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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the Decembe...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bear Market Rally Underway Key supports including the 200-week MA on the S&P 500 and $163 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) have held strong, and the S&P 500, IWM, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have all reversed topside their 2-month downtrends. As discussed in our previous ETF Pathfinder (Oct. 17), this is precisely what we needed to see in order to confirm that a bear market rally is underway. Longer-term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrades: Industrials, Energy, Small-Caps, Int'l Equities Market dynamics remain positive and we believe the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below are several observations that help lead us to our bullish outlook. · Small-Caps Leading The Way. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out to all-time highs and RS shows a major bullish reversal -- overweight small-caps. We view this as an important risk-on signal and is exactly what we would expect to see in a broad-based bull...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Cyclicals at a critical juncture Our general outlook remains positive and unchanged on U.S. and foreign equities, however there are a number of concerns that still exist -- particularly as it relates to some key cyclical areas of the market. If the concerns highlighted below are eventually alleviated, we believe a more bullish outlook would be warranted. • Concern #1: Several cyclical areas of the market remain below resistance, including Financials (both in the U.S. and Europe - XLF, EUFN),...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads a...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...

USO UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWU SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
XOP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
IGV BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWS SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
XSW SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KRE. VANECK VECTORS OIL REFINERS ETF
CRAK INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACKING FUND
DBC INVESCO DB OIL FUND
DBO ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
EWH ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
IEO ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EFNL ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWJ SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
XRT MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Energy and Small-caps • Energy and small-caps breaking out. We are upgrading both to overweight. Continued strength in oil prices has led the XLE to breakout topside resistance... see below and page 6. Also breaking out to new highs is the Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM)... see below and page 3. • Big picture trends: Interest rates, the USD, and commodities. The 10-year Treasury yield has continued to climb, moving as high as 3.115% last week to levels not seen since 2011. Wit...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Industrials • Utilities upgrade, Industrials downgrade. Utilities' price and relative strength trends have been hitting higher lows and higher highs since the market bottomed in February, justifying an upgrade to market weight... see below and page 7. As for Industrials, the XLI's price and relative strength trends have continued to deteriorate, prompting us to downgrade the sector to market weight... see below and page 8. • Big picture trends: Commodities ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

U.S. Dollar, broad commodities, and interest rates on the rise • Big picture trends: The USD, commodities, and interest rates. The USD (UUP) has broken topside its downtrend - a bullish development... see below. In a break from the traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities (DBC), the latter remains on bullish footing, and oil prices (DBO, USO, BNO) continue to lead the advance - remain overweight. Also on the rise is the 10-year Treasury yield, which is testing 3.00%...

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