The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of PETKIM PETROKIMYA (TR), active in the Commodity Chemicals industry. The title has lost a star(s) at the fundamental level and now shows 2 out of 4 stars. Its exposure to market risk remains nonetheless the same and can be still described as defensive. theScreener slightly downgrades the general evaluation to Slightly Positive for the title on account of the lost star(s). As of the analysis date December...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
• Ethylene-Naphtha spread contracted by 1% WoW to USD721.5/ton on June 4th, mainly due to 2% WoW increase in Naphta prices. • So far in 2Q21, the spread averaged at USD687.4/ton, compared to USD622/ton in 1Q21 and USD255/ton in 2Q20. • Since the ethylene-naphtha spread is the key determinant for PETKM’s operational profitability, we consider the existing level of the spread as well as 2Q average will be positive for PETKM’s operational profitability in 2Q21E.
A significant change in investor perception of Turkish sovereign risk has led to a decent rally, with 100-150bp average spread tightening over the last couple of weeks. This rally coincided with the end of the Turkish corporate reporting season which we followed closely. This report summarises our views on Turkish corporates and on Turkish corporate bond pricing.
With this report, we incorporate higher polymer pricing but weaker aromatics pricing due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Together with our raised petrochemical pricing and weaker naphtha prices, we also factor in our updated macro forecasts, which new lower risk free rate assumption of 14% and weaker TRY against USD forecasts. As a result, we raise our 12M SOTP-based TP by 15% to TRY4.58. Even though we expect cash generation to remain healthy in the near term, we believe that the upside potential is ...
Petkim posted net income of TRY236m in 3Q19, above our estimate of TRY150m and RT consensus of TRY174m. The deviation at the bottom-line came from deferred tax gain of TRY4m (vs. BNPPe tax expense forecast: TRY42m) and higher profitability. Operationally, 3Q19 EBITDA of TRY394m came 15% higher than our estimate of TRY340m and 8% above the consensus of TRY365m. The company posted a moderate operational performance backed by weaker naphtha crack margins (especially polymer products) and inventory ...
Petkim’s 2Q19 net income of TRY319m was slightly lower than our estimate of TRY343m but in line with RT consensus of TRY317m. The deviation at the bottom-line came from higher-than-expected expenses related to the one-off non-operating item. Operationally, 2Q19 EBITDA of TRY536m came in line with our estimate of TRY541m and RT consensus of TRY519m. As we expected, the company posted a solid recovery backed by inventory gains in the midst of TRY depreciation and better naphtha crack margin on low...
We expect the positive momentum to continue: Global growth fears, which have pushed down global bond yields, and the recent shift to a more dovish stance by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have led to a significant recovery in global equity indices since mid-May. This rising tide in the global markets has also lifted the Turkish equity market to a higher level. Despite the occasional volatility and challenges in the upcoming months, we expect this positive momentum in Tur...
We reiterate our HOLD call for Petkim but lower our 12M TP by 2% to TRY5.54/share on lower than expected profitability in 4Q18. After a dismal quarter in 4Q18 due to production and inventory losses, we believe that turnaround in 1Q19 would be also modest due to lack of supportive aromatics pricing and moderate polymer prices. Petkim’s petrochemical operations trades at 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 12.5x P/E multiples to its peers on our 2019E estimates, implying a respective premium of 12% and 4%. Petkim...
Petkim reported a net loss of TL44mn (vs. TL365mn net profit in 4Q17) in 4Q18, worse than market consensus of TL77mn net profit and our expectation of TL55mn net profit. The company posted an EBITDA of TL75mn (-84% YoY) in 4Q18, lower than market consensus of TL185mn and our expectation of TL173mn. Main deviation from our expectations was a lower than expected gross profit possibly due to inventory loss and weaker petrochemical margins. On a cumulative basis, net profit and EBITDA reached TL872...
Petkim posted net income of TRY413m in 3Q18, broadly in-line with our estimate of TRY451m but much higher than RT concensus estimate of TRY376m. Despite higher-than-expected effective tax rate (28% in 3Q18 vs. our estimate of 22%) and worse-than-expected financial expenses, the bottom-line was boosted by strong operating profitability. Accordingly, 3Q18 EBITDA of TRY744m came 26% higher than our estimate of TRY590m and 38% above RT consensus of TRY539m, backed by stronger-than-expected aromatic...
Petkim reported net income of TRY371m in 2Q18, overshooting our estimate of TRY234m and Research Turkey estimate of TRY212m. The deviation at the bottom-line was due to higher than expected operating profitability and lower effective tax rate (10% in 2Q18 vs. our estimate 22%). Operationally, 2Q18 EBITDA of TRY441m came 35% higher than our estimate of TRY326m and 40% above the consensus of TRY378m, backed by stronger than expected aromatics pricing, inventory gain and TRY depreciation. We maint...
We downgrade Petkim to HOLD (from Buy) and lower our 12M TP by 20% to TRY7.32/share on weaker near term earnings momentum as naphtha prices rose faster than end-product prices. As such, we are cutting estimates by 14-36% over 2018-20E. Even though we still like its promising transformation story with visible cash generation capability in the longer term, we look for a better entry point. We also expect a maintenance shutdown in 2H18. Petkim released net income of TRY131m in 1Q18, lower than ou...
PETKM - LOWER: TL131mn NI in 1Q18 much lower than mkt cons of TL276mn while EBITDA of TL218mn in 1Q18 was lso lower than mkt's TL374mn. Main deviation from our expectations was significantly weak gross margin (1Q18: 15.4% vs. our expectation of 24.5%) due to higher naphtha costs. We expect the earnings announcement to have a negative impact on the stock.
HEADLINES: * BRD-GSG: 1Q18 results strongly above expectations POSITIVE * Erste Bank: 1Q18 net profit at EUR 33m, 4-6% beat vs consensus amid positive provision charges NEUTRAL * KOMB: 1Q18 - small beat on positive LLPs, but neutral due to pressured revenues; 2020E strategy POSITIVE * MOL 1Q18 results mildly below expectations NEUTRAL * Petkim: 1Q18 results - missed by a mile NEGATIVE * Yapi Kredi: 2020 Strategy - seeing is believing (especially on COR) NEUTRAL * Turkish a...
In our previous report, in November 2017, our base-case scenario was another leg up for the market in 1H18E, helped by upside for growth expectations and TRY stability supported by the CBRT, despite the significant volatility at the time. After a brief rally, during which the BIST100 peaked at nearly 20% above its November bottom, it seems we are back to where we started, with the market hit with another bout of currency and interest rate spikes. This time, we believe that the upside in equities...
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