat QoQ) was above our estimate of INR1.9b, led by higher volumes and lower opex. EBITDA/scm stood at INR8.0 (our estimate: INR7.7; INR7.10 in 3QFY17, INR8.1 in 2QFY18). PBT rose 22% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR1.9b (our estimate: INR1.8b). PAT stood at INR1.24b (our estimate: INR1.2b; +25% Yo...
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