Lockout Rally Continues As discussed for the past two weeks, we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe the S&P 500 (SPX) made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which is where we initially discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass to look for a local bottom to develop. We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well. We titled last week's 5/6/25 Compass "Lockout R...
Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. We will remain cautious and we will continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 is below its 200-day MA (currently 5750) or 5785 level. There have been substantial trading opportunities in both directions, and we expect that to continue; we discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass that a logic...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols bymarket-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...
ICL GROUP (IL), a company active in the Speciality Chemicals industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 3 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date January 21, 2022, the closing price was ILS 32.81 and its expected value was estimated at I...
Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...
Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March. Financials, Copper, US Dollar. These three areas were a primary focus in last week's Compass, and they have sin...
Breakaway Gaps In Place Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive. · S&P 500 Breakaway Gap. The S&P 500 broke out to all-time highs this past Thursday, and yesterday displayed so...
S&P 500 Testing 3870 Support; 10-Year Yield In Focus As the S&P 500 pulls back to logical support at 3870, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support our overall bullish outlook. While the positives heavily outweigh the negatives, the rising 10-year Treasury yield is threatening to become a headwind. The irony here is that we have outlined rising yields as a longstanding tailwind that has helped support our bullish outlook since early November 2020. We discuss this risk below, in ...
More Room To Run; Downgrading Utilities Ongoing bullish market dynamics and an absence of breakdowns for major indexes and Sectors continue to support our bullish outlook. As we explain below, new risk-on signals coming from emerging market equities, commodities, and Treasuries continue to be of the bullish variety. We believe this suggests equities have plenty of room to run higher; buy dips. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000. Key support levels we are watching on the S&P 500 includ...
Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth vs. Value Stalemate Continues Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. · S&P 500. The S&P 500 is currently testing short-term support in the 3630-3645 zone, which happens to coincide with a multi-week uptrend. If this area fails to hold, the next important support levels to watch would be 3588 foll...
Bullish Outlook Intact Our outlook remains bullish as market dynamics continue to suggest the path of least resistance remains higher for US and foreign equities. Continue to buy dips. · S&P 500. The S&P 500 continues to consolidate/back-and-fill, something we suggested in our 11/10/20 Compass as likely to happen following the ~9% gains in the week surrounding the election which resulted in a bullish reversal. We view recent consolidation following the bullish reversal as healthy as th...
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