A director at Gemadept Corp bought 200,000 shares at 0.000VND and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
We used Sum-of-the-parts valuation method (SOTP) to provide a target price of 63,400 VND, combined with a cash dividend of 2,000 VND. This is equivalent to an expected rate of return of 11%, based on the closing price on 24/07/2023. We recommend to ACCUMULATE.
Forecast for Q2-FY2023, revenues and NPATMI are respectively VND 965 million (+7% QoQ and -1% YoY) and VND 235 million (+16% QoQ and -18% YoY). Compared to the previous quarter, revenues improved based on the recovery in volume, the GPM will slightly decrease because of the depreciation of NDV phase 2, but NPATMI will grow by double digits as GML is expected to be profitable again. For 2023F, net revenue and NPATMI are respectively VND 3,781 billion (-3% YoY) and VND 2,396 billion (+148% YoY)...
In Q4/2022, revenue and NPATMI of GMD were VND 1,066 billion ( +8% QoQ, +3% YoY) and VND 189 billion (-23% QoQ, 0% YoY), respectively. In 2022, net revenue and NPATMI reached VND 3,916 billion (+22% YoY) and VND 995 billion (+65% YoY). For 2022, EPS was VND 3,302 (+65% YoY). GMD recorded a deposit worth 1,000 billion VND in Q4/2022 for divestment in Nam Hai Dinh Vu (NHDV) and expects to complete the deal in Q1/2023. The proceeds will be used for the purpose of investing in the expansion of tw...
GMD's main ports in Hai Phong and Cai Mep - Thi Vai areas maintain stable performance in the context that import and export growth is forecasted to be slow. The container throughput forecast for 2023F in Hai Phong and Gemalink (GML) is 1.2 million TEU (+4% YoY) and 1.4 million TEU (+13% YoY), respectively. In the long term, GMD has more room for growth thanks to the expansion of Nam Dinh Vu and GML. However, there will be many challenges ahead when the competition is getting fiercer in Hai Ph...
In 2Q2022, the company posted revenue/NPATMI of VND 978/288 bn (or USD 41/ 12 mn), +30%/+103% YoY. Despite a decline of 2% QoQ/-20% YoY in volume in that quarter (exl. Gemalink), the company’s gross profit margin broadens by 456 bps QoQ /211 bps YoY to 45% thanks to better cost management. In early 3Q2022, total throughput has reflected the cooldown of trade activities in Vietnam. In 8M2022, the Hai Phong area was the key driver +10% YoY while Vung Tau and HCM landscape only climbed by 1% YoY...
GMD posted 1Q2022 revenue/NPATMI of VND880bn (US$38mn)/ VND274bn (US$12mn), +28% yoy/+86% yoy. While 1Q2022 throughput volume of Northern terminals and Binh Duong Port in the South grew by 14% yoy and 20% yoy, respectively, April and May should see volume cool down before recovering from June following China reopening. The expansions of Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu construct a solid foundation for the long-term outlook. We raise our target price for GMD to VND65,700, offering an upside of 9% c...
GMD posted 1Q2022 revenue/NPATMI of VND 880 bn (USD 38 mn)/ VND 274 bn (USD 12 mn), +28% YoY/+86% YoY. While 1Q2022 throughput volume of Northern terminals and Binh Duong Port in the South grew by 14% YoY and 20% YoY, respectively, Apr and May should see volume cool down before recovering from June following China reopening. The expansions of Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu construct a solid foundation for the long-term outlook. We raise our GMD’s target price to VND 65,700, offering an up...
The Russia-Ukraine war and US and European sanctions on Russia have raised concerns about the risk of a global supply chain disruption, especially since Russia and Ukraine are two major exporting countries in terms of metal products, fertilisers, agricultural products and oil and gas. This has pushed prices of commodities, which have been on a significant rally during the two years of the pandemic, once again back to its peak. Speculation on commodity prices has led to a rapid and strong incr...
