The general evaluation of BHARAT FORGE (IN), a company active in the Steel industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 29, 2022, the closing price was INR 707.95 an...
BHARAT FORGE: Strong beat led by Auto exports and non-Auto business (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD4.8b, CMP INR775, TP INR975, 26% Upside, Buy) BHFC’s robust performance in 2QFY22 was driven by a strong beat in Auto exports and the non-Autos business, despite an impact from the semiconductor shortage. While all core businesses are seeing a sharp cyclical recovery, BHFC’s initiatives to diversify into aluminum/light-weighting and EV components are starting to fructify. We raise our FY22E/FY23E con...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Bharat Forge: Below est.; Op. deleverage hurts; Business bottoming out (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD3.3b, CMP INR500, TP INR581, 16% Upside, Buy) Deep-down cycle hurts all businesses, except PVs Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) 3QFY20 is the manifestation of the deep-down cycle’s convergence across its key businesses, which has resulted in sharp EBITDA margin erosion despite stable operating margins. While near-term outlook is weak for both the India and export business, leading indicators are showing init...
EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out A weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. • EM Equities. Price action has remained weak for the US...
EM Breakout -- Add Exposure The laundry list of market characteristics consistent with historical bull markets continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief that global equities are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • US Dollar; EM Equities. The US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of rolling over, something we outlined as increasingly likely in our 12/10/19 Int'l Macro Vision strategy. This is bullish for global equities -- especially EM -- and has paved the way for the MSCI E...
Q2FY20 results Operating profit disappoints: BHFC’s adjusted operating EBITDA at Rs3bn was 18% below estimates. The PAT of Rs2.5bn (up 8% yoy) though benefitted from a lower tax rate. Revenue declines amid weak demand: Revenues at Rs 12.6b (down 25% yoy; 6%qoq) was 11% below estimates. While tonnage declined by 23% yoy, realisations were down 2% yoy. Domestic business revenue at Rs4.5bn was down by 36% yoy majorly due to decline across segments with the commercial vehicle segment (-63% yoy) ...
BHARAT FORGE: Below est.; Sharp decline across businesses hurts performanceBHARAT FORGE: Below est.; Sharp decline across businesses hurts performance(BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD2.8b, CMP INR428, TP INR540, 26% Upside, Buy)** 2QFY20 standalone (S/A) revenues declined 25% YoY to INR12.6b (v/s est. INR13.5b) due to lower tonnage (-23% YoY). Realizations declined 2.4% YoY to INR235.2k/t (v/s est. ~INR217.1k). EBITDA declined ~37% YoY to INR3b (v/s est. ~INR3.5b). EBITDA margins declined 450bp YoY (-230bp ...
BHARAT FORGE: Building blocks in place for the next phase of growth (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD2.7b, CMP INR418, TP INR523, 25% Upside, Buy) We attended Bharat Forge's (BHFC) Sell-side Analyst Day in Pune on 10th Oct'19. The theme of the meet was 'Looking beyond the cycle…Transformation continues,' where senior management shared insights on the initiatives for the new businesses (e-mobility, defence, etc.) and the focus areas for the existing businesses. While the core businesses of CV (India and t...
Q1FY20 results Operating profit disappoints: BHFC’s reported PAT of Rs1.7bn (down 26% yoy) was 34% below estimates. The variance was on account of weaker than expected revenues / margin. Revenue declines amid weak demand: Revenues at Rs 13.5b (down 9% yoy) was 19% below estimates. While tonnage declined by 9% yoy, realisations were down 17% sequentially (due to the completion of a large defence related order in Q4FY19). Domestic revenue at Rs5.6bn declined by 7% yoy as a 31% yoy decline in M...
BHARAT FORGE: Hurt by destocking in Oil & Gas and India CV (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD2.6b, CMP INR401, TP INR475, 19% Upside, Buy) Standalone revenue was down 9% YoY at INR13.5b (our estimate: INR17.1b) in 1QFY20 due to lower tonnage (-9% YoY/-3% QoQ to 60.9k ton). Realization declined 17% QoQ (flat YoY) to INR221.2k/ton (our estimate: ~INR267.5k) due to 2% price pass-through and de-growth in Oil & Gas/Defence. EBITDA declined 18% YoY to INR3.5b (our estimate: ~INR4.9b), with the margin contra...
