Resilient H1’24, albeit in a challenging setting – H1’24 results showcased significant volume growth (+9% yoy), with Thrace reverting to positive sales growth (+3.5% yoy) for the first time after 9 consecutive quarters of negative yoy run-rates (which were hampered by high base effects -covid related products- and waning demand). H1 EBITDA grew c2% yoy (to €24.5m), thanks to +5.4% growth in Q1, with the highly competitive environment and tough conditions in the key markets (e.g. Central Europe, ...
2023: Better finish to a challenging year with strong cash flow – In a year characterized by subdued demand, Thrace managed to increase underlying EBITDA by 2.5% yoy to €44m, which was a bit better than our expected figure (€42m). Group turnover was down -12% yoy (€345m), driven by soft volumes (+0.5% yoy) and lower sales prices, while cycling a tough comparative vs 2022. On an underlying basis, namely excl. PPE, 2023 PBT shaped at €20.2m, down by c€2m, quite respectable performance in our view....
A director at Thrace Plastics Holding And Commercial Societe bought 25,000 shares at 4.369EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
Protracted low demand makes a challenging near-term backdrop… – Subdued demand has aggravated the near-term challenges for the group, as was evident in the H1’23 results, with group turnover -15% yoy and underlying EBITDA (adjusted for PPE products profitability in H1’22) down by a lower c5% yoy to €24m (-20% reported). The revenue drop was driven by both lower volumes and pricing (caused by raw materials price fall), with the protracted slow demand further exacerbated by the effect from the tou...
Thrace Group’s Q123 results highlight continued growth in underlying adjusted EBITDA (excluding personal protective equipment (PPE) related products), as it increased by 4% and 22% compared to Q122 and Q120 (pre-PPE boost) respectively. Despite a modest drop in Q123 volumes of 4%, management anticipates sustained continuing profitability in Q223. Management expects H123 EBITDA from the traditional portfolio to be in line with previous years’ levels at around €25m, which is consistent with our fo...
A tough 2022… – 2022 was a challenging year for Thrace, as the top line rolled down, largely driven by low demand across Europe, and sales and profitability normalized due to the payback in demand for health care products (PPE), following the temporary COVID boost over 2020-22, while also hit by significant raw material inflation. This was evident in the FY results, with sales -8% yoy landing at €394m and EBITDA -54% yoy at €48m (including some €5-6m from PPE). PBT shaped at €32m, or €22m underl...
Thrace Plastics’ FY22e core product PBT (excluding the c €5m pandemic-related personal protective equipment (PPE) boost and one-off financial income of €4.6m) should be well ahead of pre-COVID levels. Future growth from the more sustainable core products should be driven by the 2020–22 €102m reinvestment of the temporary boost to cash flow during that period from the high-margin PPE sales. While Thrace faces challenges in FY23 in terms of demand and costs, we expect to see accelerating growth an...
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
Thrace delivered another strong profit contribution in Q3, even after the expected slowdown in sales volumes to the medical subsector. This ongoing sector rotation, as well as prevailing input cost inflation, has been well-flagged and is already reflected in our unchanged divisional expectations. Thrace remains keenly focused on reinvesting the windfall gains generated from its medical sector exposure into long-term value creation for the business.
Thrace delivered another strong profit contribution in Q3, even after the expected slowdown in sales volumes to the medical subsector. This ongoing sector rotation, as well as prevailing input cost inflation, has been well-flagged and is already reflected in our unchanged divisional expectations. Thrace remains keenly focused on reinvesting the windfall gains generated from its medical sector exposure into long-term value creation for the business.
Thrace continued to successfully service high medical sector demand and support customers elsewhere in the face of input cost pressures in H121. Cash generation has boosted balance sheet strength and Thrace plans to increase capex to enhance business capabilities and its sustainability credentials. With more normal trading (ie sharply lower medical sector demand) factored in for FY22 and beyond – including slightly raised estimates – the valuation does not look stretched and the outlook for cash...
Thrace continued to successfully service high medical sector demand and support customers elsewhere in the face of input cost pressures in H121. Cash generation has boosted balance sheet strength and Thrace plans to increase capex to enhance business capabilities and its sustainability credentials. With more normal trading (ie sharply lower medical sector demand) factored in for FY22 and beyond – including slightly raised estimates – the valuation does not look stretched and the outlook for cash...
Robust H1’21 results… – Thrace Plastics reported a very robust set of results significantly above our expectations, mainly driven by the technical fabrics division and more specifically the continuing solid demand for PPE (personal protective equipment) products. Technical fabrics sales came in some 15% above our forecasts, with the EBITDA line some 20% above our expectations. This was largely a result of increased pricing, driven by the strong demand, especially for medical/personal protective ...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Broad product and geographic footprint – Thrace Plastics is a producer and distributor of plastic materials with a broad product portfolio, serving a diverse set of end market sectors. Following business rationalization and significant investments, Thrace looks well-placed to benefit from its extended geographical footprint (international sales 79% of the group), cyclical tailwinds and its focus on higher-margin products. In the short-term, the group continues to enjoy strong demand for medical/...
Broad product and geographic footprint – Thrace Plastics is a producer and distributor of plastic materials with a broad product portfolio, serving a diverse set of end market sectors. Following business rationalization and significant investments, Thrace looks well-placed to benefit from its extended geographical footprint (international sales 79% of the group), cyclical tailwinds and its focus on higher-margin products. In the short-term, the group continues to enjoy strong demand for medical/...
Record FY20 and Q121 results were founded upon Thrace’s strategic investment programme since 2015, reorienting the business towards higher-value segments. Our revised estimates reflect an expected normalisation of exceptional medical sector demand levels (FY21 upgraded, FY22 reset lower), but we expect ongoing group profitability to be well above pre-pandemic levels. Our DCF analysis infers that the current share price is factoring in overly conservative profit levels. The corollary of this is t...
Building on an impressive H1 performance, Thrace produced some record quarterly achievements in margins and profitability for both Technical Fabrics and Packaging in Q3. We are again raising our earnings estimates significantly given this strong business momentum. Thrace’s share price has performed well this year but, in the context of current profit levels and based on our DCF, the valuation appears to be far too low.
FY20 has started well for Thrace, building on prior year actions and servicing a sharp uplift in demand for its fabrics used in medical sector applications. A strong margin and cash inflow performance were the financial highlights of the first half and the company is investing in growth areas. On reinstated estimates – more than double previous levels – Thrace’s valuation is very low on conventional metrics, while reverse DCF inputs to derive the current share price appear overcautious in our vi...
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