MARKET COMMENT - HIGHER INDICATORS THIS MORNING AFTER POLITICAL REMARKS, MAGNIT DEAL DOMINATED NEWS FLOWA 2.3% drop on the RTS left Russia the globe's weakest EM yesterday, coinciding with weakness across the EM basket in the late hours of Moscow's main session and foreign policy remarks from President Vladimir Putin. Markets elsewhere were mixed, the MSCI ACWI ending flat. Global and Russia indicators are mixed this morning, while investors will be digesting the stock and index implications of ...
Bank St Petersburg (BSPB RX: O/W; TP RUB60) reported its 3Q21 IFRS results. 3Q21 net income jumped 50% y/y to RUB4.1bn with 17.1% ROAE (though 4% below consensus). CoR of 0.7% was the biggest surprise, although it was offset by RUB0.6bn of an investment property impairment loss. Core banking lines roughly matched expectations – NII grew 17% y/y (supported by the 7% y/y corporate loan book growth and 17% y/y retail loans growth) and F&C income growth was normalized at 13% y/y in Q3 vs (39% y/...
MARKET COMMENT - SIGNS OF CONTRACTION AHEAD OF JACKSON HOLEGlobal markets leaned higher as investors rode recent days' momentum, the MSCI ACWI edging up 0.1%. Russia stood out on the negative side, the RTS declining 0.4% to 1,654. Global indicators suggest contraction this morning but with few definitive catalysts, while speculative headlines ahead of tomorrow's Jackson Hole symposium, ample results releases and US GDP are in focus. STORIES> Weekly inflation in Russia accelerates to 0.1%> Russia...
Bank St Petersburg (BSPB RX: O/W; TP RUB60) reported its 2Q21 IFRS results. 2Q21 net income to came at record-breaking RUB4.9bn, 142% higher y/y with 21.1% ROAE (35-38% ahead of consensus and our estimates). That was driven mainly by better than expected trading income, as well as unexpected RUB0.8bn one-off gain, related recovery of non-performing debt amount previously written-off. Besides, core banking lines roughly matched expectations – NII grew 9% y/y (supported by 22% y/y loan book gro...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - СИТУАЦИЯ НА ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ РЫНКАХ НЕУСТОЙЧИВАЯ, В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ВСТРЕЧА ГЛАВ МИД РОССИИ И США, ДАННЫЕ ПО РЫНКУ НЕФТИ И ПРОТОКОЛ ЗАСЕДАНИЯ ФРСВчера рынки в основном росли, пока не началась торговая сессия в США, в ходе которой фондовые индексы снизились на 0,6-0,9%. Опасения относительно перспектив роста и инфляции продолжали оказывать давление на американский рынок. Россия опередила аналоги: индекс РТС вырос на 1,5% до 1 575 пунктов. Сегодня в центре внимания инвесторов буд...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA-US MEETING, OIL DATA, FED MINUTES AMID FRAGILE GLOBAL MARKETSMarkets saw mostly gains until a weak US session, where key indexes declined 0.6-0.9%. Concerns about growth and inflation again dragged on the US. Russia outperformed, the RTS rising 1.5% to 1,575. Meanwhile, in focus today are several results releases, a likely meeting between Russia's and the US's top diplomats, oil data and news flow, and the Fed minutes. STORIES> Media: Biden to waive sanctions for now agai...
The adoption of ESG principles has already significantly altered the investment landscape and is showing no signs of slowing down. For Russia, the rise of ESG globally has been the main catalyst for its development domestically. We expect that over the near term Russian companies will continue to expand their efforts in the ESG sphere in order to improve their attractiveness to investors and widen the investor base. In this report, we provide an overview of forthcoming changes in legislation per...
MARKET COMMENT - LACK OF US INFLATION, POLITICAL SURPRISES PROVIDES BACKGROUND SUPPORTThe MSCI ACWI edged up 0.5%. The lack of surprises in the US inflation numbers and Congress's stimulus debate provided stock markets more background support. Russia underperformed, the RTS edging down 0.2% after a larger outperformance the day prior. Results, OPEC's monthly report and the ECB decision are among events in focus today. STORIES> Russia registers $13.1 bln current account surplus in 2m21> Lukoil 4Q...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - КОРПОРАТИВНАЯ ОТЧЕТНОСТЬ, НОВЫЙ САНКЦИОННЫЙ ЗАКОНОПРОЕКТ В США, ВЫСТУПЛЕНИЕ ДЖО БАЙДЕНА И МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИИндекс РТС снизился на 0,9% - до 1 387 пунктов, отстав от аналогов. Глобальные индикаторы утром в основном указывают на снижение. В центре внимания будут корпоративная отчетность, новый санкционный законопроект в США, комментарии по внешней политике со стороны США и ЕС, а также глобальная макростатистика. НОВОСТИ> Рост потребительских цен в России замедли...
