Buy the Pullback Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5600-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Once past the election, s...
Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher. We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670. The prior two election years (2016 and 2020) saw 5% and 10% pullbacks, respectfully, during Septem...
Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...
Upgrading Materials to Market Weight We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. This still has not happened, meaning the short-term trend remains bullish. Closes below their 20-day MAs have been extremely rare since the October 2023 bottom, with buyers stepping-in immediately. Still, we need to be prepared. If we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 an...
Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. This is a hallmark of bull markets; we will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change. In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact. Gold and Silver Breaking Out as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) a...
PX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050 We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490). Therefore, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care, and gold miners). A break above 4200 o...
A director at Summit Materials Inc sold 8,104 shares at 27.630USD and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Dips In last week's Compass we posited that the bulls were back in control as the bullish gap from Sept. 28 was left unfilled despite the president and first lady getting COVID-19. With breadth continuing to improve and several cyclical areas of the market breaking out to new highs, our outlook remains bullish and we believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted. · Key Levels. Last week we said to watch resistance levels of 3425 on the S&P 500 and 11,606 on...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
AXL currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 11.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E′). At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade from 17% in 2018 to 5% in 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 10% in 2020, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage. Meanwhile, management is confident about their margins, sales, and cost managem...
Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM:USA) currently trades above recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings with a 24.1x Uniform P/E, implying bullish expectations for the firm. However, management may be concerned about their pricing, cash balance, and competitive landscape. Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain growth, Greenfield development, and net income growth attributable to Summit Inc. Furthermore, they may be concerned about pricing and margin ...
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