Downgrading Industrials and Materials to Underweight We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as uptrends remain intact; the formation of new uptrends has been our expectation since late-April (4/30/24 Compass). Near-term we continue to expect to see support at the upside gaps from June 12 and also the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (5375-5408) and QQQ ($467-472). These are strong support levels. Longer-term, we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and the QQQ is above...
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...
Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...
Upgrading Energy & Downgrading Industrials The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips. · Market Dynamics Remain Bullish. Small-caps (IWM) are hitting new price highs and are outperforming relative to large-caps (SPY). The US dollar (DXY) is below 92. Defensive Sectors (Staples, Utilities, Real Estate) are underperforming. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 0.97%-1.00% support. EM eq...
Market Dynamics Improving; Downgrading Utilities Market dynamics and price action across the major indexes and all Sectors has been positive since early November -- and they have only improved recently. As a result, we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Below we highlight recent improvements. · Market Dynamics Improving: Commodities, 10-Year Treasury Yield. Broad commodities (DJP) are breaking above the 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull mar...
S&P 500 Testing Support Amid Uncertainties Short-term support levels have been violated on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 due to uncertainties surrounding rising COVID-19 cases/potential stay-at-home orders, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding new stimulus and the election outcome. While we remain constructive over the intermediate-term, short-term breakdowns have shifted our near-term outlook to a more neutral stance. · Key S&P 500 Levels. We believe caution is warranted fo...
S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
Bulls Still In Control Supported by several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish and believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · Zero Breakdowns. Major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Small- and mid-caps) remain in uptrends and not one S&P 500 Sector is breaking down. The absence of breakdowns is bullish. · Breadth Remains Healthy. Breadth indicators including advance/decline (A/D) lines and the percentage of stocks above their 200-day MAs continue...
Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...
The major averages (S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq) are showing signs of stalling out, with all breaking below uptrends that began at the lows of March. While we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves, this could very well be the beginning of the meaningful pullback that we have been concerned about. Price action today and in the coming week will help offer major clues as to whether this is yet another buying opportunity or a near-term top. We believe this is more likely to be the latter and wo...
Despite Concerns, Tape Remains Bullish In our 4/6/20 ETF Pathfinder we highlighted key S&P 500 pivot levels which included support at 2447-2455 and resistance at 2538 & also the 2575-2642 zone. We noted eventual breakouts or breakdowns above or below these levels would tell us where equities were likely headed next. The S&P 500 broke above these resistance levels on April 6 meaning the bulls were in control and equities were headed higher -- which is where we continue to be today. Despite the bu...
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...
Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...
Copper Miners are Bottoming -- Add Exposure The weight of the evidence continues to point to global equities beginning a new leg higher as the global economy shows signs of troughing. Copper prices are also showing signs of bottoming and should continue to benefit from an improving global economy. Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels. • EM Equities, Global Interest Rates, Copper, Copper/Gold Ratio Bottoming. These are just a...
Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...
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