MARKET COMMENT - RESULTS, NEW SANCTIONS BILL, BIDEN SPEECH, DATA IN FOCUSThe RTS fell 0.9% to 1,387, underperforming peers. Global market indicators are mostly down this morning, while corporate results, a new US sanctions bill, foreign policy comments due from the US and EU, and global macro data are in focus. STORIES> Inflation slows in final week of January for technical reasons> Russian oil and gas: Targeting growth in a low-carbon world> Bank of St Petersburg releases 2021-23 strategy updat...
MARKET COMMENT - SENTIMENT CHANGES LITTLE FOLLOWING US STIMULUS COMPROMISEThe RTS declined 1.2% to 1,403, and underperformed the MSCI EM on a weekly basis for the first time since October. A US stimulus compromise came in line with expectations at best, while US trade threats and global Covid-19 headlines have left morning indicators more negative than not. STORIES> Basic sectors better y-o-y in November, but recovery stalling> CBR Review: CBR keeps rates unchanged amid rising inflation> Novatek...
We look forward to a less eventful year for Russian banks in 2021, although as 2020 closes, our banks and their share prices are in much better shape than could have been imagined back in the summer. As a cyclical play on an economic recovery in 2021, the earnings outlook looks encouraging: 15-20% EPS growth is expected for TCS and BSPB and a more than doubling for VTB from a low base, and despite the 4Q20 rally, valuations don't look overstretched. Those in a position to capitalize on the incre...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - "ВАКЦИННОЕ" РАЛЛИ ПОШЛО НА СПАД; В ИНДЕКС РТС ДОБАВЛЕНЫ НОВЫЕ ЭМИТЕНТЫДинамика глобальных рынков в четверг была неоднозначной. Цены на нефть снизились, а сектора, которым сравнительно выгодны карантинные ограничения, снова оказались в центре внимания, поскольку энтузиазм инвесторов, связанный с успехами вакцинологов, явно пошел на спад. МосБиржа объявила итоги квартального пересмотра своих фондовых индексов. НОВОСТИ> Газпром на 2% сократил газовую инвестпрограмму на следу...
MARKET COMMENT - VACCINE RALLY LOSES STEAM, NEW STOCKS ADDED TO RTSGlobal markets were mixed on Thursday. The oil price retreated, while stay-at-home stocks outperformed as enthusiasm over the vaccine news fades. Moscow Exchange announced the index rebalancing results. STORIES> Gazprom cuts gas business 2021 capex by 2%> Bank of St Petersburg 3Q20 IFRS: Decent quarter, 13% ROE> X5 eyes IPO of online business, expects strong LFLs in December> RusHydro 3Q20 results: Impairments guided at R20 bln i...
Bank St Petersburg (BSPB RX: O/W; TP RUB60) reported its 3Q20 IFRS results. Q3 net income grew 35% y/y with 12.9% ROAE – 19% above consensus and 8% above our upbeat estimate. The bank’s 3Q20 numbers showed a rebound in lending and transactional activity and CoR coming back to pre-crisis levels. With 9M20 earnings growth of 15% y/y and ROAE of 10.1%, we see upside risks to our expectation of 3% y/y EPS drop in 2020. We believe there is an opportunity for management to provide more upbeat guida...
BSPB (O/W; TP RUB60/sh) Supervisory Board recommended RUB3.33/sh. 9M20 interim dividend. Register closes on December 11 (December 10 is ex-div date) Alfa view: The news is POSITIVE for the stock. The dividend payment and amount is broadly in line with our expectations, implying 7.6% dividend yield on yesterday’s’ closing price. In fact that is the 2019 dividend distribution, which BSPB decided to waive in April this year. That corresponds to 20% of 2019 IFRS earnings, in line with bank’s divi...
Bank St Petersburg (O/W; TP RUB60/sh.) reported its 3Q20 RAS financials. 3Q20 bottom line grew 53% y/y with 10.3% ROAE, supported by CoR normalisation and strong performance of trading business. The latter posted RUB1.1bn adj. revenues in Q3, which is above the amount we have in our model for 2H20 (the management earlier guided for RUB1bn in 2H20). NII lagged loan book performance due to timing of loans disbursements – we expect it to translate into solid NII dynamics in Q4. Overall, we see ...
In this uniquely challenging year, Russian banks made it through 1H20 in better shape than had been expected at the height of the lockdown. In this report, we try to connect the dots on the outlook going forward. We pick out 10 things we can learn from recent results and also take a look at what does and doesn't excite us about our covered stocks. We expect three of the four main traded banks (VTB being the exception) to post a H-o-H earnings improvement in 2H20, with TCS and BSPB looking on tra...
BSPB stocks recovered 16% from mid-March lows, underperforming Sberbank and VTB (+31-28%) and MOEX Index (+44%). At the same time, the bank posted resilient performance during 1H20, and its 2020F bottom line set to drop only 3% y/y compared to 30% and 76% drop we expect for Sberbank and VTB respectively. We believe the bank’s capital position is comfortable for distributing 2019 dividends (7.4% yield) – the bank’s Supervisory Board is planned to discuss that in October-November. Longer-ter...
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