At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks. Table of Contents Overview 3 Background: 4 Japan’s Economic Outlook 5 Ja...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just awarded an improved star rating to FAST RETAILING (JP), active in the Apparel Retailers industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title receives an improved star rating and now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. With regard to its market behaviour, it remains unchanged and can be qualified as moderately risky. theScreener considers that these elements allow slightly upgrading its rating to Neutral. As of the analysis date November 2, 202...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Uncertainty Hits Global Equities MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) recently broke below the $81.50 short-term support level we were watching, which tells us that the important $77 support level is likely to be tested. While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. · Market Dynamics Still Cons...
Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We With broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) hitting multi-month highs and the US dollar holding below resistance we continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, & EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish. · Key Levels On MSCI ACWI & EM Indexes. Over the inte...
Breakouts Proliferate; Japan, Cyclicals In Focus Last week we pointed out that the MSCI ACWI and several major country indexes were breaking above key resistance levels and that investors were rotating into economically sensitive Sectors (e.g., Discretionary, Materials, Manufacturing/Industrials). This led us to believe the case for a confirmed breakout was building. Upside follow-through this week across a number of countries tells us the bulls are in control. · Major Global Indexes....
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s third-quarter results were below our expectation with sales and business profits up 7.3% and 9.8%, respectively. The nearly double-digit profit growth was attributable to growth in the moaty Uniqlo in Asia and a leap in Gu’s profits. We anticipate the 27% same-store growth posted by domestic Uniqlo in June as well as reduced markdowns in the end of season to boost the fourth-quarter profits considerably. However, the hurdle to meet the company’s full-year profi...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s third-quarter results were below our expectation with sales and business profits up 7.3% and 9.8%, respectively. The nearly double-digit profit growth was attributable to growth in the moaty Uniqlo in Asia and a leap in Gu’s profits. We anticipate the 27% same-store growth posted by domestic Uniqlo in June as well as reduced markdowns in the end of season to boost the fourth-quarter profits considerably. However, the hurdle to meet the company’s full-year profi...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s third-quarter results were below our expectation with sales and business profits up 7.3% and 9.8%, respectively. The nearly double-digit profit growth was attributable to growth in the moaty Uniqlo in Asia and a leap in Gu’s profits. We anticipate the 27% same-store growth posted by domestic Uniqlo in June as well as reduced markdowns in the end of season to boost the fourth-quarter profits considerably. However, the hurdle to meet the company’s full-year profi...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing revised down its full-year profit guidance as we had expected. The revised profit target, lowered by 3.7% from the initial guidance, is now a touch above our forecasts. Despite a sizable profit decline in the domestic Uniqlo business, the Gu business achieved a surprisingly robust growth. We have maintained our fair value estimate of JPY 47,000. While we believe its cost advantages and intangible assets will sustain the group’s growth fueled by Uniqlo’s global exp...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing revised down its full-year profit guidance as we had expected. The revised profit target, lowered by 3.7% from the initial guidance, is now a touch above our forecasts. Despite a sizable profit decline in the domestic Uniqlo business, the Gu business achieved a surprisingly robust growth. We have maintained our fair value estimate of JPY 47,000. While we believe its cost advantages and intangible assets will sustain the group’s growth fueled by Uniqlo’s global ex...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s first-quarter profits, down more than 8%, came in below our expectation and the company’s target as unseasonal weather depressed demand for warm clothes. Given increased markdowns in Japan and East Asia including greater China and Korea into the second quarter, we have maintained our forecasts, slightly below the profit guidance, and fair value estimate of JPY 47,000. Despite our belief that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain the group g...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s first-quarter profits, down more than 8%, came in below our expectation and the company’s target as unseasonal weather depressed demand for warm clothes. Given increased markdowns in Japan and East Asia including greater China and Korea into the second quarter, we have maintained our forecasts, slightly below the profit guidance, and fair value estimate of JPY 47,000. Despite our belief that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain the group g...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s fourth-quarter results came in largely in line with our expectations. We have lifted our fair value estimate to JPY 47,000 from JPY 45,000, mainly to reflect a modest 1%-3% lift in our profit projection over the explicit forecast period and lowered tax-rate assumptions, given increased overseas contribution and reduced risks of future impairment of goodwill. While we are convinced that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain group growth, fuele...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s fourth-quarter results came in largely in line with our expectations. We have lifted our fair value estimate to JPY 47,000 from JPY 45,000, mainly to reflect a modest 1%-3% lift in our profit projection over the explicit forecast period and lowered tax-rate assumptions, given increased overseas contribution and reduced risks of future impairment of goodwill. While we are convinced that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain group growth, fuele...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s fourth-quarter results came in largely in line with our expectations. We have lifted our fair value estimate to JPY 47,000 from JPY 45,000, mainly to reflect a modest 1%-3% lift in our profit projection over the explicit forecast period and lowered tax-rate assumptions, given increased overseas contribution and reduced risks of future impairment of goodwill. While we are convinced that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain group growth, fuele...
Narrow-moat Fast Retailing’s fourth-quarter results came in largely in line with our expectations. We have lifted our fair value estimate to JPY 47,000 from JPY 45,000, mainly to reflect a modest 1%-3% lift in our profit projection over the explicit forecast period and lowered tax-rate assumptions, given increased overseas contribution and reduced risks of future impairment of goodwill. While we are convinced that Uniqlo’s cost advantage and intangible assets will sustain group growth, fuele...
After taking a fresh look of Fast Retailing, we have raised its moat rating to narrow from none and maintained the stable moat trend rating and the fair value estimate of JPY 45,000. Brand equity and a cost advantage in functional fabric and raw material procurement derived from its scale, form its moat sources. Despite our optimistic view on Uniqlo’s growth potential in Asia, we view Fast Retailing’s shares as overvalued, trading at a 25% premium to our fair value estimate, and prefer to ow...
After taking a fresh look of Fast Retailing, we have raised its moat rating to narrow from none and maintained the stable moat trend rating and the fair value estimate of JPY 45,000. Brand equity and a cost advantage in functional fabric and raw material procurement derived from its scale, form its moat sources. Despite our optimistic view on Uniqlo’s growth potential in Asia, we view Fast Retailing’s shares as overvalued, trading at a 25% premium to our fair value estimate, and prefer to ow...
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