reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing 1-month resistance All of the major averages (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) are testing key 1-month resistance levels. This test of short-term resistance comes despite new developments which continue to be of the negative variety, making it a logical area for the market to retreat. As a result, we remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook. • Negative developments continue. Copper exhibits signs of breaking down below the key $2.54-2.55 level, the small- vs. large-cap ratio (IJR/SPY...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
PPLT ABERDEEN STANDARD PHYSICAL PLATINUM SHARES ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
IOO ISHARES GLOBAL 100 ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Triple top? Or pullback opportunity? Despite U.S.-China tariff escalation and market weakness last week, major indexes - both domestic and foreign - are not yet breaking down. Neither are several important cyclical/risk-on areas of the market. At the same time, they are testing important support levels. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which, if support levels are broken, may alter our positive outlook. • Markets at logical support: As the S&P 500 Equal Weight index g...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KIE SPDR KBW INSURANCE ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
A14MTT ISHARES CURRENCY HEDGED MSCI GERMANY ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading defensive sectors: Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate We continue to grapple with the possibility that the Christmas Eve low was “the low,†while also considering the potential that the current oversold bounce may be a bear market rally - and that the potential for a retest of the December lows could be around the corner. Short-term market/technical developments and other observations below lead us to believe that a more constructive overall outlook on the broad market is warra...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
EZA ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWM ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA ETF
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
IVV ISHARES S&P 500 ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
EPHE ISHARES MSCI PHILIPPINES INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX ETF
A1138P ISHARES MSCI COLOMBIA CAPPED ETF
VUG VANGUARD GROWTH ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Technicals improving for int'l developed markets An ongoing concern of ours has been weak foreign markets which could potentially derail the U.S. markets' advance. The situation has improved in terms of price and RS for international developed markets (VEA, EFA) in recent weeks, adding to our already bullish U.S. outlook... see chart below. • Interest rates on the rise. 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have been climbing over the last several weeks and are currently just below critical r...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
XSW SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
DBE INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND
DBB INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
IVV ISHARES S&P 500 ETF
IUSV ISHARES CORE RUSSELL U.S. VALU
IUSG ISHARES CORE RUSSELL U.S. GROW
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 at new all-time highs with uptrend intact Risk-on. The S&P 500 has surpassed the January all-time high, staying above this level for over a week. What's more important is the 5-month uptrend remains intact and cyclical/risk-on areas are reasserting their leadership status. Think technology, discretionary, and biotech/medical devices - all current overweights. At the same time, defensive areas have petered out in terms of relative strength, exactly what we want to see in a healthy bull m...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
PPH VANECK VECTORS PHARMACEUTICAL
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
XSW SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
CRAK VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
RTH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
DBE INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND
DBB INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
PJP INVESCO DYNAMIC PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
IYZ ISHARES US TELECOMMUNICATION
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
XPH SPDR S&P PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
KIE SPDR KBW INSURANCE ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
PSCF INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP FINANCIALS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
YTD S&P 500 trading range continues; Avoid broad international exposure Constructive but murky outlook for U.S. equities paints an overall mixed picture, making sector/group/stock selection critical. • Bull case: (1) advance-decline (A-D) lines and other breadth indicators (% of stocks above 50-, 200-day moving averages) are neutral to positive; (2) price and RS uptrends remain intact for risk-on segments, including Technology (XLK), biotech (XBI, IBB), and growth stocks (IUSG); and (3) the ...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
CRAK VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
DBC INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
RTH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
DBE INVESCO DB ENERGY FUND
DBB INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
INDA ISHARES MSCI INDIA ETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
A115LY ISHARES MSCI QATAR CAPPED ETF
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
NORW GLOBAL X NORWAY ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWU SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
XOP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IGV BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWS SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
XSW SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KRE. VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
CRAK INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBC INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DBO ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
EWH ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
IEO ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EFNL ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWJ SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
XRT MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy and Small-caps • Energy and small-caps breaking out. We are upgrading both to overweight. Continued strength in oil prices has led the XLE to breakout topside resistance... see below and page 6. Also breaking out to new highs is the Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM)... see below and page 3. • Big picture trends: Interest rates, the USD, and commodities. The 10-year Treasury yield has continued to climb, moving as high as 3.115% last week to levels not seen since 2011. Wit...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWI POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY INDEX FUND
EWU POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
DBC SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
UUP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
XOP BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
- Thierry Huteau
- Thierry Huteau
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