Q4FY19 results Operating profit inline: Bharat Forge’s adjusted operating at Rs 4.85bn (+16% yoy) was inline with estimates. However, reported PAT at Rs3.0bn benefitted from a forex gain of Rs323mn leading to a beat of 8% above estimates. Strong revenue growth: Revenues at Rs 16.7b grew by 14% yoy was a tad below estimates. The growth was led by a sharp 18% yoy (+5% qoq) increase in realisations. The realisation growth was aided by commodity pass through and sales of higher value added produ...
Bharat forge: In-line operating performance; Headwinds emerging in key businesses (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD3.2b, CMP INR485, TP INR595, 23% Upside, Buy) S/A revenue grew 14% YoY to INR16.7b (our est. INR17.3b), as realization grew 24.7% YoY to INR266k/t, but tonnage declined ~4% YoY to 62.7k/t. EBITDA was in line at INR4.8b, up 22% YoY. EBITDA margin at 29.1% (our est. 28.3%) expanded 30bp QoQ (+200bp YoY). Higher other income, Fx gains and lower depreciation aided adj. PAT to grow 63% YoY to...
Q3FY19 results PAT ahead of estimates: Bharat Forge’s adjusted PAT at Rs 2.7bn (+18% yoy) was 8% ahead of street estimates. The beat was on higher other income and a better than expected operating performance. Strong revenue growth: Revenues at Rs 16.9b grew by 22% yoy led by sharp 5% qoq (19% yoy) increase in realisations. The realisation growth was aided by commodity pass through and sales of higher value added products. Exports grew by 25% yoy to Rs9.7bn as the momentum in the industrial ...
Bharat Forge: Above estimate driven by favorable mix; focus on broad-basing revenue (BHFC IN, Mkt Cap USD3.1b, CMP INR477, TP INR568, 19% Upside, Buy) Revenue marginally exceeds estimate: Revenue grew 22% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR16.9b (our estimate: INR16.6b), led by tonnage growth of 3% YoY to 66.8k tons (our estimate: 71.6k tons) and realization growth of 18.6% YoY (+5.2% QoQ) to INR253.5k/ton (our estimate: INR231.3k/ton; driven by a favorable mix and RM pass-through). Domestic /export re...
Q2FY19 results PAT broadly in-line: Bharat Forge’s PAT at Rs 2.3bn (+12% yoy) was broadly in-line with expectations. Operating performance post adjustment for notional exchange loss was in-line led by strong growth in the domestic CV segment and supported by strong demand from Class 8 trucks in North America. Strong revenues ;Operational performance in-line: Revenues at Rs 16.8b grew by 33% yoy led by 19% tonnage growth and supported by 12% yoy realisation boost.(+9% qoq) Exports grew by 34...
Q2FY19 results PAT broadly in-line: Bharat Forge’s PAT at Rs 2.3bn (+12% yoy) was broadly in-line with expectations. Operating performance post adjustment for notional exchange loss was in-line led by strong growth in the domestic CV segment and supported by strong demand from Class 8 trucks in North America. Strong revenues ;Operational performance in-line: Revenues at Rs 16.8b grew by 33% yoy led by 19% tonnage growth and supported by 12% yoy realisation boost.(+9% qoq) Exports grew by 34...
ANNUAL REPORT THREADBARE (ART) | BHARAT FORGE FY18: Performance impressive at standalone level, subdued at subsidiaries Bharat Forge’s (BHFC) FY18 annual report analysis highlights its strong operating performance, with EBITDA growing at 38% to INR17.2b led by standalone operations. PBT growth was lower at 25% to INR12b primarily due to exceptional loss on impairment provision for: (a) oil and gas exploration assets (at INR822m); and (b) loan to an associate (at INR132m). However, profitabil...
Q1FY19 results Adj PAT in line: Bharat Forge’s PAT at Rs 2.3bn (+23% yoy) was in-line with expectations. Operating performance too was in-line led by strong growth in the domestic CV segment and supported by strong demand from Class 8 trucks in North America. Operational performance in-line: Revenues at Rs 14.8b grew by 23% yoy led by 20% tonnage growth and supported by 3% yoy realisation boost. Exports grew by 26% yoy to Rs8.4bn with strong momentum in the CV business (+21% yoy) led by clas...
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