The Japanese stock market’s take on the surprise victory of Sanae Takaichi in the LDP Presidential race suggested that it wasn’t so much a repeat of the “Koizumi Boom” from 20 years ago, but rather a brand new “Takaichi Boom”, and we saw the Nikkei 225 jump +4.8% to just under 48,000. Pelham Smithers compares and contrasts the impact and flags “Takaichi Stocks”. Importantly, market valuations suggest further upside.
PSA: Daikin - China Uncertainty & Volume vs Pricing & Mix ( Will Nestuk report ) Our forecasts remain above consensus. China was weaker than we expected and remains the main risk. We've penciled in a 20% QoQ decline in sales, but note Daikin's strong record in China and think they can offset lower volumes with pricing, mix and cost reductions. The US & EU are ok, and we've incorporated a Y143/$ level in our assumptions. The shares have corrected a bit bringing valuation premium back down to f...
Int'l Equity Strategy Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US. In our April 18, 2023 Int'l Macro Vision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and it appears that this is where things are headed. The break above $93 signals a 1-year inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, a very bullish pattern that provides a “measured move” target of $110.29, or roughly 18% upside. W...
FY23 Q1 OP is likely to be a record thanks to strong A/C sales in China / Europe, the weak yen and the Chemicals Division also coming through with record high earnings. Consensus sees Daikin beating its FY23 OP guidance by 6~7%. Yet the larger concern is whether Daikin's environmental strategy can solidify its leading global position. Analyst William Nestuk discusses the main issues.
At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks. Table of Contents Overview 3 Background: 4 Japan’s Economic Outlook 5 Ja...
PSA: Daikin - Outperformance Q2 - FY22 OP Maintained ( Will Nestuk report ) Our Daikin FY22 OP estimate was 14% ahead of consensus and the highest on the street in our 30 June update. N. America drives earnings on the "critical volume" effect we anticipated coupled with a strong China rebound off the Q1 Shanghai lockdown. Please see report for details.
The general evaluation of MITSUBISHI (JP), a company active in the Industrial Suppliers industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date March 8, 2022, the closing price was JPY 3,967.00 and ...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of DAIKIN INDUSTRIES (JP), active in the Industrial Machinery industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 0 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered moderately risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date January 28, 2022, the closing price was ...
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDS. (JP), a company active in the Industrial Machinery industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 4 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date January 21, 2022, the closing price was JPY 3,051.00 and its expected value wa...
Although the Japanese economy, politics and stock market seem to be where they were this time last year, there is a seismic shift going on in the way the Japanese stock market behaves that could make investing in Japan in 2022 quite different to previous years. We look at how and why this shift has taken place and what it means for investing in Japan in the coming year.
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Pelham Smithers presents his strategy for Q3 2021 and the changes to PSA's stock Focus List Table of Contents Overview 3 Background 4 Valuations & Value 5 The Case for “Muddle Through” 6 Consumer Spending 7 The Labour Market 7 The Currency and the Carry Trade 8 The BoJ and Policy 9 Japan’s Stuttering Economy 10 Stock Performance and Earnings Expectations 12 Catalysts: Digital Transformation, Semiconductors, Price Hikes ...
Recent jump in commodity prices such as copper and steel already exceed the levels of the FY17 spike and look to keep rising. Daikin failed to hedge. H1 OP FY21 damage inevitable but we assume recovery by Q3 on good cost control, residential A/C price increases and, in our model, no Covid cost impact after Q2. Please see attached report.
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