In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
As the earning season has concluded, investors are taking stock about the auto sector’s FY24 Q2 results and updated guidance numbers. Analyst Julie Boote reviews the key developments in the industry, and how these could affect automakers’ earnings in the second half of the fiscal year.
Given that the EV market is not a free market, led by demand and supply, but a distorted market, moved by political intervention in the form of subsidies (or lack of), making EV sales forecasts is very challenging indeed. This is a headache for analysts, but even more so for auto companies with a ten-year planning horizon. In this report, we outline the sales situation for different regions, as well as providing an outlook based on currently available information.
Suzuki delivered some strong FY24 Q1 results but is cautioning about deteriorating earnings for the rest of the year. While FY24 sales growth should remain in positive territory and pricing is still firm, analyst Julie Boote warns that the risk of Suzuki’s key Indian operations performing worse than expected is rising.
ASEAN has long been considered one of the global auto markets with the best growth prospects, but expectations have not been met. With China in trouble and ASEAN auto sales lacklustre, Japanese automakers need to review their positioning in Asia. Analyst Julie Boote provides a short-term outlook for the ASEAN auto market, and discusses Japanese assemblers’ options within this context.
While Japan’s automakers have upped their game in the EV space, they remain laggards on the global stage. With the EV markets now in trouble, analyst Julie Boote assesses whether or not the Japanese assemblers have been vindicated in their more cautious approach to electrification.
As electric vehicles are set to replace combustion engine cars over time, established automakers need to prove they can remain competitive in this new market. In this context, much attention has been given to battery technology, but the creation of an optimal EV auto platform is just as important. Here, the jury is still out, as we are in the early development days. Analyst Julie Boote discusses how the prefect EV platform should look like and where automakers are currently positioned.
This has been an impressive earning season for Japanese automakers, with FY23 Q1 net sales and OP of the seven listed companies all surging by double-digit rates. Analyst Julie Boote takes us through the factors behind the performance and highlights the positives and negatives to consider going forward.
It has been a mixed earning season for Japanese automakers, although most are predicting strong profit growth for FY23. Despite the positive outlook, the market’s reaction has been lukewarm, due to concerns over overoptimism for sales growth and rapidly rising expenses. Analyst Julie Boote explores what the most important share price drivers could be for the seven listed automakers for FY23.
The general evaluation of SUZUKI MOTOR (JP), a company active in the Automobiles industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date January 14, 2022, the closing price was JPY 4...
The auto industry has spent the last few years on redefining their powertrain strategies, as electrification has become the key focus of automakers and investors. However, these changes are nothing compared to the upcoming disruption from the emergence of the software-defined car. As the car’s digitalization expands from driving functions and infotainment to connectivity and autonomous drive, the software requirements are increasing exponentially. Against this backdrop, automakers’ decision on ...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Julie Boote has written her 2020 look ahead for Japan's auto assemblers. Intended to serve as a reference document throughout the year, the report discusses the global auto sales trends in 2019 and the outlook for 2020, with separate discussions on USA, Japan, Europe, China and RoW, providing an overview of assemblers' sales activities and their economic backdrop.
Breakout probability on the rise The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. • Emerging Markets. The MSCI EM index exhibits bullish price and RS reversals -- add exposure/market weight. This is a major positive for both EM and global equities as it is a characteristic consist...
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