reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Testing Support In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) displayed bearish false breakouts, (3) fell back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) violated their 1+ month uptrends, and (5) closed below their 20-day and 50-day MAs for the first time in over a month. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, and tha...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact As discussed throughout the first half of January, and reiterated in our 2/3/25 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We also discussed our non-concern as it related to the Canada/Mexico tariff situation, calling the pullback a buying opportunity. Now, we are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidatio...
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
EUSC WDMTR ERP HDG EQ
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED INDEX FUND
ISHARES MSCI UAE CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Tariff Tantrum Underway; Market Dynamics Still Risk-On As discussed throughout the first half of January, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved relatively quickly, and therefore we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity. Bottom line: market dynamics remain risk-on, and our outlook remains bullish as long as t...
EIS EISEN- UND HUETTENWERKE AG
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
FDN FIRST TRUST DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX FUND
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
A14Y8J ARK WEB X.0 ETF NO PAR VALUE PER SHARE
ISHARES MSCI UAE CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the Decembe...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
VGK VANGUARD MSCI EUROPEAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Sell In May And Go Away? The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. We are entering a seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500 ("sell in May and go away") which could lead to some softness, however that alone is no reason to be bearish and we continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resista...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrades: Industrials, Energy, Small-Caps, Int'l Equities Market dynamics remain positive and we believe the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below are several observations that help lead us to our bullish outlook. · Small-Caps Leading The Way. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out to all-time highs and RS shows a major bullish reversal -- overweight small-caps. We view this as an important risk-on signal and is exactly what we would expect to see in a broad-based bull...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Still Bullish, But With Reservations And just like that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors...
STT STATE STREET CORPORATION
PHM PULTEGROUP INC.
WDAY WORKDAY INC. CLASS A
TOL TOLL BROTHERS INC.
PENN PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC.
NVR NVR INC.
MCRI MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INC.
LEN LENNAR CORPORATION CLASS A
CHDN CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED
BYD BOYD GAMING CORPORATION
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
AMP AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC.
RRR RED ROCK RESORTS INC. CLASS A
ZEN ZENDESK INC.
DHI D.R. HORTON INC.
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
CCI CROWN CASTLE INTERNATIONAL CORP
ERI CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INC
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
TROW T. ROWE PRICE GROUP
TWLO TWILIO INC. CLASS A
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
OKTA OKTA INC. CLASS A
MDB MONGODB INC. CLASS A
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
SMAR SMARTSHEET
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
PLAN ANAPLAN
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
SPNS SAPIENS INTERNATIONAL CORP. N.V.
BX BLACKSTONE GROUP INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
IWR ISHARES RUSSELL MID-CAP ETF
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A118W4 ISHARES MSCI EUROPE MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF
RSX.. VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
EUSC WDMTR ERP HDG EQ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
XPH SPDR S&P PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
DXGE WISDOMTREE GERMANY HEDGED EQUITY FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in ...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
RTH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
PJP INVESCO DYNAMIC PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market at key inflection point, still vulnerable We remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook as indicators continue to send mixed signals. By and large, new developments have been negative, but many areas we often look to in order to gauge risk sentiment - which also give us clues to where the market is likely headed next - are testing important support levels. • Negative developments. Several negative developments support our belief that the market may be poised for further weakness,...
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
CARZ FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLOBAL AUTO INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Staples, Downgrading Energy We are downgrading our outlook to neutral as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, weakness in “Dr.†copper, and crude oil's breakdown. • Key levels on S&P 500, U.S. dollar. Our neutral outlook is supported by a consolidating market and a number of mixed technical signals. On th...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWA ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF
VOX VANGUARD TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES ETFS
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Communications and Energy We remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities and we are encouraged by recent developments highlighted below which are primarily of the bullish variety. • Upgrades: We are upgrading Comm. Services (XLC) to overweight and equal-weighted Energy (RYE) to market weight due to an RS breakout for the XLC and bullish RS reversals for several energy ETFs (RYE, XOP, IEO). Add exposure. See charts below and Sector comments on pages 4-5 for actionable ideas. • A...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
CARZ FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLOBAL AUTO INDEX FUND
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KCE SPDR KBW CAPITAL MARKETS ETF
EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
IEO ISHARES U.S. OIL & GAS EXPLORA
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
A14MTT ISHARES CURRENCY HEDGED MSCI GERMANY ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Cyclicals at a critical juncture Our general outlook remains positive and unchanged on U.S. and foreign equities, however there are a number of concerns that still exist -- particularly as it relates to some key cyclical areas of the market. If the concerns highlighted below are eventually alleviated, we believe a more bullish outlook would be warranted. • Concern #1: Several cyclical areas of the market remain below resistance, including Financials (both in the U.S. and Europe - XLF, EUFN),...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
IYZ ISHARES US TELECOMMUNICATION
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A1138P ISHARES MSCI COLOMBIA CAPPED ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Positive outlook intact Overall we remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities. Below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion: • Broadening yield curve inversions = recession? The more pronounced yield curve inversion (3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y) is unsettling and is a concern of ours. At the same time we believe it does not automatically equate to a recession in the near-term, and lower yields may actually serve to stimulate the economy. Additionally, high yield spreads a...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
EWH ISHARES MSCI HONG KONG ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
A1138P ISHARES MSCI COLOMBIA CAPPED ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Macro Vision: Bullish trends intact; Technology Leading
STRATEGY: UP AND AWAY The market's bounce off of the December, 2018 low was a swift “V†reversal. While we often see a retest of such events, our outlook since that time has repeatedly suggested that a retest may not occur. The reason has to do with the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. We have only reached oversold extremes similar to what we saw in Q4, 2018 once since the 2009 low. At that time, which was 2011, and on the back of perceived, further, economic...
NXPIN NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV
STMICROELECTRONICS N.V. ADS
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
RNG RINGCENTRAL INC. CLASS A
IVAC INTEVAC INC.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
ATEN A10 NETWORKS INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
SCWX SECUREWORKS
NOVT NOVANTA INC
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
DWDP DUPONT DE NEMOURS INC.
FXI ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials; Overweight Small-Caps The S&P 500 has continued to trickle higher along with positive expectations surrounding trade and Fed policy. 2,817 is the current resistance level we are watching on the S&P 500. Considering the market's melt-up, we believe potential exists for a “sell the news†event once a deal on trade is announced. At the same time, we continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process and that a “buy the dip†mentality remains warrante...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
TUR ISHARES MSCI TURKEY ETF
VUG VANGUARD GROWTH ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
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