A director at Hoa Phat Group Jsc sold 1,000,000 shares at 0.000VND and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
In 2Q2023, HPG recorded revenue of VND 29.5tn (USD 1.2bn, -21%YoY, +11%QoQ), with sales volume of 1.8 mn tons (-12%YoY, +13%QoQ). Construction steel volume is still at a low, while volume of Hot Roiled Coil (HRC) is the bright spot (~255,000 tons/month, which is 16% higher than the period 2021-2022), thanks to: 1/ HRC Vietnam has no import tax in ASEAN countries, 2/ Demand for HRC and downstream products (galvanized sheet, steel pipe) shows signs of recovery in ASEAN and European countries. T...
In spite of its ability as a leading firm to have the most realistic market outlook, HPG did not manage to avoid net losses in the two most negative quarters of the steel industry. We believe that recent business results not only reflect the impact of the world and domestic markets on HPG's production and sales activities, but also show the company’s flexibility and adaptability in terms of operating policies, namely purchasing and production. In the coming quarters, HPG will face certain challe...
· Steel production costs could drop significantly in Q4. · Selling prices started to regain, but slowly. · Q3 to be the trough of 2022 profit; construction steel to recover more quickly than flat steel. Q3 revenue and PAT could come at VND 33,821 bn (-12.5% YoY) and 3,325 bn (-78% YoY). · Dung Quat 2 update: Commencing on May 2022, the project is in the land clearance stage. Phase 1 will come into operation from mid-2024 and phase 2 from end-2024. · ...
· Impressive construction steel output growth in the context of high selling prices in 1Q2022. · Raw material prices for steel production have fluctuated strongly and could remain high for a while. · Gloomy global durable goods demand outlook will slow down HRC consumption in the next 12 months. Slow consumption of construction steel due to weak demand in the short term but long-term outlook remains positive. · For 2022, we expect revenue and NPAT to co...
Europe's steel prices have been rising fast with pressures from increasing energy prices and the potential disruption of steel supply from Russia and Ukraine. HRC prices in this area have increased by 35% from US$1,054/ton to US$1,419/ton in the last month. Hence, exporting to Europe can bring a higher gross margin in H1 22 for Vietnamese producers such as HSG, NKG, HPG. Due to the demand recovery after the winter season and the increasing HRC price gap between Europe and Vietnam, the orders...
Steel production costs remain stable in Q4 as iron ore and coking coal prices moved in opposite directions. The construction steel segment's GPM will be flat, while that of HRC can decrease caused by weakening selling prices in Q4. The company's NPAT will remain high in Q4 as sales volume recovers. For H1 22, while the construction steel segment's gross margin can remain stable, profitability in the flat steel segment is forecast to decline. Regarding the Dung Quat 2 steel plant, the company...
· Steel production costs can remain stable in 4Q as iron ore and coking coal prices moved in opposite direction. · Construction steel segment’s GPM will be flat, while HRC’s can decrease caused by weakening selling prices in 4Q. · NPAT can remain high in 4Q as selling volume has been recovering. · For 1H2022, while the construction steel segment’s gross margin can remain stable, profitability in the flat steel segment is forecasted to decrease. · ...
We revise up our forecasts for NPAT in H2 2021 and 2022 as the steel segment's prospects improve. Decarbonisation in the EU and China is changing the steel industry significantly and boosting steel production costs. With less strict environmental requirements, we believe HPG can benefit from this trend until H1 2023. The large differences between HRC prices in Vietnam and other regions, such as the US and Europe, are creating opportunities for exporting flat steel with higher profit margins....
We revise up our forecasts for NPAT in 2H2021 and 2022 as the steel segment’s prospects are becoming better. Decarbonization in the EU and China is changing the steel industry significantly and boosting steel production costs. With less strict environmental requirements, we believe HPG can benefit from this trend until 1H2023. The large differences between HRC prices in Vietnam and other areas, such as the US and Europe, are creating chances for exporting flat steel with higher profit margins. W...
The outperformance of smaller market cap stocks compared with the returns on VN Index in July was generally in line with our expectations. As such, reducing the weight on our recommendations on some large cap stocks in steel and banking sectors, namely HPG, VCB, ACB, in the last month has helped lessen the impact of the market downturn among our coverage. Overall, 10 out of our 11 Buy recommendations have outperformed the VN Index in the last month. Robust Q2 21 earnings growth and the market...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
STEEL EXPORTERS CAN SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COATED STEEL SEGMENT Coated steel consumption in Europe and North America has been stronger in Q1 21 due to expectations that economies will recover with Covid vaccine rollout. Besides, flat steel prices are very different between Vietnam and these markets, leading to higher profitability for exporters. Many domestic producers will run their factories at full capacity until June to meet the robust demand. PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJE...
We think HPG can maintain strong NPAT growth momentum in 2021 mainly due to favourable market condition in the HRC segment. Currently, steel demand has been recovering quickly in large markets, such as China, India and the EU. Besides, weak iron ore supply and expensive transportation costs for steel imports led to increasing prices in imported HRC. This brings a higher gross margin for domestic HRC manufacturers, including HPG. We expect that the company’s steel pipe and coated steel sales c...
We think HPG can maintain strong NPAT growth momentum in 2021 mainly due to the favorable market condition in the HRC segment. Currently, steel demand has been recovering quickly in large markets, such as China, India and the EU. Besides, weak iron ore supply and expensive transportation costs for steel imports led to increasing imported HRC price. This brings a higher gross margin for domestic HRC manufacturers, including HPG. Besides, we expect that the company’s steel pipe and coated steel sa...
Our outlook for HPG is positive in Q1 owing to strong demand for HRC and increasing steel price. We forecast net profit of roughly VND6,200bn, up 172% yoy. The main reason for the high growth comes from the abundant steel billet output from two new blast furnaces in Dung Quat, as well as new HRC production volumes. We expect HRC sales to reach about 730,000 tons, while construction steel output of all types will grow by 12.5% yoy to reach 1.16 million tons. Due to the high demand from coated...
HPG is going to gain market share in both the Southern construction steel market and the flat steel segment. The company is the most competitive steel manufacturer in Vietnam due to its complete value chain, well-developed logistic system and relatively low production costs. Compared with other domestic manufacturers, HPG can reduce production costs and control the timing of orders. In the HRC segment, while Formosa is having difficulties in consuming its products, HPG can use the majority of...
The total consumption in the Vietnamese steel market has been lower during the first eight months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, but monthly figures have showed improvement. All steel sub-segments went down in terms of sale volume in 8M 20 (Figure 1 in full report) compared to 8M 19, except for coated steel. Hot rolled coil suffered the strongest reduction while construction steel sale volume went down by nearly 6% for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. ...
Vietnam's stock market increased sharply in August and became one of the best markets in the world as the VNIndex increased by 10.4% m/m. Looking back on the last few sessions of August, we notice that liquidity was rising in the last part of the month. This was different from the sudden liquidity rises in June and July the when market corrected at that time. By contrast, we found out that when the liquidity and the market are in the same direction, the market trend usually is maintained in t...
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