Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
In a week packed with central bank meetings, sentiment has held up well into today's FOMC meeting and press conference. All in all, the JPM EMBIG Diversified spread has come down back to 351bp (from the wides of 371bp on 9 March). This has helped total returns, albeit they remain modestly negative in March (-0.3% MtD as of yesterday). On an individual level, performance has been relatively uniform for EM sovereigns, with the majority tightening in the 12-25bp range.
TMK (TRMK: RX; N/R) reported 2Q20 operational results. Total pipe shipments declined 8% q/q and 35% y/y in response to a major decrease of welded pipe sales at the Russian division as well as the sale of the North American asset at the beginning of 2020. We note a 6% q/q pick-up in seamless pipe sales, which is a positive surprise. TMK reports 8% higher q/q shipments of seamless OCTG pipe at the Russian division and growth in shipments of seamless industrial pipe at both the Russian and Euro...
PAO TMK GDR (RU), a company active in the Steel industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 4 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, moderately risky market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date July 3, 2020, the closing price was USD 3.29 and its potential was estimated a...
US-China risk, COVID hopes/uncertainty Week Ahead: Volatile, in a word. Trade is again likely to reflect some optimism over a potential vaccine for COVID-19 and a kick-start to global growth as economies increasingly re-open for business. And Brent is ticking higher, above $35/bbl – a function of growth hopes and drawdown in crude stockpiles. However, sentiment and upside will likely be capped on US-China jousting and lingering COVID uncertainty. The US threatened to impose sanctions on China...
US-China tango, Beijing omission dents Brent Ahead: Playing momentum – Only game in town. Just as US-China relations appeared reaching boiling point, Beijing turned down the heat and offered some relief to markets by pledging to implement ‘Phase 1’ of the recent trade deal. Still, not out of the ‘Asian’ woods – US-China geopolitical risk is rising as Beijing presses to pass a new national security law that could rein in Hong Kong. And Brent has trimmed after China during the Nationa...
US-China tango, Beijing omission dents Brent Ahead: Playing momentum – Only game in town. Just as US-China relations appeared reaching boiling point, Beijing turned down the heat and offered some relief to markets by pledging to implement ‘Phase 1’ of the recent trade deal. Still, not out of the ‘Asian’ woods – US-China geopolitical risk is rising as Beijing presses to pass a new national security law that could rein in Hong Kong. And Brent has trimmed after China during the Nationa...
Vaccine hope, growth optimism … c$35 Brent Ahead: Riding higher, for now. The risk trade appears to have yet more upside, bolstered by yesterday’s headlines touting a potential COVID-19 vaccine by biotech firm Moderna Therapeutics. The gradual re-openings by virus-hit countries have also stirred optimism that the global economic trough may have been reached, bolstering growth optimism. The outlook for Brent, no surprise, became exponentially brighter. Still, the vaccine and reopening experi...
King Brent, Captain COVID v Fundamentals Ahead: Allegiance shifts. The price of oil is the visible King, the Captain of that King, however, is the less visible trajectory of COVID-19 and consequent impact on the global economy. Both were operative yesterday, driving markets higher with oil seen as an indicator of economic health, and lower headcounts on new COVID infections and deaths embraced as though the plague is easing. Heading into the weekend after a two-day bounce, allegiance of the pl...
COVID-19 + WTI expiry jolts Oil; Kim Jung Un risk Ahead: Pricing in COVID fallout. Were today just another normal ‘abnormal’ session (COVID-19 facts vs fictions), the dip of yesterday would clear the field of play for yet another buying opportunity for players with a higher degree of risk tolerance – need be smart, quick and tough to excel, perhaps being a mite lucky too. That is not to be. Markets, instead, will price in COVID-triggered demand destruction, which crystalized with the expi...