· In 4Q/2021, revenue reached VND 1,038 billion, +47% YoY, NPATMI reached VND 190 billion, +226% YoY. Thereby, for 2021, revenue/NPATMI reached VND 3,206 billion (+23% YoY)/605 billion (+63% YoY). Both were 20% higher than our forecasts thanks to solid growth in port operation, high profits from associates and costs tightening scheme. · Import-Export turnover recovery upon economies reopening, coupled with the competitive advantage of location and demand guaranteed by st...
The government's rigid approach to contain Covid-19 has crippled production activities, hampering trade performance of Vietnam for the most part of Q3 21. Furthermore, worldwide port congestion is disrupting shipping schedule and frequencies. While these issues will temporarily drag GMD’s throughput volume in Q3 21, the government’s move to reopen the economy, coupled with the continuing recovery of global trade and port traffic as vaccination against Covid-19 progresses worldwide, lead us to...
The Government’s rigid approach to contain Covid-19 has crippled production activities, hampering trade performance of Vietnam in most part of Q3-2021. Furthermore, worldwide port congestion is disrupting shipping schedule and frequencies. While these issues will temporarily drag GMD’s throughput volume in Q3-2021, the Government’s move to reopen the economy, coupled with the continuing recovery of global trade and port traffic as vaccination against COVID-19 progresses worldwide lead us to bel...
The outperformance of smaller market cap stocks compared with the returns on VN Index in July was generally in line with our expectations. As such, reducing the weight on our recommendations on some large cap stocks in steel and banking sectors, namely HPG, VCB, ACB, in the last month has helped lessen the impact of the market downturn among our coverage. Overall, 10 out of our 11 Buy recommendations have outperformed the VN Index in the last month. Robust Q2 21 earnings growth and the market...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
GMD plans to kick off the construction of the next phase at Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu terminals this year. We estimate that the Gemalink terminal has handled 70-80k TEUs since the official operation on 19 January (~5% designed capacity). Nam Dinh Vu Terminal in Hai Phong has successfully attracted new services in early 2021. Consequently, we expect GMD terminals in Hai Phong to post solid performance in 2021. We are reviewing our forecast and valuation for GMD, pending an update on the situati...
GMD reported unaudited Q2-FY20 financial results with total revenue of VND607bn, down by 9.2% from the last year’s figures while PBT declined by 41.0% yoy to VND141bn. Meanwhile, net profit was generally in line with our previous estimates (see table 1). With these results, GMD has completed 56% of full-year guidance for both revenue and PBT in its base-case scenario, while corresponding fulfillment rates of our FY 20 forecasts stood at 53% and 55%. The bright spot in the Q2 results lied in t....
The FY 20-21 outlook for GMD remains subdued as: 1) the pandemic and its prolonged impact will drag heavily on cargo volume throughput, 2) the rise in competition in Hai Phong will likely further squeeze port operations’ profit margins, 3) the loss of Gemalink will be the key factor to follow closely next year. Nevertheless, the stock is a play on Vietnam’s EX-IM growth in the long-term horizon thanks to its nationwide logistics infrastructure. Furthermore, we believe in the potential of th...
The near-term outlook of GMD has deteriorated from the Covid-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, we like the stock for its promising long-term potential from new terminals: the deep water port Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu Phase 2. The success of these ports will be the key earnings growth driver in the next few years as they will contribute a combined capacity of over 2mn TEU per annum, doubling the capacity of GMD’s current port system. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation on GMD with a SoTP-derive....
The near-term outlook of GMD has deteriorated given the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, we like the stock for its promising long-term potential from new terminals: the deep water port Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu Phase 2. The success of these ports will be the key earnings growth driver in the next few years as they will contribute a combined capacity of over 2 mn TEU per annum, doubling capacity of GMD’s current port system. We reiterate our ACCUMULATE recommendation on GMD with a SoTP-derived f...
GMD announced a 4.9% decline in Q1 FY 20 NPAT-MI to VND141bn, ahead of our forecast mainly on the back of a surge in gain from JVs, financial income and significantly lower minority interests. Although Q1 earnings have achieved 29% of our full-year forecast, we expect the negative impact of Covid-19 to be fully felt in Q2 FY 20 and linger throughout the year, compromising total container volume throughput. Hence, we cut our earnings forecast for FY 20 by 24%. We lower our target price to VND2...
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