STRATEGY We are upgrading our outlook on the S&P 500 from neutral to bullish following last week's weekly close above 5783. We previously downgraded our outlook to neutral in our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023, noting that we expected a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase with support coming-in at 5100-5191. Since late-August we have expected 5670-5783 to cap upside on the S&P 500, noting that we would go where the market takes us, i.e., upgrade to bullish on a break...
U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield Rolling Over Large-caps (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain bullish, mid-caps (IJH) are starting to outperform, and small-caps (IWM, IJR) are finally breaking out from major 2-year bases. Market generated information continues to tell us that a resurgence on the inflation front is unlikely; the 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above major 4.35% resistance and appears to be rolling over, while mid-caps are starting to outperform (and potentially small-...
Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...
The S&P 500 managed to close above the key 2,817 resistance level last week as the recovery from 4Q2018 continues. We would like to see a more decisive upside move and for the index stay above this level for a few more days before calling it an official breakout. Overall we remain positive and continue to believe a “buy the dip†strategy is warranted. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to our positive outlook: • An offensive Sector shift: We are upgrading Materials (RTM...
S&P 500 at new all-time highs with uptrend intact Risk-on. The S&P 500 has surpassed the January all-time high, staying above this level for over a week. What's more important is the 5-month uptrend remains intact and cyclical/risk-on areas are reasserting their leadership status. Think technology, discretionary, and biotech/medical devices - all current overweights. At the same time, defensive areas have petered out in terms of relative strength, exactly what we want to see in a healthy bull m...
YTD S&P 500 trading range continues; Avoid broad international exposure Constructive but murky outlook for U.S. equities paints an overall mixed picture, making sector/group/stock selection critical. • Bull case: (1) advance-decline (A-D) lines and other breadth indicators (% of stocks above 50-, 200-day moving averages) are neutral to positive; (2) price and RS uptrends remain intact for risk-on segments, including Technology (XLK), biotech (XBI, IBB), and growth stocks (IUSG); and (3) the ...
The last several months have been that of digestion and consolidation. While Sector and group leadership have taken a back seat to stock selection, rotations still seem to be the norm. We have on a number of occasions indicated that the current rotations are reminiscent of the rotations of 1994. Bill Clinton was President and in that year the Republicans had swept the house under their “Contract with Americaâ€. Clinton had imposed tariffs on steel imports late in 1993 and with the onslaugh...
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary; Outlook increasingly bullish Upgrading Consumer Discretionary. The XLY's price and relative strength are breaking topside resistance to new highs... see below (right) and page 5. Market outlook and internals. Market internals continue to improve, which bolsters our increasingly bullish outlook. The Cyclicals vs. Staples ratio (XLY/XLP) continues to advance to new highs, confirming a risk-on environment. Also, one of the few previously concerning indicators we'...
Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Industrials • Utilities upgrade, Industrials downgrade. Utilities' price and relative strength trends have been hitting higher lows and higher highs since the market bottomed in February, justifying an upgrade to market weight... see below and page 7. As for Industrials, the XLI's price and relative strength trends have continued to deteriorate, prompting us to downgrade the sector to market weight... see below and page 8. • Big picture trends: Commodities ...
LIN:DEU currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.6x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to increase from 6% in 2017 to record-high 8% levels in 2022, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 7% by 2019, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage. However, Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q4 2017 ear...
The SPY currently trades at levels in line with pre-recession valuations relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 20.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E′). At these valuations, market expectations are for sustained profitability in line with recent trends, suggesting reasons to believe the fund is likely fairly valued at worst, with the potential for upside should growth improve going forward S&P 500 companies have seen Uniform ROA (ROA') plateau around 13% levels since 2010. While profitabilit...
ï€ The SPY currently trades at levels relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings not seen since 2001, with a 23.7x Uniform P/E (V/E'). Expectations initially appear high, with the market expecting Uniform ROA (ROA') to sustain at forecasted peak 28% levels, with 6% Uniform Asset growth (Asset' growth), however upon deeper review, expectations do not appear unreasonable ï€ S&P companies have consistently improved ROA' every year since 2002, seeing ROA' rise from 13% then, to 26% in 2016, and ...
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