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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking wi...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall. Breakdowns Remain Absent. There continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level, ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Long-Term Shift To Value Underway We believe the weight of the evidence suggests a mixed, but overall constructive market, and we continue to favor buying pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&P 500. We also explain why we believe value's outperformance is in its early stages. S&P 500. The S&P 500 has pulled back after being extended as it ran into resistance at the megaphone pattern. We believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities and we are constructive as long as the S&P ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The major averages (S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq) are showing signs of stalling out, with all breaking below uptrends that began at the lows of March. While we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves, this could very well be the beginning of the meaningful pullback that we have been concerned about. Price action today and in the coming week will help offer major clues as to whether this is yet another buying opportunity or a near-term top. We believe this is more likely to be the latter and wo...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Examining Prior Extended Periods Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. • Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Rec...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Macro Vision: U.S. Equity Strategy

The S&P 500 continues its march higher, however the troops have been unable to keep up with the generals and with this is an ounce of concern. Sending the generals into battle often ends up with no more leaders. Our view of the markets is to deploy a barbell approach of growth and safety. While growth continues to outperform, it does so without the small-caps. Meanwhile utilities and staples continue to march just behind the growth areas of the market, and have been unable to reach new RS highs ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. • Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we s...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Key Points: • The U.S. dollar is breaking its 16-month uptrend and is declining through its 200-day moving average and Gold is breaking to 6-year price highs. RS appears to be staging a reversal at a support level. (ex. GC00, GDX) • A number of Healthcare Sector names are breaking out or staging reversals. (ex. ITGR, CHE, XRAY, OMCL, MOH, WCG, ARWR, INCY, GILD, VRTX, IQV, MEDP, and CTLT)

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Key Points: • Gold appears to be developing a potential head-and-shoulders bottom. A break above the $128 level would be very bullish. (ex. GLD and GDX) • A number of restaurants are bullishly inflecting, trending up and to the right. (ex. JACK, DIN, SHAK, and YUM) • REIT's continue to be leadership (ex. PSB, HCP, HR, WELL, ARE, ESS, MAA, AMT, CCI, and SBAC)

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Communications and Energy We remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities and we are encouraged by recent developments highlighted below which are primarily of the bullish variety. • Upgrades: We are upgrading Comm. Services (XLC) to overweight and equal-weighted Energy (RYE) to market weight due to an RS breakout for the XLC and bullish RS reversals for several energy ETFs (RYE, XOP, IEO). Add exposure. See charts below and Sector comments on pages 4-5 for actionable ideas. • A...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

The good outweighs the bad Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish. At the same time, biotech has succumbed to weakness within Health Care -- a point for the bears as it is one aspect that puts a damper on risk sentiment. Overa...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Cyclicals at a critical juncture Our general outlook remains positive and unchanged on U.S. and foreign equities, however there are a number of concerns that still exist -- particularly as it relates to some key cyclical areas of the market. If the concerns highlighted below are eventually alleviated, we believe a more bullish outlook would be warranted. • Concern #1: Several cyclical areas of the market remain below resistance, including Financials (both in the U.S. and Europe - XLF, EUFN),...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 testing YTD lows The S&P 500 remains on shaky ground, recently slicing through 2,600, and now testing YTD lows. We view the YTD lows (~2,530) as an important area of support and some sort of a bounce, or at least a pause, is to be expected. The question is whether this level ultimately holds. Our outlook remains cautious and we put a high probability on a breakdown to new lows given weak longer-term internals and continued leadership of defensive Sectors, while banks and small-caps are ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Insights: Technical Appraisal of U. S. Equity Market

Looking Forward: Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market Market capitulations are a resignation of all hope. As volatility spikes and the market experiences wild gyrations, investors sell what they can to try to achieve some sense of stability. Support and resistance levels mean little other than as talking points. Let's face it, if investors want out, they want out. Here are a few guidelines to keep in mind as we work through the market's current unease. 1. Selling c...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...

USO UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWU SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
XOP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IGV BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWS SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
XSW SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KRE. VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
CRAK INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBC INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DBO ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
EWH ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
IEO ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EFNL ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWJ SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
XRT MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
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