MARKET COMMENT - RDX DOWN MORE THAN IN 1998, MSCI RUSSIA THE MOST SINCE 2008 AS MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS CLOSEDWhile Moscow stock trading remains closed, offshore and composite indexes dropped another 6-57%. The RDX offshore DR index has now fallen 91% since its October decade-long peak, a fall sharper than that of 1998 or 2008. The government announced plans to support the market with share purchases, while capital restrictions and supply shocks have also been in the news.STORIES> Government mull...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСегодня утром котировки Брент выросли до $111/барр., и, вероятно, поднимутся еще выше, хотя МЭА объявило, что страны ОЭСР скоординированно выведут на рынок 60 млн барр. нефти из своих стратегических резервов. После объявлений ВР и Equinor, сделанных ранее на этой неделе, еще несколько крупных международных нефтяных компаний сообщили о решении продать свой бизнес в России или выразили серьезную обеспокоенность сложившейся ситуацией.НОВОСТИ> Нехватка предложения начала сказыва...
MARKET COMMENT - NEW RUSSIA-US DIPLOMATIC MEETING EASES SOME MARKET CONCERNSThe RTS sank 4.9% to 1,450 yesterday, sharply underperforming peers after a series of concerning political headlines in the afternoon. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between the top Russian and US diplomats has helped ease the tensions, and RTS futures are up 1.8% early this morning. The global backdrop has also improved to mixed after a weak day for global stock markets.STORIES> EPFR: Russia sees bette...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НОВАЯ ЗАПЛАНИРОВАННАЯ ВСТРЕЧА ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ РОССИИ И США НЕСКОЛЬКО УСПОКОИЛА РЫНОКИндекс РТС вчера снизился на 4,9% до 1 450 пунктов, сильно отстав от других развивающихся рынков после ряда тревожных политических новостей. Однако сообщение о запланированной на следующую неделю встрече российских и американских дипломатов немного сгладило ситуацию, и сегодня утром фьючерсы на индекс РТС прибавили 1,8%. Ситуация на глобальных фондовых рынках также немного улучшилась. НОВОС...
The shares of Russian power-generating companies (gencos) dropped 12% in ruble terms in 2021, underperforming the broader market by 27 pp amid an acceleration in inflation and rise in interest rates in Russia, which dimmed the dividend outlooks and the increased capex risks. Given the depressed current share prices, most of the stocks offer attractive returns. We expect to see investors become a bit more interested in the sector during the dividend season in June-July, but we do not anticipate a...
MARKET COMMENT - CYCLICALS CHARGED AHEAD YESTERDAY, CONSOLIDATION SIGNALS TODAYMarkets tended to bounce back, with notably strong performances in cyclicals and US small-caps. The MSCI EM was flat, held back by a 0.4% drop in China. The MSCI DM gained 0.5%. Russia outperformed, the RTS climbing 1.3% to 1,867 with gas and financials among the leaders. While few global catalysts have emerged this morning, APAC markets are following domestic developments, and global and Russia indicators suggest a b...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA INDICATORS UP, GLOBAL STOCKS MIXED AMID DOLLAR STRENGTH, COMMODITY VOLATILITYMajor indexes saw slight moves yesterday, the MSCI ACWI ending flat. Russia mildly outperformed, the RTS gaining 0.5% to 1,641. Relevant commodities saw higher volatility, with temporary declines of more than 4% for both gold and Brent before benchmarks rebounded. Alrosa sales numbers, regional political headlines and US oil data are in focus today.STORIES> How higher real rates will affect the e...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
MARKET COMMENT - OPEC+ MEETING IN FOCUSGlobal markets were mixed yesterday amid light news flow. The OPEC+ meeting will be the key event today as pressure mounts on the cartel to increase production amid the decline in global stockpiles.STORIES> CBR could be mulling change to inflation target> Latest weekly data suggests inflation of 0.7% m-o-m in June> M&A the new growth driver for the biggest food retailers> Mosenergo sells its stake in OGK-2 to Gazprom Energoholding> RZhD expects to exceed 20...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ВНИМАНИЕ ИНВЕСТОРОВ ПРИКОВАНО К ЗАСЕДАНИЮ ОПЕК+ В отсутствие значимых новостей динамика мировых рынков вчера была неоднородной. Ключевым событием сегодня станет заседание ОПЕК+, поскольку усиливается давление на картель с целью увеличения добычи на фоне сокращения запасов углеводородов в хранилищах.НОВОСТИ> ЦБ РФ не исключает, что параметры таргетирования инфляции могут быть изменены> Потребительские цены в России в июне выросли на 0,7%> Новым фактором роста для крупнейши...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - СЕГОДНЯ УТРОМ РЫНКИ ДВИЖУТСЯ РАЗНОНАПРАВЛЕННОИндекс MSCI ACWI прибавил 1,5% за счет существенного роста на рынках Китая, США и в других странах. Россия была в числе отстающих: индекс РТС поднялся только на 0,1% до 1 549 пунктов. Сегодня утром ключевые индикаторы для российского и глобального рынков нейтральны. НОВОСТИ> Данные по российским инвесторам: рекордный приток в апреле> Восстановление нефтегазовых доходов оказывает поддержку российскому бюджету> Результаты Роснефт...
