In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba set out the first plan of his administration, which is to spend ¥10tril through FY30 further revitalizing Japan’s one-time globally dominant chip industry. The move comes after a ¥2tril package was announced last year and is seen as party of a ¥50tril private-public investment in Japanese chipmaking over the next decade. Pelham Smithers discusses beneficiaries.
Shin-Etsu’s YoY OP growth is set to accelerate in FY24 H2, reflecting improving markets and its restructuring efforts during FY23. Management appears to be approaching a decision to reduce its high cash position, which may add further to shareholder returns.
In this in-depth review of Shin-Etsu Chemical’s business, Joel Scheiman expects to see earnings return to peak levels in FY26, led by Electronics Materials. In addition, there is the likelihood of increasing dividends and further share repurchases.
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.
Although the Japanese economy, politics and stock market seem to be where they were this time last year, there is a seismic shift going on in the way the Japanese stock market behaves that could make investing in Japan in 2022 quite different to previous years. We look at how and why this shift has taken place and what it means for investing in Japan in the coming year.
Shin-Etsu Chemical will likely achieve record earnings in FY21, but the shares have traded broadly sidewise in 2021. A pullback that followed a brief surge in Sep may have been intensified by PVC plant troubles at Shintech, but we still expect earnings to exceed official guidance. The recent correction could therefore be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate shares.
The general evaluation of SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL (JP), a company active in the Speciality Chemicals industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date September 7, 2021, the closing...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Pelham Smithers presents his strategy for Q3 2021 and the changes to PSA's stock Focus List Table of Contents Overview 3 Background 4 Valuations & Value 5 The Case for “Muddle Through” 6 Consumer Spending 7 The Labour Market 7 The Currency and the Carry Trade 8 The BoJ and Policy 9 Japan’s Stuttering Economy 10 Stock Performance and Earnings Expectations 12 Catalysts: Digital Transformation, Semiconductors, Price Hikes ...
In the past, Shin-Etsu Chemical’s earnings performance has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of crises such as the 2000 tech bubble burst and the 2008 GFC. In this report, Joel Scheiman analyses the likely effect on the business of Covid-19, noting the attractions of Shin-Etsu’s diversified electronics materials business, while cash and marketable securities exceed cash by an eye-catching ¥1tril and valuations do not seem stretched.
v The Weekly Comment Joel Scheiman reviews the week which after hitting a 27-yr high on Oct 1, has been knocked back by contagion from sliding Asian markets and rising interest rates. v Reports / Flash Notes Summaries Stretching the MLCC Market: Implications for the Industry and Murata Mfg (6981 JP) Does “Murata Good, Skyworks / Avago / Qorvo Better†Still Hold True? September US Auto Sales – Japan Automakers Underperform on Falling Incentives Foster Electric (6794 JP) – C...
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