Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We discussed in our latest Int'l Compass (January 9, 2025) how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and we were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. $116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&P 500. We also upgraded Germany to overweight in last w...
More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity? Market dynamics remain largely bearish and unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on S&P 500, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ, all broken on Dec. 15) are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows. Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to i...
Stick With Energy and Financials Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus. S&P 500. The S&P 500 held above short-term support at the 200-day MA (currently 4446); as long as this level holds we view it as a bullish sign for the SPX and broad market, as it would mean the January breakdown below th...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Narrow-moat Santander reported attributable profit of EUR 1.4 billion for second-quarter 2019. This however includes a net non-recurring restructuring charge of EUR 700 million, underlying profit, which excludes the restructuring charge, of EUR 2.1 billion and is 5% stronger than the corresponding figure reported for second-quarter 2018. Solid revenue growth of 3% year on year was the driving force behind the results. Dollar and Mexican peso weakness offset Brazilian real strength; thus currency...
Narrow-moat Santander reported attributable profit of EUR 1.4 billion for second-quarter 2019. This however includes a net non-recurring restructuring charge of EUR 700 million, underlying profit, which excludes the restructuring charge, of EUR 2.1 billion and is 5% stronger than the corresponding figure reported for second-quarter 2018. Solid revenue growth of 3% year on year was the driving force behind the results. Dollar and Mexican peso weakness offset Brazilian real strength; thus currency...
The U.S. Federal Reserve released the 2019 results from the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests, or DFAST, that serve to inform regulators, financial markets, and the general public how institutions' capital would withstand a hypothetical set of adverse economic conditions. All 18 of the banks subject to the stress tests this year performed adequately on the most commonly watched measure, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio. Results were better than last year, with lower average loss rates, better av...
The U.S. Federal Reserve released the 2019 results from the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests, or DFAST, that serve to inform regulators, financial markets, and the general public how institutions' capital would withstand a hypothetical set of adverse economic conditions. All 18 of the banks subject to the stress tests this year performed adequately on the most commonly watched measure, the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio. Results were better than last year, with lower average loss rates, better av...
We do not believe the takeover of troubled Spanish rival Banco Popular materially changes the investment case for Santander. The EUR 7 billion capital injection that Banco Popular required is effectively the purchase price--this is less than 3% of Santander’s market value. Subsequently, Santander significantly increased provisions against the toxic portion of Popular’s book and then sold off 51% of the toxic assets to fund manager Blackstone.Globally, Santander is one of the few banks that h...
Santander reported attributable profit of EUR 1.8 billion for the first quarter of 2019, which is 10% below its 2018 first-quarter profit. The first-quarter run rate is below our full-year expectations of 7% growth, but the year-ago quarter presented a relatively challenging base; the second quarter will face a softer base. We maintain our narrow moat rating and EUR 5 fair value estimate. Santander's Brazilian business, which contributes 29% to group attributable profits, reported a solid 14% in...
Santander reported attributable profit of EUR 1.8 billion for the first quarter of 2019, which is 10% below its 2018 first-quarter profit. The first-quarter run rate is below our full-year expectations of 7% growth, but the year-ago quarter presented a relatively challenging base; the second quarter will face a softer base. We maintain our narrow moat rating and EUR 5 fair value estimate. Santander's Brazilian business, which contributes 29% to group attributable profits, reported a solid 14% i...
Santander reported attributable profit of EUR 1.8 billion for the first quarter of 2019, which is 10% below its 2018 first-quarter profit. The first-quarter run rate is below our full-year expectations of 7% growth, but the year-ago quarter presented a relatively challenging base; the second quarter will face a softer base. We maintain our narrow moat rating and EUR 5 fair value estimate. Santander's Brazilian business, which contributes 29% to group attributable profits, reported a solid 14% in...
We do not believe the takeover of troubled Spanish rival Banco Popular materially changes the investment case for Santander. The EUR 7 billion capital injection that Banco Popular required is effectively the purchase price--this is less than 3% of Santander’s market value. Subsequently, Santander significantly increased provisions against the toxic portion of Popular’s book and then sold off 51% of the toxic assets to fund manager Blackstone.Globally, Santander is one of the few banks that h...
Narrow-moat Santander reported underlying attributable profit of EUR 8.1 billion for fiscal 2018, which was 7% ahead of 2017 results. If we strip out the impact of currency profit, the increase was 17%. This was right in line with our expectations (EUR 8.1 billion) and 4% ahead of consensus (EUR 7.8 billion). Surprisingly, the market did not seem to like the results, with Santander trading 4% lower on the day. Santander generates around 60% of its pretax profits from Brazil, Mexico, and the Unit...
Narrow-moat Santander reported underlying attributable profit of EUR 8.1 billion for fiscal 2018, which was 7% ahead of 2017 results. If we strip out the impact of currency profit, the increase was 17%. This was right in line with our expectations (EUR 8.1 billion) and 4% ahead of consensus (EUR 7.8 billion). Surprisingly, the market did not seem to like the results, with Santander trading 4% lower on the day. Santander generates around 60% of its pretax profits from Brazil, Mexico, and the Unit...
Narrow-moat Santander reported underlying attributable profit of EUR 8.1 billion for fiscal 2018, which was 7% ahead of 2017 results. If we strip out the impact of currency profit, the increase was 17%. This was right in line with our expectations (EUR 8.1 billion) and 4% ahead of consensus (EUR 7.8 billion). Surprisingly, the market did not seem to like the results, with Santander trading 4% lower on the day. Santander generates around 60% of its pretax profits from Brazil, Mexico, and the Unit...
Narrow-moat Santander reported solid pretax profits of EUR 3.8 billion for the third quarter of 2018. This is 4% higher than the corresponding period in 2017, if we adjust for currency weakness, particularly from Brazilian real profits before taxes increased by 17% on a constant currency basis. This result is in line with our expectations for the full 2018 fiscal year. We maintain our EUR 5.30 fair value estimate and narrow-moat rating. Banco Santander Brasil (Santander holds 90% of its shares ...
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