MARKET COMMENT - MIXED OUTLOOK THIS MORNING AFTER FRIDAY'S BARGAIN HUNTINGThe MSCI ACWI gained 1.5%, fueled by substantial gains in China, the US and elsewhere. Russia lagged, the RTS rising only 0.1% to 1,549. This morning's backdrop is neutral for key Russia and global indicators. STORIES> Russian investor statistics: Record inflows in April> Recovery of oil and gas revenues supporting budget> Rosneft 1Q21: Weak P&L, stronger than expected FCF> Rosneft 1Q21 conference call and presentation hig...
MARKET COMMENT - CONSTRUCTIVE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY US DROP, RUSSIA SANCTIONS HEADLINESThe RTS soared 2.2% yesterday, but futures are down 2.7% early this morning following headlines regarding potential US sanctions.STORIES> Media: US to announce new sanctions, possibly on sovereign debt> Russian weekly inflation slows to 0.1%> Gazprom confirms switch to 50% payout from this year> Severstal to report strong 1Q21 IFRS results> MMK 1Q21 trading update review and earnings preview> Read-through from...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ВЧЕРАШНИЙ ПОЗИТИВНЫЙ НАСТРОЙ ВЕЧЕРОМ ЗАВЕРШИЛСЯ ПАДЕНИЕМ АМЕРИКАНСКОГО РЫНКА; СЕГОДНЯ В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ - ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ РИСКИВ среду индекс РТС вырос на 2,2%, однако сегодня утром фьючерсы на этот индикатор просели на 2,7% - на них оказали давление сообщения о перспективах новых американских санкций. НОВОСТИ> Недельная инфляция в России замедлилась до 0,1%> Газпром подтвердил, что с 2021 года будет выплачивать в виде дивидендов 50% чистой прибыли> Обзор операционных пок...
The adoption of ESG principles has already significantly altered the investment landscape and is showing no signs of slowing down. For Russia, the rise of ESG globally has been the main catalyst for its development domestically. We expect that over the near term Russian companies will continue to expand their efforts in the ESG sphere in order to improve their attractiveness to investors and widen the investor base. In this report, we provide an overview of forthcoming changes in legislation per...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA INDICATORS UNDERPERFORMING WHILE DOMESTIC POLITICS IN FOCUSAfter the RTS (1,399) outperformed the MSCI EM by more than 1 pp yesterday, Russia indicators soured in the late evening. Domestic politics is in focus after protests last night against opposition figure Alexei Navalny's imprisonment.STORIES> BP numbers suggest $1.2 bln net income for Rosneft in 4Q20> Energy Ministry adds three Rosneft LNG projects to strategy> MMK posts strong 4Q20 financial results> Moscow Excha...
With interest rates in the economy continuing to fall, we believe that investors will look to stable businesses with robust dividends secured by cash generation ability. The utilities sector has a number of such stories. We think the lockdown has actually affected the sector less severely than this year's high water flows, which have driven spot electricity prices lower. And though a deterioration in the orderliness of payments could take a toll on the sector as well - which can only be properly...
Utilities are the Russian market's top performer YTD and, we argue, well positioned for when the risk-off clouds pass. Of course, the recent risk-off turn means a bout of profit taking is likely. In fact, utilities may temporarily sell off more sharply than others. However, any underperformance would not necessarily stem from specific coronavirus-related risks - the sector is certainly not on the front lines - but would rather be due to having posted such strong gains YTD. We believe the sector'...
Вчера в рамках "Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ð²ÐµÑтора" Газпром объÑвил, что уже в текущем году его дочерние предприÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð½ÑƒÑ‚ раÑпределÑть Ñреди акционеров 50% чиÑтой прибыли по МСФО - Ñтот коÑффициент будет применÑтьÑÑ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ начиÑлении дивидендов за 2019 год. Мы были наÑтроены менее оптимиÑтично, прÐ...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA ATOP EMS' RALLY, WHILE OIL, MSCI AND FED EVENTS ARE DUE TODAYThe RTS surged 2.4% to 1,540, Russia easily leading the MSCI EM's 1.1% gain. Gazprom and Sberbank corporate events were in the news. Today's agenda holds multiple relevant events for Russian and global oils, as well as the MSCI rebalancing overnight, remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his peers, and more. STORIES> Russian current account surplus reaches $9.5 bln in January> Macroeconomic impact of gover...
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