Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact, and we continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EM (EEM-US) remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively. Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure. The Nikkei 225 displays a 2-month base breakout, and the TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes are on the cusp of 3-month breakouts to multi-decade highs. This signals a continuation of the uptren...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Commodities Bullishly Inflecting; Buy Energy, Materials A weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support our constructive intermediate-term outlook. Below we highlight recent positive developments and areas of the market that are actionable at current levels. · Recent Positive Developments. Recent positive developments include the MSCI ACWI and EAFE (ACWI-US, EFA-US) breaking to new highs while the MSCI ACWI ex-US and EM (ACWX-US, EEM-US) indexes are holding above important suppo...
Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. · Market Dynamics Remain Positive. Our bullish outlook is supported by much more than simply a lack of support violations on major global indexes -- though this is a maj...
We lower Sinopec's fair value estimate to HKD 6.10 (ADR of USD 78) from HKD 6.40 (USD 82) as we cut our near-term crude oil price assumptions. The Energy Information Administration, or EIA, lowered its 2019 forecast for the price of Brent crude by 4.6% to USD 66.69 per barrel, citing weaker global demand, although its 2020 estimate is unchanged at USD 67. Our near-term futures-based price assumptions point to further weakness and we factor in a Brent crude price forecast of USD 64.75, USD 59.48 ...
China Petroleum & Chemical, better known as Sinopec, is the listed arm of one of China's two integrated oil majors and one of Asia's largest refiners and chemical companies in terms of revenue. Owing in part to historical legacy, Sinopec’s revenue and assets are more heavily weighted toward its downstream activities and the company relies on external sources of oil to meet its refining and processing needs. As a result, Sinopec’s earnings are generally less sensitive to oil prices swings tha...
We lower Sinopec's fair value estimate to HKD 6.10 (ADR of USD 78) from HKD 6.40 (USD 82) as we cut our near-term crude oil price assumptions. The Energy Information Administration, or EIA, lowered its 2019 forecast for the price of Brent crude by 4.6% to USD 66.69 per barrel, citing weaker global demand, although its 2020 estimate is unchanged at USD 67. Our near-term futures-based price assumptions point to further weakness and we factor in a Brent crude price forecast of USD 64.75, USD 59.48 ...
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, or Sinopec, posted first-quarter 2019 net profit of CNY 15.5 billion that is slightly better than we expected, driven by an unexpected rebound to profit in its upstream exploration and production, or E&P, segment. Given management guidance that sharply lower selling, general and administrative, or SGA, expenses will normalize, we are, however, not changing the bulk of our assumptions. The only change we make is to raise our average oil prices for 2019 and 2020 by...
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, or Sinopec, posted first-quarter 2019 net profit of CNY 15.5 billion that is slightly better than we expected, driven by an unexpected rebound to profit in its upstream exploration and production, or E&P, segment. Given management guidance that sharply lower selling, general and administrative, or SGA, expenses will normalize, we are, however, not changing the bulk of our assumptions. The only change we make is to raise our average oil prices for 2019 and 2020 by...
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, or Sinopec, posted first-quarter 2019 net profit of CNY 15.5 billion that is slightly better than we expected, driven by an unexpected rebound to profit in its upstream exploration and production, or E&P, segment. Given management guidance that sharply lower selling, general and administrative, or SGA, expenses will normalize, we are, however, not changing the bulk of our assumptions. The only change we make is to raise our average oil prices for 2019 and...
China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec, guided for a 15.5% jump in capital expenditures for 2019 that is a dampener on sentiment. After reducing our profit forecast by an average 20% over the next five years, we are lowering our fair value estimate to HKD 6.20 (USD 71 per ADR) from HKD 6.50 (USD 84) to reflect reduced free cash flow expectations. However, we still believe that impending spin-off of its marketing and pipeline assets will lead to lower cash flow needs. Sinopec’s 2018 dividend pa...
China Petroleum & Chemical, better known as Sinopec, is the listed arm of one of China's two integrated oil majors and one of Asia's largest refiners and chemical companies in terms of revenue. Owing in part to historical legacy, Sinopec’s revenue and assets are more heavily weighted toward its downstream activities and the company relies on external sources of oil to meet its refining and processing needs. As a result, Sinopec’s earnings are generally less sensitive to oil prices swings tha...
Sinopec's 2018 profit guidance and update on subsidiary Unipec, points to a trading loss of CNY 4.65 billion that will be booked into 2018 results, which is smaller than what we and the market expected. The profit guidance itself, under China GAAP, points to an operating performance that should be around 6% above our estimate. At this stage it's difficult to ascertain the drivers of the deviation, and we maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate of HKD 6.50 per share (USD 84 per ADR). As ...
China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec, guided for a 15.5% jump in capital expenditures for 2019 that is a dampener on sentiment. After reducing our profit forecast by an average 20% over the next five years, we are lowering our fair value estimate to HKD 6.20 (USD 71 per ADR) from HKD 6.50 (USD 84) to reflect reduced free cash flow expectations. However, we still believe that impending spin-off of its marketing and pipeline assets will lead to lower cash flow needs. Sinopec’s 2018 dividend .....
Sinopec's 2018 profit guidance and update on subsidiary Unipec, points to a trading loss of CNY 4.65 billion that will be booked into 2018 results, which is smaller than what we and the market expected. The profit guidance itself, under China GAAP, points to an operating performance that should be around 6% above our estimate. At this stage it's difficult to ascertain the drivers of the deviation, and we maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate of HKD 6.50 per share (USD 84 per ADR). As m...
Sinopec's 2018 profit guidance and update on subsidiary Unipec, points to a trading loss of CNY 4.65 billion that will be booked into 2018 results, which is smaller than what we and the market expected. The profit guidance itself, under China GAAP, points to an operating performance that should be around 6% above our estimate. At this stage it's difficult to ascertain the drivers of the deviation, and we maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate of HKD 6.50 per share (USD 84 per ADR). As ...
We are lowering our fourth-quarter profit estimate for no-moat-rated Sinopec after additional assessment of its potential mark-to-market inventory losses. We have also factored in increased losses related to its oil hedging trades. This leads to a 21% cut in our 2018 earnings estimate to CNY 67.2 billion and implies that the company’s fourth-quarter net profit will drop 86% year over year from growth of 45% for the first three quarters, leaving full-year 2018 EPS growth at 31%. Our post-2018 i...
We are lowering our fourth-quarter profit estimate for no-moat-rated Sinopec after additional assessment of its potential mark-to-market inventory losses. We have also factored in increased losses related to its oil hedging trades. This leads to a 21% cut in our 2018 earnings estimate to CNY 67.2 billion and implies that the company’s fourth-quarter net profit will drop 86% year over year from growth of 45% for the first three quarters, leaving full-year 2018 EPS growth at 31%. Our post-2018 i...
We are lowering our fourth-quarter profit estimate for no-moat-rated Sinopec after additional assessment of its potential mark-to-market inventory losses. We have also factored in increased losses related to its oil hedging trades. This leads to a 21% cut in our 2018 earnings estimate to CNY 67.2 billion and implies that the company’s fourth-quarter net profit will drop 86% year over year from growth of 45% for the first three quarters, leaving full-year 2018 EPS growth at 31%. Our post-2018 i...
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