reports
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +30%) H1 26 - Multiple re-rating in play
Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.
- James Ratzer
Tele Columbus (Overweight) Q2 2025: Reiteration of guidance a positiv...
Tele Columbus has reported a reassuring set of Q2 results, with broadband subscriber trends recovering and the full-year guidance largely re-confirmed – after the “temporary” withdrawal after the Q1 results caused unneeded stress.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +40%) Q1 26: Clearer evidence of value over volu...
Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
TeleColumbus (Overweight) Updated model and outlook post Q1 results
TeleColumbus reported Q1 results last night – and for our detailed review of the quarter, please see our note HERE.Now, following the management call, we publish an updated model to reflect the comments around the more competitive environment in the market. In this note, we run through our changes to estimates, liquidity and valuation.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- James Ratzer
GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?
Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.
- James Ratzer
TeleColumbus Q2 24: Growth drivers on track, but at a slightly higher...
2024 is very much a transition year for TeleColumbus in their TV base, but importantly the core Internet franchise growth remains very strong – and well ahead of Vodafone’s growth rates. This, alongside developments on NetCo/ OpCo we think can be further upside for the bonds, but in the near-term, the cost of managing this transition in 2024 will be slightly more expensive than initially assumed.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
German spectrum auction Evidence of pragmatic telecoms regulation
BNetzA’s latest proposal for the German spectrum auction might well now be close to the final outcome, and delays the uncertainty of an auction and potential large cash outflows until 2030 for all German operators. This seems a further example of pragmatic regulation in the European telecoms sector.
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms High Yield review Setting out our key preferences
We published our Global High Yield Quarterly this week – HERE. For a European perspective, we provide a summary of our thoughts and ideas on the European HY issuers in this piece, which takes excerpts from the Global HYQ and adds to it, including asset cover and a summary of our most preferred and least preferred names.
- James Ratzer
TELECOLUMBUS: Improving Internet adds could offer double upside for cr...
We apologise for sending this out over the weekend, but following yesterday's results and call, we wanted to fully update our model before publishing. In this note, we run through why TeleColumbus’s strong Q4 Internet net adds figures could be doubly good news for creditors, and we publish our updated forecasts, with an updated valuation showing different scenarios for creditors. Their comments on TV and Internet adds are also highly relevant for Vodafone investors.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
TeleColumbus New refinancing plan: Kicking the can down the road to s...
Morgan Stanley (but not United Internet) is coming to the (temporary) rescue with a €300m equity injection. However, this doesn’t look to be enough to us, and using our top-line/ EBITDA forecasts, but the company’s new capex forecasts, they will still run out of money in 2025.
- James Ratzer
Tele Columbus Q2 2023: Still no news on refinancing plans
Tele Columbus reported Q2 results this morning and held a call with analysts. The company continues to lose cable TV subscriber to the new bulk-contract restrictions, but still expects migration rates in the range of 50-60%. Whilst there was no news on the refinancing, the company is about to start talks with lenders and a small (€15m) shareholder loan from Morgan Stanley suggests that the main equity holders are still prepared to contribute additional capital.
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms High Yield Seven new names added: ATCF, Talk, Salt...
As part of our increasing coverage of the High Yield universe, we include new estimates and coverage for seven new names: Digi, Nuuday, Masmovil, Rakuten, Salt, TalkTalk, and Tele Columbus, taking total coverage to 18. As a result, we are now able to benchmark each company against each other, in terms of growth, risk, and asset cover.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.