We Upgrade TMK’s 12MF TP to Rb61/share, in line with the price announced in the buyback yesterday, which will cover all the free-float, lead to an LSE de-listing and make the company less public. We recommend tendering all shares. - Rb61/share offer price is 31% premium to Tuesday’s close and 6.5% now - TMK, post-buyback, will de-list from LSE o Low valuations, sanctions and IPSCO sale led to decisions - Buyback covers 99.4% of free-float, including local shares - TMK will spend up to Â...
OPEC+ bets, Virus hopes … US jobs in focus Ahead: Waxing hopeful. A carry over of some optimism vis-à -vis the less dire projection of COVIS-19 in the US is likely again to be operative, at least in early trade. Also to the upside, the Bulls appear to have the upper hand, betting that OPEC+ will indeed reach an accord and cut output – even if the US does not participate. But, if the US did step into the ring, that would be so much more fodder for the Bulls, sending Brent and the Russia-tra...
OPEC+ bets, Virus hopes … US jobs in focus Ahead: Waxing hopeful. A carry over of some optimism vis-à -vis the less dire projection of COVIS-19 in the US is likely again to be operative, at least in early trade. Also to the upside, the Bulls appear to have the upper hand on the Saudi-Russia-US price war debate, betting that OPEC+ will indeed reach an accord and cut output – even if the US does not participate. But, if the US did step into the ring, that would be so much more fodder for the...
Oil price war + ‘C’-virus Ahead: No shortage of risk aversion – who will blink first? As if the ‘C’-virus were not enough to threaten global growth, add an oil price war to the ticket and the threat of recession rises. Indeed, a price war threatens all major economies, including the US, which thus far has been weathering the ‘C’-virus storm on the economic front. But this dynamic is at risk. In the M-T, it appears unlikely that Russia will backtrack and agree to OPEC’s proposal...
Fed acts, G7 talks, OPEC+ teases – Virus churns on Ahead: Expecting more; Removing some chips. The bounce yesterday seems more a reflection of some healthy bottom fhikedishing than a bona fide belief that the US Fed’s 50bp cut (unscheduled) and G7-central bank promises would be sufficient to inoculate and cure the ‘C’-virus plagued global economy. Meanwhile, the virus keeps on churning – China Services PMI (Caixin/Markit) in February plunged to 26.5 (from 51.8 in January), the worst m...
Recovery continues Ahead: Virus fears wane, but strong growth drivers absent. The miracle cure to the coronavirus, news of which likely supported yesterday’s gains, is still a long way off becoming a marketable drug. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy will continue to slow, infecting commodity prices and providing a drag on global financial markets. Against this, any so-called rally cannot be said to be founded on sustainable growth. Still, yesterday’s macro data in the West did positively surp...
Stumbling into February Ahead: Markets ailing, but opportunity to buy cheap may support. With the coronavirus’ macro effects still uncertain, investors are likely to remain risk averse this week, with any further disruptions in the global economy continuing to weigh. Still, with both SARS and MERS having caused similar sharp, but short lived, waves of selling pressure, some will see opportunity in the downturn – this week may let us know if the downtrend is just a pull back or a full-blown ...
Growth angst – Brent dips, Coronavirus spreads Ahead: Risk trade tested. The death toll from the coronavirus has risen above 170, with cases exceeding 7,700 and no sign yet that the virus is abating. Growth concerns have risen, underscored by US Fed Chair Powell who warned the virus could undercut US growth, while holding rates low and unchanged. In turn, Brent has dipped below $60/bbl on demand concerns, albeit downside has been limited by supply disruption risk on Middle East tension. Giv...
Brent recoups, China virus angst, Fed-speak Ahead: Playing momentum. As fears of coronavirus contagion ebb and flow, so too will the market. To the downside, the virus has now taken more than 130 lives, has continued to spread and more countries are placing bans on travel (to or from) / evacuating citizens from China. To the upside, none of the 106 deaths has been outside China and all but six have been in the central city of Wuhan, where the virus emerged, and which is now quarantined. Against...
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