Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785 Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments which led us to believe a break below 5500 and the potential for a prolonged downturn was likely. A historic selloff ensued. ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
The Pullback Finally Begins; Testing 2-Month Supports We have discussed for months that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. While this has not happened yet (only two consecutive days so far, yesterday and Friday), it does appear to be going in that direction as the U.S. dollar (DXY) climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking abo...
More Long-Term Breakouts; Bullish Outlook Intact We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days. There is nothing that says this can't continue. With that said, once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs on the S&P 500 and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that), with next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $42...
Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist The S&P 500 is just below 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is just below $350-$355 support. Given they were only 1%-1.5% below these supports at last week's lows, we cannot call them "decisive" breakdowns quite yet. Regardless, these levels are now resistance (in addition to the 200-day MA on SPX), and they are important lines-in-the-sand moving forward. We cannot be bullish if the SPX and QQQ are below the aforementioned levels, but it would be bu...
Awaiting Powell's Speech Today and CPI Thursday We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023. We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490). In our view, reducing risk near resistance and adding risk near support will be key to outperforming in 2023 (alongside Sector/stock selection). Shorter...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Bull Flag Breakout For Gold We believe the weight of the evidence suggests a mixed, but overall constructive market, and we continue to favor buying pullbacks to the 4000-4045 range on the S&P 500. S&P 500. The S&P 500 has pulled back after being extended as it ran into resistance at the megaphone pattern. We believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities and we are constructive as long as the S&P 500 is above major 4000-4045 support. Continue to add exposure to cyclical value are...
Upgrading Materials To Overweight We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. Throw in new developments which include a decisive breakdown in the US dollar, price and RS breakouts for the Materials Sector, and a bullish RS reversal for small-caps, and we continue to believe the positives h...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
U.S. dollar breaking down; Gold breaking out The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. Below we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. • U.S. dolla...
Technical indications mixed; Outlook remains cautious Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week's Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious, supported by several observations highlighted below. • U.S. dollar (USD) weakness coming? W...
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