The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.
The decision that we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Orange Masmovil and Digi have reached an agreement for a remedy package in Spain. We provide our thoughts on the package in this piece. The headline “Digi buying spectrum” is bad, but we think that the reality and specifics of the package are nowhere near as bad as the headline would suggest.
Masmovil (MM) has reported a good set of numbers, with Telco SR better at +7.7% y/y from +6.1% y/y in Q2. EBITDA growth y/y is much worse sequentially, but quarterly trends can be volatile: 9m EBITDA growth was +7.7% y/y vs +7.0% y/y in 2022. MM gave some interesting updates to the merger process on the call, which we include in this report.
While the Masmovil-Orange decision is probably the biggest upcoming decision you have heard of, the biggest decision for the European telecoms industry that most people haven’t heard of, is coming up next month at the World Radio Congress : the longer-term use for the 6.4-7.1GHz band in Europe.
The Spanish market right now is in a period of great uncertainty, until we know the outcome of the Masmovil-Orange ruling and can gauge the impact of any remedies. To try to answer that, we recently published an in-depth note trying to recreate the EC’s analysis on GUPPI ratios, suggesting that the sale of sub-brands, most likely to Digi, should be an acceptable remedy (even if Digi is trying to ask for more), and this shouldn’t destabilise the market too much.
Masmovil (MM) has reported a good set of numbers, with Telco SR and EBITDA trends better than in Q2. A decision on the Orange-MM deal deal is due on 4th September. Ahead of that decision, we commissioned a survey in Spain to look into switching patterns in the event of a shutdown of current provider, so that we can work out diversion and GUPPI ratios for all the various Orange and Masmovil brands (this builds on and expands the work we did in March 2022, looking at a similar topic).
As part of our expanding high yield coverage, we now have a full model and coverage of Masmovil (MM). We look at the latest quarterly trends in this report following the recent Q1 results, including feedback from the call. As a reminder, Orange CFO talked about Orange’s future plans for MM on the recent NDR roadshow we hosted – HERE.
Masmovil held its Q3 earnings call today. We provide feedback in this short note, including an update on Spanish pricing, following confirmation from Telefonica that it will lift some of its prices in Spain, recent comments by Digi, and Masmovil on the call today.
As part of our High Yield quarterly product, we publish our forecasts for those high yield names for which we have full coverage (close to 85% of the sector), and Q1 22 country snapshots for all the high yield names to provide context and support ahead of earnings.
After months of speculation, an in-market mobile deal has been announced in Europe, between Orange and Masmovil in Spain. We think that the deal is a good one for Orange, and that the exchange ratio is fair for both it and Masmovil.
The M&A rumours are seemingly never ending at the moment. Vodafone-Iliad yesterday (read about that HERE), and Orange-Masmovil today. Vodafone have of course themselves been linked with Masmovil recently as well. In this quick report we look at the implications of an Orange-Masmovil deal.
Masmovil hosted a Q3 call yesterday and gave some details on its future Portugal plans for the first time. We look at these plans in this report. We still struggle to see a compelling new entrant case, but that is probably irrelevant as launch (or threat of credible launch) is likely to have a material negative impact to existing players, NOS, Meo (Altice) and Vodafone Portugal.
The last 10 days have been busy for sector newsflow - and on top of that, we also held our 6th NSR/ BCG 5G conference. One of the topics to come out of company commentary last week was a sharp increase in the rhetoric around the potential for in-market consolidation - both between operators and tower companies. In case you missed it, our Global Weekly published over the weekend ran through our latest thoughts on this as it pertains to the European telecoms operators. It probably wasn't at the to...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
NEWS SUMMARY: AMADEUS, ATRESMEDIA, BANKIA, CAIXABANK, FCC, MÁSMÓVIL, MEDIA SECTOR. MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY Stock markets ended in the red It was a session of losses in Europe, which were replicated in Wall Street, dragged down by growth and momentum. Within the Euro STOXX, almost all sectors ended in the red, with Travel & Leisure and Pharma being the best relative performers vs. Banks and Insurance, which saw the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the Euro zone, August’s final inflatio...
NEWS SUMMARY: CHANGES IBEX, IAG, INDITEX, MASMOVIL. MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY The ECB boosts the euro once again C. Lagarde’s more upbeat message on the economic recovery of the EU left the euro trading at levels of 1.1900 against the dollar, which led stock markets to fall slightly. Within the Euro STOXX, the best-performing sectors were Travel & Leisure and Autos vs. Construction and Insurance, which saw the biggest losses. On the macro side, in the ECB meeting, the monetary policy was...
COMPAÑÃAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: CAMBIOS EN EL IBEX 35, IAG, INDITEX, MASMOVIL EUROPA: VOLKSWAGEN El BCE vuelve a impulsar al euro El discurso más optimista de C. Lagarde sobre la recuperación económica de Europa ha llevado al euro a niveles de 1,1900 en su cruce frente al dólar, lo que supuso ligeras caÃdas en bolsa. En el Euro STOXX los mejores sectores fueron Viajes&Ocio y Autos frente a Construcción y Seguros, que terminaron con las mayores pérdidas. Por el lado macro...
NEWS SUMMARY: ACS, DIA, IBERDROLA, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, MASMOVIL, PROSEGUR CASH. MARKETS YESTERDAY AND TODAY Strong rally in the US A highly positive session in both Europe and the US, with US tech companies recovering part of the losses from previous days. Thus, in the Euro STOXX all sectors closed in positive numbers, with Insurance and Technology leading the way, while Travel & Leisure and Autos were the worst relative performers. On the macro side, in Europe, the EU would be studying the po...
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