Still Expecting Weakness; Many Sector Weighting Changes We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, likely to 67...
Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact As discussed throughout the first half of January, and reiterated in our 2/3/25 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We also discussed our non-concern as it related to the Canada/Mexico tariff situation, calling the pullback a buying opportunity. Now, we are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidatio...
Tariff Tantrum Underway; Market Dynamics Still Risk-On As discussed throughout the first half of January, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved relatively quickly, and therefore we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity. Bottom line: market dynamics remain risk-on, and our outlook remains bullish as long as t...
Downgrading Industrials and Materials to Underweight We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as uptrends remain intact; the formation of new uptrends has been our expectation since late-April (4/30/24 Compass). Near-term we continue to expect to see support at the upside gaps from June 12 and also the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (5375-5408) and QQQ ($467-472). These are strong support levels. Longer-term, we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and the QQQ is above...
Still Riding the Trend Higher; Upgrading Real Estate to Market Weight After discussing our expectations for a bounce in our 10/30/23 ETF Pathfinder with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing major support at $162-$163, we outlined in our 11/20/23 ETF Pathfinder that we were shifting our outlook to bullish. Market-generated information has continued to be of the risk-on variety, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. Therefore, we continue to expect a rally into year-...
S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the Decembe...
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
Bear Market Rally Underway Key supports including the 200-week MA on the S&P 500 and $163 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) have held strong, and the S&P 500, IWM, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have all reversed topside their 2-month downtrends. As discussed in our previous ETF Pathfinder (Oct. 17), this is precisely what we needed to see in order to confirm that a bear market rally is underway. Longer-term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day ...
Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...
tick With Value; Gold Breaking Out As noted in our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 31), we remain bearish on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) as long as they remain below important resistance levels of $208 and $134, respectively. Additionally, we noted our expectation for sideways consolidation on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), but that as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. These levels have held, however we will reiterate t...
S&P 500 Testing Short-Term Support Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the major indexes and all Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500 Levels. We see short-term support on the S&P 500 at 3630-3645. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 followed by 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropr...
Upgrades: Industrials, Energy, Small-Caps, Int'l Equities Market dynamics remain positive and we believe the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below are several observations that help lead us to our bullish outlook. · Small-Caps Leading The Way. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out to all-time highs and RS shows a major bullish reversal -- overweight small-caps. We view this as an important risk-on signal and is exactly what we would expect to see in a broad-based bull...
S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. • Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we s...
Market purgatory continues Despite the generally positive developments highlighted below, our outlook remains neutral and we see the S&P 500 remaining rangebound between support at 2,720-2,730 and resistance at the all-time highs of 2,954. We continue to believe an eventual breakout or breakdown is likely to be the deciding factor as to where the market is headed next. • U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has weakened and is testing critical support. We continue to believe further weakening has th...
Upgrading Staples, Downgrading Energy We are downgrading our outlook to neutral as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, weakness in “Dr.†copper, and crude oil's breakdown. • Key levels on S&P 500, U.S. dollar. Our neutral outlook is supported by a consolidating market and a number of mixed technical signals. On th...
Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads a...
The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip†strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.