The general evaluation of SBERBANK OF RUSSIA SPN. (RU), a company active in the Money Center Banks industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date January 7, 2022, the closing price was RUB ...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
IMF downgrade, US jobs weakness, COVID resurgence Ahead: Cautious trade at play. The IMF again downwardly revised its global growth forecast, projecting 2020 GDP of -4.9%, lower than the -3% predicted in April. Enthusiasm will be further tempered ahead of US jobless claims, which are expected to remain extraordinarily high, while a resurgence in confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US (as well as Germany, LatAm), linked to the reopening of businesses, is also dimming the economic recovery outlook. ...
Fed & COVID – Sell-off not exhausted Week Ahead: Thursday’s sell-off may suggest exuberance wearing thin. While Russia closed up shop for the holiday, following Thursday’s long overdue sell-off, European markets rose slightly on Friday. Still, room for a deeper correction remains and investors will be watching for all the usual warning signs – although another wave of COVID cases worldwide seems almost a guarantee, a second lockdown may not be, as the political will to impose restricti...
Eyes on US Fed Ahead: Anticipatory uptick, if only – Optimism has limits. Expect a modicum of select buying the dip as well as some wading in by Fed-largess believers. Indeed, players remain generally optimistic in the prospects of a ‘U’-shaped recovery, and some Fed watchers anticipate yet more verbiage from Chair Powell to ‘do everything it takes’ to ensure stability. However, optimism has its limits – a dour tone from Powell on the outlook for US and global growth and/or an ina...
‘U-V’ Recovery, $43 Brent Week Ahead: Riding momentum, OPEC+ … for now. Still operative, rising speculation that a ‘U’-shaped economic recovery is increasingly feasible as quarantined economies re-open – even a ‘V’-recovery has re-entered the dialogue, supported by the surprise surge in the US jobs report. Also, the arguably improving demand outlook (e.g., China’s crude imports hit an all-time high in May) together with the agreement of OPEC+ to extend the current record lev...
Recovery, OPEC+ hopes, ECB ‘600’ Ahead: Tempered into the weekend. The ‘Russia trade’ appears ripe for some bargain hunting after the kneejerk Norilsk-led selloff yesterday. Indeed, the economic ‘reopening’ card is still at play and, bolstering risk appetite, OPEC+ appears set to meet on 6-7 June to discuss extending current record-level cuts beyond June – easing some angst as the meet had been expected to held yesterday, but was delayed due to commitment issues, which thus far ...
Lordy Lordy Brent is Forty ($), Recovery Bets Ahead: Playing OPEC+ / ‘U’ card. New day, same story – but no one is complaining. Leading the charge – the duo of rising business activity as countries lift lock downs that have crippled their economies and now $40+ Brent on headlines that OPEC+ may extend its current record-level out cut beyond 1 July. And an uptick in China’s growth dynamic – May Composite PMI (54.5 v 47.6 prior) and Services PMI (55 v 44 prior) broke out of contract...
Fed-speak, FOMC Minutes v c$35Brent Ahead: Treading cautiously. After easing to mid-$34/bbl yesterday, Brent is again flirting with $35/bbl on signs of improving demand as countries worldwide begin to re-open their COVID-shuttered economies and a drawdown in US crude stockpiles (API). Nipping any undue enthusiasm in the bud, markets are cognizant of the COVID risks – i.e., the Moderna vaccine may not deliver, threat of wave 2 and consequent protracted economic downturn. Highlighting the dyna...
Fed-flags hoisted, COVID tugs at demand Ahead: Bears and Trader Paradise. No surprise, on the heels of carefully crafted economic red flags of key US Fed officers, the Chief hoisted the red banner higher. Powell, too, signaled a need for additional fiscal stimuli (not monetary, arguably, implying the Fed’s arsenal was running low), citing severe economic deterioration and warning of an “extended period†of weak economic growth. On the crude front, Brent remains range bound – US stockpi...
US jobs, Victory Day weekend Ahead: Quietly into Victory Day. For want of a clear driver, the theme today will be akin to ‘Sell in May, walk away’, if only for the Victory Day weekend. Indeed, Brent remains below $30/bbl on supply-demand pressure and growth remains dire. US employment data is only likely to further curb risk appetite – a staggering 22 million jobs are projected to have been lost in April. US, Asia up. US (S&P 500 +1.15%, DJIA +0.89%, NASDAQ +1.41%). Asia this morning (H...
