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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

ETF Pathfinder: Expecting More Upside Ahead; Upgrading Cap-Weighted Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) to Overweight; Downgrading Health Care (XLV) to Underweight

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Defensive Sectors Improving; Small-Caps Weakening We are beginning to get some signals which suggest the market is entering a more mixed environment. These signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, the weight of the evidence remains positive and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. · S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 remains ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Market Dynamics Improving; Downgrading Utilities Market dynamics and price action across the major indexes and all Sectors has been positive since early November -- and they have only improved recently. As a result, we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Below we highlight recent improvements. · Market Dynamics Improving: Commodities, 10-Year Treasury Yield. Broad commodities (DJP) are breaking above the 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull mar...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communication Services We remain bullish following breakouts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from their bullish falling wedge patterns. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has also broken above key $160 resistance. Additionally, market dynamics remain largely positive and are conducive to an ongoing bull market. Buy dips. · Key Levels. Short-term support levels to watch include $342.50 & $331 on the S&P 500 (SPY) and $283 & $273 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); as long as the...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

S&P 500 Consolidating, Still In “Wait-And-See” Phase The S&P 500 is moving in a sideways range while the market digests the implications of states' re-opening. Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. A break below support would confirm this as a distribution phase, while a break above resistance would confirm this period as being a digestion phase. · Key Levels...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still se...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect” for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in ...

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