The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of NOVATEK MICROELECT (TW), active in the Semiconductors industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 1 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Negative. As of the analysis date February 15, 2022, the closing price was TWD 453.00 and its targe...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
AT: EVN - EVN to invest EUR 1 bn in security of supply and energy transition in Lower Austria in the next three years (neutral) AT: Rosenbauer - Prelim. FY 20 results ahead of forecasts, strong order intake in Q4, FY 21 outlook lives up to expectations (positive) AT: voestalpine - Cold spell in Lone Star State triggered production interruption at HBI plant (negative) HU: MOL - Q4 clean earnings broadly in line, but weaker contributions of the upstream and gas trading, uninspiring outlook...
-Revenue and EBITDA marginally above estimates on higher liquids sales prices -Final 2020 DPS might be RUB 16 based on revealed H2 20 normalised net income -Capex for North-Russkoye exceeded estimates, though its gas output also beat forecast
We have revised our forecasts and recommendation in response to the new tax regulation and changes in key assumptions. The main negative impact is expected on Tatneft (HOLD) with a 14% cut in 2021e EBITDA, Gazprom Neft (HOLD) will also suffer with a 14% decline of 2021e EBITDA and LUKoil (BUY) should also lose about 8% of its 2021e EBITDA. Rosneft (BUY), in turn, will have a relatively low impact of an only 3% EBITDA decline. Based on our new assumptions, 2021e EV/EBITDA multiples of Russian oil...
Today, Novatek released its 2Q 20 results, which turned out to be close to our estimates and consensus on both revenue and EBITDA. Moreover, the companys net income also came in almost in line with our forecast, while it exceeded the market expectations. More importantly, Novateks net operating cash flow came in considerably weaker than expected at only USD 61 mn mainly due to lower than forecasted cash flows from the companys JV (interest and dividends) as well as negative effect from changes i...
We are L-T bullish on the entire Russian Oil & Gas sector, projecting $50/bbl in the M-T – albeit cautious that oil prices may have recovered too much, too soon. Top Picks – LKOH, SNGSP on a risk-minimizing view. – L-T Bullish: Valuations underpinned by historically low risk-free rate … … our conviction that oil will return to $50/bbl in the medium term – S-T Savvy: Be ready to play – Oil prices could give up gains this summer … … falling back to the $30-$35/bbl range fo...
We are pleased to announce that Ronald Smith has joined the BCS GM Research Team as Lead Oil & Gas Analyst. Ron brings a wealth of experience, which will strengthen BCS research product and services. Ron will take over coverage from Kirill Tachennikov, who will move to another role within BCS Research – we sincerely thank Kirill for his contributions as an O&G analyst. Commencing immediately, Ron will be providing continuous and timely coverage and assessments of important events and news ...
International – OPEC+ 9.7mbd cut extended through July – IEA upgraded 2020 oil demand forecast to 91.7mbd Russia – Oil producers posted weak 1Q20 IFRS – EBITDA falls almost 2x q/q – Novatek reported 1Q20 IFRS – EBITDA -33% q/q, as expected; FCF positive – Gazprom published 4Q19 IFRS – Negative FCF, EBITDA flat q/q – Surgutneftegas reported 2H19 IFRS – P&L in line, net cash exceeds c$50bn – Transneft – 2019 DPS may be paid in installments – Lukoil¬ BoD recommends 2H19 ...
After a fast and furious rally from recent lows, we now see limited upside in Russian Oil & Gas and downgrade our remaining Buys – Rosneft, Gazprom, GazpromNeft – to Holds; other O&Gs unchanged. – Oil price to stay low amid huge inventories, spare production capacity – Structural changes in oil demand possible, unclear M-T outlook – Gas market to balance sooner, assume $200/mcm in 2022, $250 in ‘24e – Raised 2020e Brent 2% to $39/bbl ($51/$32/$35/$40/ bbl – 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q) – ...
We confirm our BUY recommendation for the stock, as we believe that Novatek is well prepared for the current market environment of low natural gas and crude oil prices since the company has a net cash position and one of the lowest lifting costs in the industry. We expect that with the cut in oil output under the new OPEC+ deal, Novateks EBITDA in 2020e-22e will be driven mainly by sustainable domestic gas sales as well as an increase in gas condensate production, propped up by the launch of the...
