In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
Int'l Equity Strategy Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US. In our April 18, 2023 Int'l Macro Vision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and it appears that this is where things are headed. The break above $93 signals a 1-year inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, a very bullish pattern that provides a “measured move” target of $110.29, or roughly 18% upside. W...
TOYOTA INDUSTRIES (JP), a company active in the Auto Parts industry, loses a star(s) at the fundamental level and sees its general evaluation downgraded. The independent financial analyst theScreener just removed a fundamental star(s) for a 2 over 4-star rating. As such, market behaviour remains unchanged and is evaluated as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the loss of a star(s) merits downgrade to the general evaluation of the title, which passes to Neutral. As of the analysis date J...
Although the Japanese economy, politics and stock market seem to be where they were this time last year, there is a seismic shift going on in the way the Japanese stock market behaves that could make investing in Japan in 2022 quite different to previous years. We look at how and why this shift has taken place and what it means for investing in Japan in the coming year.
Japan's and Toyota's electrification efforts seem to develop in parallel: the Japanese government is increasingly committing to the creation of a domestic BEV market, and Toyota significantly raised its BEV sales target for 2030. Accordingly, we expect to see strong growth in Japanese BEV sales and a more prominent position for Toyota among global players.
PSA Auto Components: Toyota Industries (6202 JT) - New Earnings Plateau Toyota Industries is on the cusp of an earnings upswing. Rapid top-line growth (+25% YoY FY21; +7% FY22) to support record Forklift and Automotive OP. Global leader in Forklifts and vehicle A/C compressors remains at low valuations. Please see attached report by Will Nestuk.
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
William Nestuk thinks the outlook for TICO remains positive, though investors may wish to wait for the Q1 results and for further clarity over costs. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the Automobile division prevails and the US forklift certification issue remains.
Int'l Equity Strategy In using technical analysis, we let the market be our guide. That is, we analyze what is true in the market, utilizing the vast array of tools in our technical analysis toolbox which we then formulate into our outlook using a weight of the evidence approach. In a world where there are no shortages of things to worry about (trade wars, central banks, Trump impeachment, negative interest rates, low global growth, Brexit, Manufacturing weakness, elections, Hong Kong protests,...
Breakout probability on the rise The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. • Emerging Markets. The MSCI EM index exhibits bullish price and RS reversals -- add exposure/market weight. This is a major positive for both EM and global equities as it is a characteristic consist...
After numerous trade war escalations and setbacks, it is easy to become resigned to the belief that there will be no end to the trade war. We have come to expect the unexpected when it comes to President Trump's tactics, so the best course of action may be to assume nothing. Last week's “Phase 1†US-China trade agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, and for now we are taking the truce at face value as a positive development while also knowing that the risk of setbacks/escalati...
Toyota Industries is benefiting from its ties to Toyota in multiple ways, ranging from cross shareholdings to its involvement in Toyota's hit model, the RAV4. It also has top global share in forklifts and despite some growth bumps in FY19, is looking to cement its position through both organic growth and savvy M&A. William Nestuk takes us through the company's current and prospective positioning.
v The Weekly Comment Joel Scheiman reviews the week which after hitting a 27-yr high on Oct 1, has been knocked back by contagion from sliding Asian markets and rising interest rates. v Reports / Flash Notes Summaries Stretching the MLCC Market: Implications for the Industry and Murata Mfg (6981 JP) Does “Murata Good, Skyworks / Avago / Qorvo Better†Still Hold True? September US Auto Sales – Japan Automakers Underperform on Falling Incentives Foster Electric (6794 JP) – C...
US Auto Sales September: Japan Automakers Underperform on Falling Incentives US auto sales declined 5.6% YoY to 1.42mil vehicles in September; the decline was due to a high base of comparison (last year’s sales had been inflated by replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey) and one less selling day compared to Sep. 2017: dsr-adjusted sales fell 1.9% YoY. SAAR (excluding Audi sales numbers, not yet available) rose above the 17mil mark for the first time in three months, reaching 17.44mil v...
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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