Reopenings, c$31 Brent v COVID threat, Fed-speak Ahead: Too soon to ‘count chickens’. Ongoing measured reopenings of various economies worldwide have injected a modicum of optimism into the growth and demand outlook, bolstering the risk trade and Brent, also buoyed by scaled back US and OPEC+ production. Still, while economic reopenings and rising Brent offer relief, prudence warns it is too soon to ‘count chickens’. Indeed, COVID-19 remains a threat to recent reopenings / global growt...
Central banks, fundamentals govern Week Ahead: Risk trade tested. Yet more countries are easing COVID-restrictions in order to kick start their flagging economies. However, for want of evidence as to the timing and degree to which demand will recover, risk appetite and risk assets will come under pressure. Brent shed 22% last week and is trading lower this morning. Perhaps offering some support, albeit little and S-T, China’s PBoC on Friday cut interest rates and injected $11.3bn into the ban...
Virus ‘peak’ hopes fade, OPEC+ no done deal Ahead: Selling into strength operative. The caution exercised in later trade yesterday appears set to be operative. Some skepticism that COVID-19 was peaking appears to have been healthy – daily tally of deaths rose again in Italy and France, Germany and concerns of a second wave in China prompt another lockdown. And while players are betting OPEC+ itself will strike a deal, that remains to be seen, especially since the OPEC+ accord has been...
In this report, we resume coverage of BSPB and offer a more detailed view on our calls and target prices, updated in our Strategy. We are still slightly skewed to the Buy camp – SBER, BSPB and MOEX. TCS and VTB are Holds. - BCSe Base Case – 2020e Recession, GDP -2.7% y/y … ... worse than 2015 crisis: GDP declined by 2.0% - Banks affected -ive by higher CoR, NIM pressure on … … CBR rate hike to 7.5% end-‘20 (BCSe), Ruble depreciation to 72/$ eop - MOEX (Buy) – Resilient busi...
Sea of red on COVID-19 – Brent, Ruble hit Ahead: Bucking trend not likely. Global bourses are deep red, spooked by the un-abating spread of COVID-19 that has sent economic growth outlook spiraling downward. The consequent sapping of demand, together with an expected hit from the supply side (Saudi Arabia and Russia prepare to ramp up production), have sent Brent and the ruble plummeting. The Russia trade is set for another rocky ride. US, Asia down. US (S&P 500 -5.18%, DJIA -6.30%, NASDAQ -...
Bourses panic as ‘R’ risk rises Ahead: Friday 13th – Fear palpable; Bottom feeders lurking. Across global bourses, rising risk of recession has elevated fears and sent markets plunging in part for want of adequate response by country governments and central banks. Hence, some relief may come from the US Fed and PBoC. The former offered $1.5tn in short-term loans to stimulate the economy and stabilize the financial system; the latter appears set to stimulate (lowering RRR and other measur...
Brent claws back, inches Ahead: Trader’s market – Bears v Bulls. Following the selloff that was yesterday’s trade, risk appetite may attempt to stage a comeback – not a certainty, given the mixed performance of US (higher) and Asian (lower) markets. Brent has recouped some lost ground (c13%), now trading at $38+/bbl, in part after Russia said Moscow was ready to discuss new measures with OPEC and on headlines suggesting US shale producers may cut output due to the low prices. Still, any...
Oil price war + ‘C’-virus Ahead: No shortage of risk aversion – who will blink first? As if the ‘C’-virus were not enough to threaten global growth, add an oil price war to the ticket and the threat of recession rises. Indeed, a price war threatens all major economies, including the US, which thus far has been weathering the ‘C’-virus storm on the economic front. But this dynamic is at risk. In the M-T, it appears unlikely that Russia will backtrack and agree to OPEC’s proposal...
Pandemic fears go viral, global markets plunge Ahead: Only the brave, very brave. Global markets churn deeply red as the surge in the ‘C’-virus beyond China has elevated pandemic fears – now at 40% (Moody’s Analytics). The threat has prompted countries to ratchet up preparations to halt the spread of the contagion, which de facto is negative for business activity and world trade. Brent plunged >4% yesterday on demand risk and is still retreating. So,TGiF – expect no shortage of pruden...
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