In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
PSA: Semiconductors / SPE: Disco (6146 JT) - Enjoying Its Near-Monopoly Disco's performance has improved due to better gross margins and sales growth. The company expects continued growth in revenue and gross profit, despite some challenges. Future growth is anticipated in the AI chip and SiC markets.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba set out the first plan of his administration, which is to spend ¥10tril through FY30 further revitalizing Japan’s one-time globally dominant chip industry. The move comes after a ¥2tril package was announced last year and is seen as party of a ¥50tril private-public investment in Japanese chipmaking over the next decade. Pelham Smithers discusses beneficiaries.
Micron’s FY24 results are a reminder that the chip industry is still doing well. Pelham Smithers considers what is reflected in the shares price of the wafer fab equipment makers and highlights two Japanese plays that offer undemanding valuations.
The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.
The general evaluation of DISCO (JP), a company active in the Semiconductors industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date November 5, 2021, the closing price was JPY 32,15...
It has been nine years since a downturn generated sizable losses for the semiconductor industry and 12 years since the Lehman Crisis led to major structural changes. The length and size of the upcycle has led to worries that the cycle is about to peak and when it does, the downturn could be brutal for both the industry and investors. The current uncertainty is heightened by shortages in many types of semiconductors, with average delivery times pushed out to 20 weeks. Some customers are having to...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Int'l Equity Strategy In using technical analysis, we let the market be our guide. That is, we analyze what is true in the market, utilizing the vast array of tools in our technical analysis toolbox which we then formulate into our outlook using a weight of the evidence approach. In a world where there are no shortages of things to worry about (trade wars, central banks, Trump impeachment, negative interest rates, low global growth, Brexit, Manufacturing weakness, elections, Hong Kong protests,...
After numerous trade war escalations and setbacks, it is easy to become resigned to the belief that there will be no end to the trade war. We have come to expect the unexpected when it comes to President Trump's tactics, so the best course of action may be to assume nothing. Last week's “Phase 1†US-China trade agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, and for now we are taking the truce at face value as a positive development while also knowing that the risk of setbacks/escalati...
Not too bullish, not too bearish Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends. Below we highlight some of these theme...
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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