Reopenings, c$31 Brent v COVID threat, Fed-speak Ahead: Too soon to ‘count chickens’. Ongoing measured reopenings of various economies worldwide have injected a modicum of optimism into the growth and demand outlook, bolstering the risk trade and Brent, also buoyed by scaled back US and OPEC+ production. Still, while economic reopenings and rising Brent offer relief, prudence warns it is too soon to ‘count chickens’. Indeed, COVID-19 remains a threat to recent reopenings / global growt...
COVID-19 treatment hopes buoy demand recovery speculation Ahead: Bulls charge into May Days. In one fell swoop, beleaguered sentiment has been given an injection of adrenaline and viable hope, which will govern sentiment … at least today. US markets yesterday climbed and global bourses today are either trading higher (Asia) or are set to open on an uptick (Europe); Russia, in particular, is no exception. The catalyst – US announcement that trials of the antiviral drug, remdesivir, have bee...
COVID-19 treatment hopes buoy demand recovery speculation Ahead: Bulls charge into May Days. In one fell swoop, beleaguered sentiment has been given an injection of adrenaline and viable hope, which will govern sentiment … at least today. US markets yesterday climbed and global bourses today are either trading higher (Asia) or are set to open on an uptick (Europe); Russia, in particular, is no exception. The catalyst – US announcement that trials of the antiviral drug, remdesivir, have bee...
Ahead: OPEC++ compliance key; 1Q20 IFRS to show weakness. Although the deal reached by OPEC+ and the G20 implies a cut of almost 19mmbd (best case), the lack of firm obligations from non-OPEC+ countries and the inability of CIS producers to lower output in less than a week pose a risk to actual oversupply in May – the key metric to watch amid issues with oil storage. How the production cut will be distributed among Russian companies is another unknown variable. However, some support may come f...
Central banks, fundamentals govern Week Ahead: Risk trade tested. Yet more countries are easing COVID-restrictions in order to kick start their flagging economies. However, for want of evidence as to the timing and degree to which demand will recover, risk appetite and risk assets will come under pressure. Brent shed 22% last week and is trading lower this morning. Perhaps offering some support, albeit little and S-T, China’s PBoC on Friday cut interest rates and injected $11.3bn into the ban...
We downgraded several names and cut our 12MF TPs by 5% to reflect the OPEC-related cut for Russian oil producers and fallout from COVID-19. We maintain our oil price projections. - We retain ‘20e/‘21e/’22e Urals forecast of $38/$55/$65 per bbl - Russia oil producers hit by supply-demand pressure o COVID-19 fallout – c25-30mmbd oil oversupply on reduced demand o Full demand recovery no earlier than in 12 months o Even after OPEC+ cut, extra oil inventories will be absorbed only...
Fed vs OPEC+, 6.6mn new US jobless Ahead: Little too late. Were it not for disappoints on oil and a harbinger of doom via the unemployed, moves by the US Fed and Congress would be clear, prevailing tailwinds. Indeed, the Fed announced a $2.3tn program geared to financing COVID-19 hit businesses and revenue-pinched governments to backstop the flagging US economy; Congress is expected to endorse another round of fiscal expansion (up to $500bn) in the next several weeks. Tailwinds are not to be. ...
OPEC+ talk ‘fake news’?; US jobs - 6.6mn; Russia lockdown Ahead: Angst, pure and simple. Yesterday’s OPEC+ enthusiasm is today’s uncertainty, with risk appetite further aggravated by extended lockdowns worldwide and threat of a looming ‘U-’ or ‘L‘-shaped recovery. After claiming to have brokered a Saudi-Russia deal to cut output, US President Trump failed to offer to reduce US production calling the veracity of his claim into question – Brent in turn has retreated from plus-$...
Fed vows unprecedented ‘unlimited’ stimulus, Brent up Ahead: Bounce – Modicum of irrational exuberance. What goes down, invariably, rises … sooner or later. In today’s case, sooner appears to be on the table due to life support measures and tapping into the dip. The former have been provided by the coordinated efforts/pledges of central banks, but the giver of life today features the Fed and Germany. The Fed, in an unprecedented move, vowed pledged “unlimited asset purchasesâ€, in...
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