In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
With it likely that Chugai will come in ahead of its FY24 full year revenue guidance, analyst Nia Dokova sees this as a potential catalyst for the stock. The recent -15% decline from its 28 Oct high provides an opportunity to accumulate shares of one of the few pharma plays in Japan with no patent cliff issues.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just awarded an improved star rating to CHUGAI PHARM. (JP), active in the Pharmaceuticals industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title receives an improved star rating and now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. With regard to its market behaviour, it remains unchanged and can be qualified as moderately risky. theScreener considers that these elements allow slightly upgrading its rating to Neutral. As of the analysis date March 18, 2022, th...
Although the Japanese economy, politics and stock market seem to be where they were this time last year, there is a seismic shift going on in the way the Japanese stock market behaves that could make investing in Japan in 2022 quite different to previous years. We look at how and why this shift has taken place and what it means for investing in Japan in the coming year.
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Pelham Smithers presents his strategy for Q3 2021 and the changes to PSA's stock Focus List Table of Contents Overview 3 Background 4 Valuations & Value 5 The Case for “Muddle Through” 6 Consumer Spending 7 The Labour Market 7 The Currency and the Carry Trade 8 The BoJ and Policy 9 Japan’s Stuttering Economy 10 Stock Performance and Earnings Expectations 12 Catalysts: Digital Transformation, Semiconductors, Price Hikes ...
After a good run that has seen Chugai deliver 30%+ YoY growth in each of its last seven quarters, earnings growth stalled in the March quarter (FY21 Q1), and the company reported its first YoY decline in OP since 2Q FY17. Furthermore, as Hemlibra revenue shift from being milestone based to sales based, CoGS are set to rise. This report looks at whether the recent sell-off in the stock offers an entry point for investors, or simply evidence that this great growth story is over.
Int'l Equity Strategy In using technical analysis, we let the market be our guide. That is, we analyze what is true in the market, utilizing the vast array of tools in our technical analysis toolbox which we then formulate into our outlook using a weight of the evidence approach. In a world where there are no shortages of things to worry about (trade wars, central banks, Trump impeachment, negative interest rates, low global growth, Brexit, Manufacturing weakness, elections, Hong Kong protests,...
EAFE > EM; Add exposure to Japan Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int'l: • Japan, Switzerland, Australia, Canada. Major Japanese indexes have been underperforming for nearly two years but are making bullish price and RS inflections and exhibit early signs of bottoming. Switzer...
Narrow-moat Chugai Pharmaceutical announced Q1 earnings that showed strong operating margins of 30%, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year, or 200 basis points using Chugai’s core earnings. This was driven by increasing sales contribution from higher-margin in-house drugs, which improved gross margins. This is better than our expectations, and we believe it will be sustainable. As a result, we revised our fair value to JPY 6,500 per share from JPY 6,000 per share. Revenue this quarte...
Narrow-moat Chugai Pharmaceutical announced Q1 earnings that showed strong operating margins of 30%, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year, or 200 basis points using Chugai’s core earnings. This was driven by increasing sales contribution from higher-margin in-house drugs, which improved gross margins. This is better than our expectations, and we believe it will be sustainable. As a result, we revised our fair value to JPY 6,500 per share from JPY 6,000 per share. Revenue this quarte...
Narrow-moat Chugai Pharmaceutical announced Q1 earnings that showed strong operating margins of 30%, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year, or 200 basis points using Chugai’s core earnings. This was driven by increasing sales contribution from higher-margin in-house drugs, which improved gross margins. This is better than our expectations, and we believe it will be sustainable. As a result, we revised our fair value to JPY 6,500 per share from JPY 6,000 per share. Revenue this quarter...
Chugai Pharmaceutical announced 2018 earnings that were in line with our expectations. We are transferring coverage to a new analyst and raising our fair value estimate to JPY 6,000 per share from 4,820. This is primarily due to an update to Morningstar’s cost of equity assumption for Japanese stocks. We maintain our narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The earnings metrics were broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was 8.5% versus our estimate of 7.6%, primarily due to ...
Chugai Pharmaceutical announced 2018 earnings that were in line with our expectations. We are transferring coverage to a new analyst and raising our fair value estimate to JPY 6,000 per share from 4,820. This is primarily due to an update to Morningstar’s cost of equity assumption for Japanese stocks. We maintain our narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The earnings metrics were broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was 8.5% versus our estimate of 7.6%, primarily due to ...
Chugai Pharmaceutical announced 2018 earnings that were in line with our expectations. We are transferring coverage to a new analyst and raising our fair value estimate to JPY 6,000 per share from 4,820. This is primarily due to an update to Morningstar’s cost of equity assumption for Japanese stocks. We maintain our narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The earnings metrics were broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was 8.5% versus our estimate of 7.6%, primarily due to ...
Chugai Pharmaceutical announced 2018 earnings that were in line with our expectations. We are transferring coverage to a new analyst and raising our fair value estimate to JPY 6,000 per share from 4,820. This is primarily due to an update to Morningstar’s cost of equity assumption for Japanese stocks. We maintain our narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The earnings metrics were broadly in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was 8.5% versus our estimate of 7.6%, primarily due to h...
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